Well true-believers, you’re lucky your Bruins blogger has a full time job. Why, you ask? Because I just went out and blew fifty bucks on hockey projection magazines so I could write this blog for you. Don’t all thank me at the same time now. Truthfully, I would’ve bought them anyways.

While I’m on the subject of buying stuff, and I hate to steal Kevin Gibson’s bit, is anyone else more than just a little tired of cashiers trying to up-sell? I went out to my local Blockbuster Video to rent The Number 23 starring Jim Carrey (who I’m convinced simply cannot make a bad film) and when I got to the counter I had to hear ten minutes of info on their rewards card. I have too many cards in my wallet as it is. If I took all of the cards I was offered in one day, I think my wallet would look like Costanza’s.

I then went to my local Pioneer Gas Station and bought thirty bucks of gas and those magazines. The cashier was nice enough to inform me that if I signed up for their card for a flat rate, I could earn points which are essentially like cash. I spent about eighty bucks at this gas station and they told me I could save a whole two dollars on my purchase. TWO DOLLARS! Of course, all of this is nothing in comparison to what you get to listen to at the bank if you’re unlucky enough to have to go inside. If you’re a cashier and you’re reading this: stop up-selling unless your boss is standing right there!

But I digress….

So in this blog I’ll write out (in slightly shorter form) the Bruins information and projections contained in two The Hockey News magazines, the Official NHL 2008 Yearbook, McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook, The Score Sports Forecaster, and Gerz’s brain.



The Hockey News Ultimate Pool Guide 2007-08:


Player projections:
Savard, 100 pts, 25 goals (+4 pts from last year)
Bergeron, 82 pts, 30 goals (+12 pts from last year)
Murray, 58 pts, 29 goals (+14 pts from last year)
Kessel, 54 pts, 20 goals (+ 25 pts from last year)
Sturm, 49 pts, 24 goals (+3 pts from last year)
Chara, 47 pts, 13 goals (+4 pts from last year)
Bochenski, 40 pts, 18 goals (+16 pts from last year)
Wideman, 35 pts, 8 goals (+10 pts from last year)
Axelsson, 32 pts, 12 goals (+5 pts from last year)
Kobasew, 30 pts, 18 goals (+11 pts from last year)

The increase in points for Phil Kessel is the second highest increase projected by the magazine (the first being Scott Gomez). The magazine lists Brandon Bochenski as a candidate to crash and burn this year (the piece is warning poolies about this).

The magazine mentions that Fernandez will not be as good with the Bruins and will only just barely be the number one. They gave him 21 wins, a GAA of 2.7 and a SP of .905.

The magazine actually is rather complimentary towards Thomas and projects him for 14 wins, 2.75 GAA and a SP of .906.

Here is the truly baffling part of the magazine to me: They’ve projected that every Bruin will have an increase in points scored. They’ve also somehow projected that we will win the same amount of games despite the improved goaltending tandem and massive increase in points scored per player. Then they go on to somehow project us as being the worst team in the East whereas the Canadiens (whose players are not projected to have as big a pick-up offensively) are in 11th and the Flyers will seemingly battle for the 8th spot. The ravaged Islanders and Devils and even the barely changed Washington Capitals are way out of our league apparently. I don’t understand how they can project that everyone on the team will be awesome but the team will do worse than last year. Do you?

The magazine lists stats for face offs and I can’t help but notice that neither Phil Kessel nor Mark Mowers could win one if their lives depended on it.

*Schaefer was projected for 50 pts (15 goals) but was listed on the Sens’ roster. I’m not sure if that affects their projections or not (you would hope it would).*



McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook 2007-2008:


Player Projections:
Savard, 91 pts, 25 goals (-5 pts from last year)
Bergeron, 80 pts, 27 goals (+10 pts from last year)
Murray, 60 pts, 33 goals (+16 pts from last year)
Kessel, 56 pts, 24 goals (+27 pts from last year)
Sturm, 50 pts, 22 goals (+6 pts from last year)
Chara, 49 pts, 14 goals (+6 pts from last year)
Schaefer, 41 pts, 16 goals (-5 pts from last year)
Krejci, 39 pts, 8 goals (I’m not sure why they assume he will be in the NHL)
Axelsson, 36 pts, 13 goals (+9 pts from last year)
Bochenski, 31 pts, 16 goals (+7 pts from last year)
Kobasw, 30 pts, 12 goals (+11 pts from last year)
Wideman, 29 pts, 7 goals (+1 pt from last year)

The magazine projects that the Bruins will be the 23rd best team in the NHL and the 13th best in the East, in front of the NYI and the Trashers (surprising).

Phil Kessel is listed as a player likely to have a breakout season. David Krejci is listed as a candidate for the Calder Trophy. Out of their list of the top 150 prospects, Boston has seven; they are topped by Montreal, Chicago and NYR and tied by Calgary and LA.

The magazine did not project for the goalies but did project a total of 227 goals for and a total of 269 goals against. That’s just barely better than last year.


The Hockey News 2007-08 Yearbook (Darcy Tucker cover):

The magazine sticks with the previous THN prediction that the Bruins will come in dead last in the East and overall will only be better than the Oilers, Blue Jackets and Coyotes.

This magazine gives the Bruins a D+ as the team grade but says it will improve to a B+ given a bit of time for the prospects to mature.

I am somewhat forced to question the author’s knowledge of the Bruins as it lists Thornton as our likely fifth line right winger (reserve) and has Schaefer penned in as our fourth line right winger (Schaefer is a LW and won’t be on our fourth line). It also has Axe on our second line and Bochenski, Krejci and Kessel on our third line (what an intimidating checking line)!

Chara is listed at number 39 in their list of top 50 players in the NHL. Marc Savard is only listed in the “How Could We Forget These Guys?” section along with Sundin and Modano. If Savard isn’t better than those guys at this point in their respective careers then I’ll eat my Bruins cap. Phil Kessel is listed in the list of the NHL’s top young guns. It will interest you to know that they apparently do not believe Patrice Bergeron is as good as Zach Parise, Martin Havlat, Mathieu Schneider or Sergei Gonchar.

The magazine has a rather in-depth article about Steve Montador and Ference’s venture into Africa.



The Score Sports Forecaster:


Player Projections:
Savard, 97 pts, 27 goals (+1 pt from last year)
Bergeron, 86 pts, 26 goals (+16 pts from last year)
Murray, 64 pts, 38 goals (+19 pts from last year)
Kessel, 57 pts, 22 goals (+28 pts from last year)
Bochenski, 47 pts, 23 goals (+29 pts from last year)
Sturm, 47 pts, 18 goals (+3 pts from last year)
Kobasew, 41 pts, 19 goals (+22 pts from last year)
Axelsson, 28 pts, 11 goals (+1 pt from last year)

Murray, Axelsson and Kobasew are all listed as injury risks.

How they think Sturm will go from near 30 goals each of the past two seasons to 18 goals the next season, I’m not sure, and no explanation is given.

The Bruins are projected to land fourth in the division and 12th in the conference. The team listed behind them is Montreal.

The magazine considers Savard one (6th) of the top ten blue chip centre picks in the NHL. It also gives honourable mention to Patrice Bergeron. It also picks Phil Kessel as one of the best bets at centre amongst youngsters. It lists Bochenski as one of its sleeper picks at wing. It also has a blurb about how you never see any players like Cam Neely anymore (I am seriously beginning to like this magazine). Glen Murray is listed as being on the rebound. Poor guy. Breaking up can be tough.

Dennis Wideman is listed as one of the sleepers on defence. Apparently Chara did not warrant a listing in any of their categories about defensemen. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad. Manny Fernandez is listed in the buyer beware section for goalies.


NHL 2008 Official Yearbook:

The magazine points out that Glen Murray is only 54 games away from playing in 1000 NHL contests. The magazine lists Savard as the 20th biggest star in the league. Again, he was beat out by Havlat. Why? You’ve got me. Patrice is listed at number 43 and has been beaten out by several questionable people (Pavol Demitra?!!?!).

I noticed this magazine reports we were the seventh worst team in face-offs last year. We used to be so good in that department! Quick! Sign Travis Green back up!

I’m really hoping that Julien can do something about the 18 short handed goals we gave up last year. Correcting that problem would make me feel a lot better.

I mainly bought this magazine as a stats reference to last year’s season. It contains little in the way of prognostications.



Gerz’s Brain:


Player Projections:

Marc Savard: 105 pts, 27 goals (+9 pts from last year)
Marc is in the best shape of his life and he’s coming in as a lean, mean, puck-dishing machine. If Glen Murray can stay healthy for long enough, he will help Savard wrack up the points in no time. That’s not even considering that he scored 96 points last year under Dave Lewis’ infamous “system”. Imagine what he can do when he’s in better shape and allowed to really play!

Patrice Bergeron: 87 pts, 33 goals (+17 pts from last year)
Patrice will be coming into next season healthy and ready to redeem his self. I think if Bochenski ends up on Patrice’s wing then that gives him a finisher that he didn’t have for most of last year. Marc Savard will also again be dishing him the puck on the power play and both those guys are in solid shape. If Sturm decides to show up at all then this number could go up slightly.

Glen Murray: 55 pts, 36 goals (+10 pts from last year)
I think Muzz will benefit from Savard’s new found fitness and Julien’s unleashing the team’s offence. I expect him to score his goals mostly early on and then possibly end up with groin problems again. The increased points will largely be because I believe Savard and Schaefer, who I think will be his line mates, will score more goals than Axe and an out of shape Savard scored last year (thus giving Murray more assists).

Kessel: 50 pts, 20 goals (+21 pts from last year)
I think Kessel will have a solid year but may not be quite ready for a massive offensive breakout yet.

Bochenski: 48 pts, 28 goals (+24 from last year)
Bochenski is a pure goal scorer. If he is paired with Bergy then I think 25 to 30 goals can easily be expected. Think of a young Glen Murray. Also, Bochenski will be playing for a big raise and respect. Let me tell you, I’ve seen this guy play an awful lot by now and I don’t think Chiarelli messed up when he traded Versteeg for Bochenski.

Chara: 38 pts, 10 goals (-5 pts from last year)
I expect Chara to play a more physical and defensive role this year. I would like to see him take less PP time also. Chara has become a very good offensive d-man but let’s not forget what he made his reputation off of. Let’s leave the offensive work to the likes of Lashoff and Wideman.

Schaefer: 50 pts, 20 goals (+4 pts from last year)
I think Schaefer will end up with Savard and Muzz on the first line and that will actually increase his points from when he was with the Sens. Granted the Sens are a better offensive team but Savard is a shiftier pivot than Fisher is and Schaefer should get even more minutes on our first line. I also think he may be hungry to show up the Sens since he stayed in the same division.

Sturm: 45 pts, 30 goals (+1 pt from last year)
I don’t think Sturm will become a very different player next year. I think he will tally a couple more goals because of increased performance of teammates and because of Dave Lewis’ departure.

Kobasew: 30 pts, 14 goals (+11 pts from last year)
Kobasew is a bit of a mystery. Hopefully he will be healthier than he was last year. If he is and he gets Kessel as his pivot then I think he is good for 30 points. You never know though, he could become his old self from two seasons ago and score around 20 goals. I still don’t think his total points will go up much more than this though.

Axelsson: 28 pts, 12 goals (+1 pt from last year)
If P.J. gets Kessel as his centreman then he is capable of more than this, especially if P.J. remains healthy. All things considered, I would prefer it if Axelsson concentrated on going back to his shut-down role that Mike Sullivan used him so effectively in.

Wideman: 34 pts, 14 goals (+9 pts from last year)
I think Dennis should be quarter-backing our power play. That is, after all, why we picked him up. He should be given every chance to succeed and his minor league numbers are proof enough that he has all the potential in the world.

As for the goalies, I predict that Tim Thomas will end up taking have the starts and that he will have slightly better numbers than Manny next year. Timmy is used to Beantown and the shelling our goalies receive. Also, Tim does not have a trick knee.

I’m going to project that the Bruins will wrestle the seventh or eighth playoff spot into their possession by the end of the season. You’ll notice that none of the magazines project that the Bruins will score less or play worse as a team than last year. In fact, it’s just the opposite. They all seem to agree that our players will score a lot more. How can this not make us go up in the rankings?

I think Dave Lewis’ impact on this team, while infamous, is still under-stated. He was a nightmare. You cannot tell me the players never wanted to challenge the other teams and never wanted to go for the hit or take a chance to try to win the game. I think we will see lots of messes cleared up with Julien’s presence and I think we will see a much more exciting and intense team as well as great team chemistry since we had such a low turnover rate.

In some games last year, there were stretches where the Bruins showed true brilliance. I think this is much more indicative of what our forwards are capable of as compared to their slumping ways from last year (which, as I said, I believe were mostly caused by a lousy system).

I also think our prospects will be given more time to shine under Julien and so instead of seeing a lot of Mowers or Ward, we may actually see someone like Krejci, Lucic or Lashoff. I can’t wait!

So, whose predictions are the closest to the truth? What would you predict?


P.S. Fluto Shinzawa, of the Boston Globe, has agreed to be interviewed for this blog. I am thankful for the opportunity. Please post any questions you would like me to ask Fluto.

-Gerz

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