|
Sabres scouts will need to be sharp to land an NHL-caliber goalie prospect |
|
|
|
|
|
The Buffalo Sabres have the No. 1 overall pick in this year's NHL Entry Draft and they have No. 32, which starts the second round. It's with almost 100% certainty that they'll select defenseman Rasmus Dahlin with the top pick and you could also say with nearly a 100% certainty that they'll take a skater with their second pick.
Barring any changes Buffalo will be waiting until pick No. 94 at the top of the fourth round to make their next selection. The Sabres traded away their 2018 third round pick (No. 63) to the Minnesota Wild in a trade that also sent Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis to the Wild for Marco Scandella and Jason Pominville. Buffalo also received Minnesota's fourth-rounder this year (No. 117) as a part of the deal.
Being at No. 32 while not having a third-rounder means that Buffalo does not have a pick in a prime area to take one of the better goalies in the draft.
Where teams have drafted goaltenders has changed fairly recently. Rick DiPietro was the No. 1 pick in the 2000 NHL Draft and the only other goalie picked first-overall since was Marc-Andre Fleury (2002.) Kari Lehtonen was taken second-overall in 2001 and Carey Price fifth-overall in 2005. There were a total of four goalies taken in the first round in 2006 and after that the most selected in the first round was two which happened three times (2008, 2010, 2012.)
Jack Campbell was selected 11th overall in 2010 and represents the highest slot amongst goalies taken since 2006 when Jonathan Bernier was also selected at No. 11. From 2007-17 there have been only eight goalies taken in the first round and in the last five years it's happened only twice.
With the game changing more towards speed and offense, teams are focusing on the skaters much more in the first round while waiting until the second or third rounds to snag a goalie prospect. Of 79 goalies taken in the first three rounds since 2007, 71 have been taken in the second and third rounds with the highest number of second and third-rounders being nine in 2012. The next highest number was eight in 2016 and on five other occasions, seven goalies were taken in those rounds.
The Sabres philosophy on where to draft goalies has also changed. The success of Ryan Miller, who was drafted fifth-overall (138th) in 1999 gave GM Darcy Regier a reason to wait until the latter rounds to pick a goalie. Only Jonas Enroth (2006, 46th) was selected with a pick higher than the fourth round. Enroth has played in 152 NHL games and while Regier drafted six other goalies before he was fired in 2013 only Linus Ullmark (2012, 163rd) has hit double digits in NHL games played. All of Regier's other goalie selections were low-round picks with the highest being Ghyslain Rousseau in the fourth round (2000, 111th.)
Of note, the Sabres also drafted Cal Petersen in the fifth round (129th) of the 2013 draft but he finished college, opted to become a free agent and signed with the LA Kings.
Tim Murray actually broke the trend of selecting goalies late in the draft for Buffalo when he picked Jonas Johansson in the third round (61st) of the 2014 draft. He would not select another goalie in the following two drafts and was fired in 2017.
After taking over the reigns as GM last season, Jason Botterill selected Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (whom the team recently signed to his entry-level deal) with the 54th pick. He was the second goalie off the board in 2017 and was one of seven total selected in the second and third rounds.
Right now, the Sabres prospect pool in net consists of Ullmark, who will be with the Sabres in a not yet fully defined role, Johansson who will be in Rochester in a not yet fully defined role and Luukkonen, who's expected to spend at least one year (probably two) in his native Finland playing at the pro-level there. There's nobody from the system to man the net in Cincinnati this year and no one between the 22 yr. old Johansson and the 19 yr. old Luukkonen.
The Sabres will once again be looking for outside help in net and for the foreseeable future will need to ride with a very thin prospect pool. Having them without a pick in a prime area at the draft to land a goalie prospect will probably extend that thin pool out another year.
Regardless of that fact, neither Buffalo nor any other team, has their goalie positions at all three levels filled with homegrown picks so Botterill will once again be in the market for goalie help. He'll need an AHL goalie and will also need to find two for the ECHL. There's also a possibility that he'll be looking to fill an open spot in Buffalo should the team decide to move on from Robin Lehner.
If the Sabres do draft a goaltender in the lower rounds they'll need to be pretty sharp. The hope is that their selection will, at the very least, be filling the pipeline at the minor league level.
On average, seven goalies have been taken prior to round-four over the last 11 years. Making things even more difficult for the Sabres this year is the general consensus that his is a less than stellar group of goalie prospects with Kris Baker of the Athletic Buffalo calling this crop of goalies "average at best" in his draft preview. Baker has been following the draft and Sabres prospects for over a decade through his site, sabresprospects.com, and was tapped by the Athletic to do the same for them.
As we move down his draft preview, Baker might be reaching a bit when he lists Czech goaltending prospect Jakub Skarek as a possibility for Buffalo at pick 94 this year. Skarek, who's ranked highly at a number of sites, has the size at 6'3" 192 lbs. that fits the way the NHL is trending and, according to Baker, "checks a lot of boxes for a solid goaltending prospect."
Skarek "[has the] ability to cover a lot of net when dropping to make a butterfly save," continued Baker, "[has] high goalie IQ that allows him to read and anticipate, and extremely sharp reflexes."
After that Baker sees Djurgarden IF goalie Olof Lindbom as a possibility for Buffalo with their second fourth-rounder at No. 117. Lindbom also has size (6'2" 185 lbs.) and has a strong lower body that allows him to use "powerful pushes with both legs that get him post-to-post with ease," according to Baker.
It should also be noted that the goalie rankings are pretty much all over the place this year outside of a couple of names leading the pack. QMJHL products Oliver Rodrigue and Kevin Mandolese are ranked as the top two goalies by International Scouting Services while NHL's Central Scouting has both of them atop their rankings of North American Goalies. (CSS has Skarek ranked No. 2 amongst European goalies.) Outside of that, the annual crapshoot within crapshoot when it comes to drafting goalies at any draft seems to be even wackier than normal.
Trying to make sense of it all is Ryan Jankowski, who was hired by Botterill last July to head the amateur scouting department. He'll have his work cut out for him past pick-32 when the Sabres will be watching as goalies are taken off the board in that sweet spot of the second and third rounds (barring a trade.) If the average holds true, the top seven goalie prospects from "an average at best" pool of prospects will be gone leaving them slim pickings.
However, on the flipside, of all the positions in the crapshoot that is the NHL Draft, goaltender is the toughest one to try and figure out. First and foremost goalies are a rare breed as they spend nearly all of their time alone in net with their thoughts and second, they have the longest incubation period. A lot can happen between a goalie being drafted in their late teens and being ready for regular pro duty in their early 20's. There are many busts in the upper rounds while latter round picks end up being NHL goaltenders.
For this year, the certainty with which the Sabres will draft Dahlin at the top of the draft is the complete opposite their position for drafting a goalie, especially when they'll need to do that in the latter rounds. Jankowski and company will need to be pretty sharp to land an NHL-caliber goalie prospect this year.
Join the Discussion:
»