I’m guessing that most readers here have read enough previews and predictions to get them prepared for this season. I was going to write another but instead I’ve decided to write a preview of the NHL’s future. So with that said, I present to you...
NHL 2027
Within the next twenty years, there will be NHL teams playing in Europe. It just makes too much sense. Afterall, about 30% of the league’s players come from Europe. Sure there are hurdles that need to be overcome but it’s clear that there is a passion for and a market for hockey overseas.
This is not a short-term undertaking though.
Twenty years is a long time.
Twenty years ago, Wayne Gretzky was still an Oiler and Mario Lemieux hadn’t yet played in a playoff game. Of course the year was 1987 and those two would team up in what would become one of the most memorable tournaments of all-time.
There were twenty-one teams in the league and only fourteen in the U.S.
Mandatory helmets were still being grandfathered in and the first round of the playoffs was expanded to seven games.
TSN was just starting up, the Fan590 was five years away from hitting the airwaves and there was no Internet - no chatrooms, message boards, hockey sites, internet videos/radio, no NHL Center Ice - many games weren’t even televised. There were no cell phones, no blackberries, no iPods, no iPhones, no laptops, no CDs/DVDs or PVRs.
A LOT changes in twenty years.
Most people never imagined teams in Anaheim, Atlanta, Carolina, Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Nashville, Ottawa, Phoenix, San Jose or Tampa Bay.
Twenty-years ago you never could have imagined how high revenues, salaries, expansion fees, ticket prices, and franchise values would go.
But here we are in 2007.
Of course twenty-years before 1987, there were just six teams in the National Hockey League, the league was about to double in size - with expansion fees set at $2 million - and the Leafs were defending Stanley Cup Champions.
Sounds crazy, I know.
The world as we know it now will surely be drastically different in the year 2027. Maybe we’ll all be flying about on space ships and there will be hockey teams on Pluto and on the Moon. Maybe the Leafs will have won a Cup or two.
A better bet is that there will be a division of teams playing overseas and the league will be better for it.
I don’t pretend to have all the answers right now because it would certainly take a great amount of time and resources to put together a long-term business plan on what the league will look like 5, 10 and 20 years from now, but I do have some ideas and discussion points.
I envision a 36 team league with 9 teams in Europe. Of course that means at least 3 teams that are currently in existence will need to be relocated to Europe, possibly five if the league goes ahead with expansion by 2010 as many expect. I also have two teams relocating to Canada as the market is under-represented and eight teams sounds right to me. I actually have the three possible divisions broken down but I’m not going to list them here because I don’t want this to turn into a debate on which cities could, would or should lose their franchises. Time will tell which markets are truly viable long-term.
What I will say is that in my plan we have two conferences (Wales and Campbell) and four Divisions (West, Central, East and Europe). Each division will have 9 teams.
Determining which European cities would get teams is an extremely complex question and one that would need a great deal of research on demographics, population trends, competition, economics, etc. Of course it would also depend very much on potential owners and facilities - or maybe AEG will just own everything/everyone by then.
Here are eighteen cities (in alphabetical order) who could be in the running:
Berlin, Bern, Bratislava, Cologne, Copenhagen, Frankfort, Hamburg, Helsinki, London, Milan, Moscow, Munich, Paris, Prague, Riga, St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Zurich
Again I have my opinions on which nine could work best but I’ll leave that for another discussion. Like I said the research would really tell the story here anyways.
Here’s how a proposed schedule would breakdown:
Divisional Games (3 H, 3 A): 8 x 6 = 48
Conference Games (1 H, 1 A): 9 x 2 = 18
Inter-Conference Games (18 x 1): 18 x 1 = 18
Total Games = 84
Each team would meet at least once a year. I’d actually prefer a 76 game schedule with 5 games against each Divisional opponent to account for the additional travel, instead of stretching out the schedule too much. Either way would work.
So what does that mean for travel?
Each European team would play 18 games in North America (3 trips a year)
Each team in the East will play 9 games in Europe (2 trips a year)
Each team in the West/Central will play 4 or 5 games in Europe (1 trip a year)
Seems reasonable, I think. Wouldn’t it be great for fans to be able to participate in organized tours, following their teams around Europe for 10 days or so?
In order to shuttle teams back and forth across the Atlantic, the league could look into a private jet that is shared by all teams. If players are comfortable and able to sleep well over the course of the flight it will certainly ease some of those travel pains.
How about the playoffs?
The top four teams in each division would make the playoffs. Match-ups would be played within the division until the final four. This would also help to build and strengthen rivalries, which are truly cultivated in the post-season.
Once the final four is set, the travel is unavoidable but switching to a 2-3-2 system will certainly help (either throughout the playoffs or for the final two rounds). The schedule would need to be stretched out for the final two rounds but it wouldn’t be as bad as some would think. After all, Detroit isn’t exactly so close to Anaheim and you wouldn’t have a European team in the finals every year (although you would be assured one in the final four).
Stay tuned for Part II tomorrow or Wednesday AM, when I’ll touch on ownership and facilities, the draft and talent pool as well as where the Euro League teams come into play and how this whole thing could be implemented in two phases. If there are other topics you’d like to see covered, just let me know in the comments or by e-mail..
Danny -
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