We are continuing with Part III in a Five-Part Series: The first one looked at
the common misconception that goaltending is the primary reason for the Canes struggles this season. The second article evaluated what I believed to be
the most concerning issues surrounding the Canes currently.
Today, we are going to be looking at how the expansion draft might affect the Canes this summer. Furthermore, I wanted to take a look at the current roster and discuss who is expendable at this point into the season and heading into the trade deadline. The past few days, I have been playing around with the
expansion draft simulator —if you haven’t had a chance to play around with it, I encourage you to check it out.
As I have been looking at different teams, I strongly believe that the Canes are in the best position of almost any NHL franchise heading into the expansion draft. There are two reasons that they are in a great position. The first is that only one player on the roster “must be protected,” Jordan Staal has a “No-Movement Clause (NMC).”
The first is an obvious advantage as some teams have numerous NMC’s, such as Chicago who has four forwards, three defensemen and a goaltender. This really allows the Canes flexibility in deciding who they would like to cover, as well as moving any pieces they deem necessary pre-draft or at the trade deadline. Given the Canes amount of draft picks this off-season, as well as young players, they are in a position to make a big move if the right offer came along.
The second advantage for the Canes is the amount of players automatically exempt that currently play an important role on the roster—Pesce, Slavin, Hanifin, Ryan and Aho are the five most notable names. This is huge because the Canes’ blue-line is very secure heading into next season. The fact that Pesce (22), Slavin (22) and Hanifin (19) are exempt allows the Canes to focus on using the “7F-3D-1G” protection method rather than the “8F/D and 1G.”
If you are familiar with the Canes, then you know that Pesce, Slavin and Hanifin all play a significant role in protecting the blue-line. Faulk will obviously be one of the three defensemen that is covered which will essentially have the Canes “Top 4” defenders protected, with two more allowed for protection. Most teams that are looking to cover their “Top 4” will be required to go with the “8F/D, 1G” option.
Based on using the “7-3-1,” the Canes should easily have their “Top 9” forwards protected, as well as potentially their entire NHL blue-line for next season. Whether the Canes look at a trade or the free agency market, they will have the cap space and security to make a “smart” move, rather than an impulsive purchase.
Unlike most NHL teams, the Canes actually are in a predicament on meeting the conditions required for the defensemen that must be left available to Vegas. Per the rules, they must leave one defensemen available who is signed through 2017-18 and either has played 40 games in 2016-17 or 70+ games through 2015-16 and 2016-17.
There are a total of eight Canes defensemen that are eligible for the expansion draft. If you look at them, only two are signed through 2017-18 (Faulk and Murphy) and only three meet the game requirement (Faulk, Hainsey and Dahlbeck). Granted, Tennyson will most likely hit the game-requirement (pending he doesn’t get injured), however, he would need to be re-signed before the expansion draft for the Canes to meet the requirements.
Based on this, the only player who currently meets both of the requirements is Justin Faulk. Let’s just be blunt, the Canes will not be leaving him available for Vegas. So, this begs the question of who do the Canes re-sign and who will they choose to protect with Faulk? At this point, I don’t think anyone could predict this without literally spinning a wheel and guessing.
The forward picture is a little more clear IMO. As stated, Staal will be required to be covered by the Canes—however, regardless of the NMC, I don’t think the Canes would leave him available anyways. Skinner, Rask, Lindholm, Teravainen and McGinn are pretty much guaranteed to be protected. Given that Aho and Ryan are automatically exempt, the Canes should have their “Top 9” covered easily.
Based on the list above, there is one forward slot remaining to be protected. However, based on the fact that two forwards must be left available who meet the requirements for games and contract, only Stempniak and Nordstrom remain that fit that bill. I don’t think the loss of either of them would be too catastrophic and they both are easily replaceable with younger guys, trade or a free agency acquisition.
Personally, I imagine GM Francis envisioned leaving Stempniak available and that is precisely why the Canes signed him to a two-year contract. As for the potential loss of Nordstrom, he has 37 points (14g, 23a) in 158 games and is in his fourth season. He has proven to be “bottom 6” NHL level forward with potential for the 2nd line, however, he really is expendable to the Canes.
If the Canes management disagrees with that stance and wanted to cover him with the remaining forward slot, then they would have to re-sign someone or bring in someone. I don’t believe it is a good strategy for the Canes to trade for an asset they plan to lose in the off-season, so the best option would be to re-sign someone.
If they were to pursuit this option, McClement, Stalberg and Nestrasil would be their options. Di Guiseppe could also fall into this category if he plays 11 more games this season. The risk of giving any of those four an extension would be that Vegas doesn’t select them and then they are on the Canes team next season.
I would be surprised if management would re-sign McClement or Nestrasil until at least free agency. Given the youth that could be ready next season and the amount of returning forwards, I think the Canes will want to be patient in deciding if/when they re-sign someone. That being said, I would place my bet on either Di Giuseppe or Stalberg getting re-signed if the Canes were to want to protect Nordstrom.
If you look further at the automatically exempt list, you will notice that there are many players who could potentially be NHL ready next season too. The amount of talented players in the Canes system that are exempt is astounding actually: Gathier, Saarela, Roy, Zykov, Fleury, McKeown and Chelios are probably the most “promising” developing prospects. Overall, the group of exempt players combined with those most likely to be protected is very encouraging for the Canes in terms of what the roster may look like next season.
The final component is determining the goaltending situation. Based on Ward’s play, as well as his history with the Canes, I personally would be shocked if he isn’t protected. Eddie Lack is younger, however, he would have to show something significantly impressive or see Ward have a catastrophic injury or major decline in play. Regardless, the one place that the Canes need to make more stable is between the pipes.
Now that we have looked at the Canes expansion situation, the question is who is expendable? I would believe that the most expendable players for the Canes to move would be Murphy, Hainsey, Stalberg, Nestrasil, McClement and Di Giuseppe. I doubt Stempniak or Nordstrom would fall onto the list, unless they were receiving a forward who met the requirements for the expansion draft.
Regardless of what GM Francis decides to do, the Canes are primed to be a dangerous team next season. Canes fans should be excited about the future, even if this season doesn’t see them break their playoff drought.
I think the most interesting question is who will the Canes protect as their seventh forward? Personally, I would rather them trade some of their expendable pieces for a forward who is similar to Staal—this meaning, excels at face-offs, puck possession and can provide a strong physical/defensive presence. Part IV will discuss this more in depth. Thanks for reading!
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»