One of the secondary decisions facing the Flyers this offseason is whether to pursue a veteran backup goaltender or retain Sergei Bobrovsky for another season. Personally, I'm fine with either course of action.
There is a shrinking faction of people who believe that Bobrovsky has the potential to be a star goaltender in the NHL. Goaltenders often develop later than position players and Bobrovsky is still just 23 years old (he'll turn 24 during training camp).
However, the truth of the matter there are about a dozen goalies of about the same age and demonstrated pro ability as Bobrovsky in either the NHL as backups or still playing in the AHL. The gamut spans from Jonathan Bernier, Jhonas Enroth, Michal Neuvirth, Anders Lindbäck and Richard Bachman in the NHL to Jacob Markström, Eddie Läck, Jeremy Smith, Dustin Tokarski and Tyson Sexsmith in the AHL.
Although I would put Bobrovsky somewhere in the middle of the pack of the young goalies who have already played in the NHL, I don't think his maximum potential is more than a shade higher than average. He doesn't have a lot of trade value right now, especially at a time when goalies as a whole are not a hot trading commodity.
The 2011-12 campaign was a tale of two different seasons for Sergei Bobrovsky. The first half was encouraging. He was on top of his angles more consistently. His puckhandling improved. He didn't allow singular mistakes to snowball. As a matter of fact, Bobrovsky outplayed Ilya Bryzgalov during the preseason and from early December until Bob was named starter in the Winter Classic.
Thereafter, Bobrovsky struggled in increasingly limited action. But that is not unusual at all for a young goalie. I think it's a little too early to declare that Bobrovsky can't make the adjustment to being an NHL backup. In fact, I think it's too early to entirely close the book on his ability to become an NHL starter (although most likely not in Philadelphia). I could see him becoming a serviceable split-time starter in a lower-pressure market.
Right now,however Bobrovsky appears to be on a course to have an NHL career similar to that of ex-Flyer Antero Niittymäki: a tweener who isn't quite a bonafide number one goalie but is a bit better than the average backup. He can play very good hockey at the top level for several games at a time but -- thus far at least -- has had difficulty taking the reigns as the starter for an extended period.
Bobrovsky has two outstanding assets. He moves very well laterally, and his coaches gush over his work ethic. In certain areas, the improvement is obvious. For instance, he has gone from a puck handling liability to a goalie who is adequate at stopping the puck in the trapezoid and leaving it for a defenseman.
On the whole, other NHL teams really didn't have to adjust their book on Bobrovsky too much this season. He still struggles with rebound control and some of his angles and can use continued improvement in his puck tracking. But that goes with the turf of developing most young goalies. It is usually a process that takes several years to yield consistently sustained results.
It would not be an earth-shattering loss for the Flyers organization if they pursued a slightly cheaper veteran backup rather than bringing Bobrovsky back for a third season. But it also would not hurt the Flyers to exercise a little patience here and give Bobrovsky another season to see if he can continue to grow into his role.
Bobrovsky has one season remaining on the entry-level deal he signed in the summer of 2010. With bonuses, he is slated to make $1.75 million on the salary cap next season. That is a bit expensive for a backup goalie, especially in light of the team's commitment to Ilya Bryzgalov.
However, $850,000 of Bobrovsky's cap hit comes in the form of performance bonuses. If there is a bonus cushion in the next CBA, Bobrovsky's in-season cap hit becomes more moderate. The team will just have maintain enough end of season cap space to be able to pay out any bonuses he is entitled to collect. Otherwise, they would incur cap penalties for the following season.
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