In the National Hockey League, it is virtually automatic for most teams to win when they lead after two periods. Including overtime and shootout losses resulting from blown third period leads, the League-wide average winning percentage is .862 over the last five years.
Meanwhile, the top teams in the NHL can sometimes go an entire regular season without losing a game they've led at the second intermission. For instance, in 2011-12, the Boston Bruins were a perfect 32-0-0 when leading after two periods. The New York Rangers finally lost a game in regulation this season after taking a lead into the third period. Dating back to the 2010-11 season, however, the Blueshirts sport a regular season record of 86-1-4 and a .945 winning percentage when leading after the second frame.
The Philadelphia Flyers have already managed to lose five games
this season alone when leading after the second period; they are 11-2-3 in such games. That winning percentage ranks 26th -- meaning fourth worst -- in the NHL. In addition to those five losses, the Flyers lost an overtime game against Carolina on Nov. 5 which was a scoreless tie after two periods but in which the Flyers took a 1-0 lead into the final minute of regulation.
Here are the games the Flyers have ultimately lost after leading in the third period:
* Oct. 15 vs. Vancouver: The Flyers held a 2-1 lead after two periods and ended up losing 3-2 in regulation. The tying goal was yielded 7:31 into the third period and the winning goal at 17:35.
* Oct. 29 vs. Anaheim: The Flyers dominated the Ducks in the first period, roaring out to a 2-0 at the first intermission. Anaheim controlled the final two periods but Philly still clung to a 2-1 lead after the second period. In the final stanza, Kyle Palmieri scored the tying goal at 1:01 and the winning goal for the Ducks at 15:51.
* Nov 15 @ Winnipeg: Philly held a 2-1 lead after the first and second periods. Dustin Byfuglien tied the match at 14:23 of the third period with his second power play goal of the game. The Jets went on to win via shooout.
* Dec 9 @ Ottawa: The Flyers led 3-2 after two periods. Ottawa scored two goals -- at the 2:21 and 8:21 marks -- to forge ahead of Philadelphia in the third period. Kimmo Timonen scored at 10:58 to re-tie the game and salvage a point. The Senators won via shootout.
* Dec. 15 @ Washington: In one of the worst collapses I have seen in 40-plus years of watching the Flyers, the Flyers blew a 4-1 lead held midway through the third period and went on lose 5-4 via shootout. Philly had led 2-1 at the second intermission before opening up a three-goal lead on closely spaced goals by Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek. The Caps cut the deficit to 4-2 at 11:20, got the game to 4-3 at 16:20 and then Alex Ovechkin tied it with 48 seconds left in regulation.
I will have more to say about yesterday's loss a little later. For now, suffice it to say that a blown three-goal lead in less than half of the third period should never happen. I don't care if it's midget hockey, junior, minor pro or the NHL.
The Flyers' season winning percentage when leading after two could be even worse than it is.
If you recall, when the Flyers beat Pittsburgh, 2-1, on Nov. 13, Philly was on its heels for much of the third period. The Pens had no fewer than four wide-open scoring chances where their shooters simply missed the net. Ordinarily against Pittsburgh, those pucks would have been buried in the net. Against Montreal the other night, the Flyers took a 2-0 lead into the final minute before yielding a goal. The Habs also had a disallowed goal with 6:35 remaining in regulation.
Unfortunately, the harsh truth about these Flyers is that they are a mediocre team doing what mediocre teams do: hovering around the .500 mark.
Philly can hang with teams with better records for stretches of a game. For instance, think back to the first period in Chicago or the way the Flyers held the Capitals without a shot for the first 15-plus minutes of the game that turned into a 7-0 humiliation and culminated in Ray Emery's beatdown of Braden Holtby. Think of the way the Flyers took it to Anaheim in the opening stanza of the Oct. 29 game.
What the Flyers can't do -- and it is emblematic of what the so-so teams in the league do -- is consistently sustain that level. The blown third period leads are representative of a bigger problem within this club.
These Flyers don't handle adversity very well.
When trailing first in a game, which the Flyers have done in 17 of their 34 games to date, the team has the second-worst winning percentage in the league this season (2-10-2, .143 winning percentage). When trailing after two periods -- with the shining exception being the third-period goal barrage in Detroit -- the Flyers have managed only one successful comeback in 12 tries. Their .083 winning percentage ranks 25th. There are, however, four teams (Buffalo, Calgary, Montreal and Nashville) who have yet to win a game they've trailed after two periods this season.
I also lump the blown third period leads in the same general category as the Flyers' tendency -- especially of late -- to let one or two mistakes snowball into a full-fledged catastrophe. One needs only to look at the four losses the team suffered on its recent six-game road trip:
* In Minnesota, Emery almost singlehandedly got the game to the third period in a scoreless deadlock. The Flyers came out storming early in the third but then lost a battle in their own end that ended up in their net. Rather than quickly regaining their equilibrium -- which is what the better teams do when they give up a goal -- the Flyers quickly yielded another goal. Now the Flyers found themselves staring at a 2-0 deficit. They applied a lot of pressure late in the game but it was too little and too late by then. The Wild won, 2-0.
* In Dallas, the Flyers killed off nine minutes worth of penalties in the first period and managed to take a 1-0 lead before the first intermission. Everything was set up for the Flyers to go on and win the game, but then they could not stop the bleeding when Dallas' top line trio of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Valeri Nichushkin got rolling in the second period. The line exploded for four goals in the second period, including three within a span of 63 seconds.
* In Ottawa, the Flyers were unable to hold leads of 1-0 and the aforementioned 3-2 lead after two periods. They ended up having to scramble to get at least one point.
* In Chicago, the Flyers played a very strong first period, grabbing a 1-0 lead and outshooting the defending Stanley Cup champions and current NHL leaders by a 10-6 margin. The Blackhawks tied the game on the power play in the opening minute of the second period and then took the lead at 1:22. Then Chicago did what a real top team does what it smells blood -- it unleashed a deadly assault on Philly. The Flyers soon gave up a shorthanded goal and utterly fell apart at the seams. The relentless Hawks kept their foot on the gas and built up a 7-2 lead before the carnage was over.
Quite frankly, to be on the receiving end of that many crooked-number periods in a short period of time exposes the same sorts of flaw that has contributed their struggles in closing teams out when leading after two periods. Let's look at yesterday's collapse, and what I think are the three root causes:
1. Lack of attention to detail. What happened on the Dmitry Orlov goal that cut the Washington deficit from two goals to one? Well, the Flyers took an icing (and, questionably, Craig Berube elected not to use his team's timeout when it looked in need of one). Then they lost the ensuing faceoff cleanly. Then a Flyers defenseman (Nicklas Grossmann in this case) did not move in time to give his goalie a look at the shot; he screened Steve Mason. To compound the problem, the point shot looked to tick off Grossmann and re-direct.
What happened on the Ovechkin goal that tied the game? Mason fumbled the puck around behind the net. The Flyers got too stationary. With the Washington goaltender pulled for an extra attacker, Ovechkin skated in unimpeded, collected the puck and shot it home.
In hockey, small things add up to big ones. Think about things that happen to the Flyers all too often when things unravel on them after a good start and the adversity snowballs.
I've mentioned a few of them already. There are others.
The team has a disturbing knack for losing board battles or turning pucks over in dangerous areas at the worst possible times. They've gotten caught on bad line changes a few times, especially against top teams. Defensemen go over to their partner's side and leave the slot on their own side uncovered or getting mesmerized by a player with the puck behind the net. Forwards become spectators and get too stationary. The shifts immediately following an opposition goal are bad ones. The Flyers take too many bad penalties, especially in stressful situations when they are starting to get desperate or frustrated.
Every single one of these breakdowns are due to lacking poise and neglecting the little details of the game that -- even more than a team's pure talent level -- make the difference between a playoff-worthy club and a pretender that plays around the .500 level.
2. Lack of intelligent killer instinct: The last time the Flyers played the Capitals, Philly got their doors blown off. With a 4-1 lead in the third period, the Flyers had every opportunity to really put the screws to their opponent. Instead, they took a penalty not all that long after opening up the three goal lead and, although they survived it, pretty much got back on their heels the rest of the game.
Rather than going for the jugular, the Flyers let their wounded opponent get back up. The Caps proceeded to basically pinprick the Flyers to death... one goal, two goals, tying goal... as Philly got too worried about how much time was left on the clock rather than the business of keeping control of the game.
3. Lack of take-charge leadership: When it comes to crunch time of a game, that's when a club's best players really need to shine.
The shutdown defenders need to make that zone clear that gets past the high man in the zone for the opposition without going for an icing. The goalie needs to swallow up all rebounds and the guys in front of him need to box everyone out just in case. The top line has to generate forechecking pressure that keeps play in the offensive end.
The trailing team needs to activate their D and take more chances in general when chasing the game in the third period. Rather than wilting under the pressure, the good teams and take-charge players recognize opportunities to dart into the lanes, collect turnovers and go off on odd-man rushes that add to the lead.
I'm not talking about someone stepping up with this or that isolated game on the line. I am referring to having a player or two who truly relishes and thrives in these situations when they present. Who, on this Flyers team, have been their crunch-time take-charge players on a regular basis this season? How about last season? The answer, sadly, is no one.
The 2013-14 Philadelphia Flyers aren't an awful team. They aren't a particularly good one, either. They are awash in mediocrity. Fortunately for the Flyers, so is every other team in the Metropolitan Division beyond Pittsburgh.
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