I am working on a blog about "How we can fix the trade deadline" that I will be posting next, but first, I got into a debate with Russ Cohen at the end of yesterday's podcast regarding "Who will make the playoffs in the East and we started to analyze each team's remaining schedule before we ran out of time...Last night I was so relieved to be done with rumors for a bit and I hit the numbers...and I was surprised to see how close this was...or.... "How right I was, and how wrong Russ was."
Here is the Race...
As I see it as the race for the final spot comes down to 5 teams fighting for 4 spots, separated currently by 6 points. In my opinion Florida and Tampa, even though only slightly ahead of Detroit are playoff teams and in the Metro the top two spots with the Rangers and of course Washington is set. So this is a battle for third in each division and a battle for the two Wildcard spots.
Detroit has 75 points with 19 games left
Boston has 74 points with 19 games left
NY Islanders have 73 points with 22 games left
Pittsburgh has 72 points with 21 games left
Philly has 69 points with 20 games left
So let's look at 'who has to play who' the rest of the way:
Pure Strength of Schedule The Average Amount of Points a Team Has to Compete Against
1. Boston 73.8
2. Pittsburgh 72.9
3. NY Islanders 70.7
4. Philadelphia 69.3
5. Detroit 65.8
Clearly this puts Detroit in the drivers seat. 10 of the Wing's last 19 games are against teams currently not in the playoffs. They play Toronto, Montreal, Columbus and Philly each twice and they also play Buffalo and Winnipeg.
At the other end of the spectrum the Bruins have a much tougher time of it. From March 3rd to March 8 they have 4 TOUGH games in 6 days. They are home to Chicago and Washington and then travel to Florida and Tampa. Then, the next week they travel to play all three California teams over 5 days only to to travel back across the country to face the Rangers in MSG and then home to Florida for a Wednesday/Thursday back to back. Then on April 1st and 3rd they travel to St Louis and Chicago! That is a crazy schedule.. It is a good thing they kept Eriksson and added Liles and Stempniak.
Percentage of Home versus Away games
1. Philadelphia 50% home
2. Boston 47%
2. Detroit 47%
4. NY Islanders 45%
5. Pittsburgh 42 %
Remarkably the road to the playoffs is going to be paved on the literal road. None of these teams have more home games than away games and only the Flyers have an even split.
Controlling Their Own Destiny Games left versus the other 4 teams they are battling for a spot.
1. Philadelphia: 7 games (35% of remaining) 3 vs Pit (2 at home), 2 @ NYI, Home and Home vs. Detroit.
2. Pittsburgh: 7 games (33% of remaining) 3 vs Phl (1 at home), 3 vs NYI (1 at home), @Det
3. Islanders: 6 (27% of remaining) 3 vs Pit (2 at home), 2 home vs. Phl, @Boston
4. Detroit: 5 games (26% of remaining) 2 Philly (home & home). @ Bos, Pitt Home
5. Boston: 2 games (11% of remaining) Home against the NYI and Det.
Boston is going to be doing the most scoreboard watching to be sure with only 2 games left versus the other 4.
Clearly the battle in the Metro will be decided on the ice as there are 8 games left that will see some combination of the Islanders, Penguins and Flyers...and historically these teams have played some great games against each other. If we took the last 5 games these teams have played against each other the standings would look like this...
The Penguins have struggled against the Islanders and Flyers recently, however it should be noted the Penguins only two wins came in their most recent games vs the Flyers and Islanders. Beating the Islanders 5-2 on Jan 2 and beating the Flyers 4-3 on January 21.
Breaking down the Difficult Areas in the Schedules...
We already discussed the Bruins crazy insane schedule above.
As for the rest:
Flyers
The Flyers have six very tough games left. They travel to Chicago and are home to Washington. They have a home & home with Tampa and they play Columbus twice. I know Columbus may be viewed as a good thing, but not for the Flyers. Columbus is 6-1 against the Flyers since the beginning of last year, with the Flyers only win being a miraculous comeback in Philly on one of the greatest goals you'll ever see by Claude Giroux.
Penguins
The Pens play 16 games in 31 days in March. In fact through the rest of the season they play almost every Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday, only skipping 3. They only play 1 game on a Friday. Perhaps a bigger issue is three games left against Washington, who they are 2-3 versus in their last 5 games. Shockingly they play 18 of their 21 games against the Metro Division, and for the Penguins that is NOT a good thing. Going back to last year they are 17-26-6 vs the Metro.
Islanders
The Isles, like the Penguins, play 16 games in March's 31 days. The Isles tru test starts now with 5 of their next 6 games and 8 of their next 10 games on the road. The Isles have been a better home team this year by a wide margin and have essentially been a .500 team away from Brooklyn. Tough games left: They have two games against the Rangers in MSG and two games versus Tampa. The also travel to Washington. The Isles end the season playing 6 games in 9 days.
Detroit
Their schedule is a close as "cushy" the rest of the way as it can get, with the real test coming in the next two games...a home & home with the Hawks. They do still have a home & home versus the Rangers...When looking at the rest of the schedule the best I can do is to note they have 4 of their last 6 games on the road and they end the season with 3 games in 4 nights.
Breaking down the best schedule bonuses:
Bruins
Not a whole lot to be thankful for here..but one counter intuitive fact is there and was pointed out by a reader in the comments...Boston has the 2nd best road record in the league (21-7-3) so it's in their best interest to play away from home. The Bruins get Carolina home twice (but Carolina can be tough) and they do travel to NJ and Toronto. They end on a three game homestand with games versus Carolina, Detroit, and Ottawa.
Flyers
Seven of their final 20 come against non-playoff teams...but that is not always a great thing for the Flyers. Last year the Flyers record versus non-playoff teams flat out killed them. Believe it or not the Flyers had a very strong winning record last year against teams who made the playoffs. This year they have been a little better against the softer teams, but have still lost too many points recently against teams below them in the standings. Three games versus the Penguins is a huge positive for the Flyers who have dominated the Penguins going 8-2 in their last 10. The Flyers are the only team among these five who play both Edmonton and Toronto still. They also play Winnipeg.
Islanders
The Islanders REALLY control their fate with 6 games left against the other 4 teams, but they are also chasing the Rangers who they play twice. They end the season playing 8 of their last 10 at home. They do still have Toronto and Buffalo on their schedule. They have 4 game left away versus the Western Conference (Vancouver, Winnipeg, Nashville and Dallas) and while that could be viewed a as a problem to most teams from the East the Islanders are an unbelievable 17-4-2 versus the West this season.
Penguins
Travel. They don't leave the time zone the rest of the way and travel VERY little to their remaining games. The furthest plane trip they have is actually Ottawa. They have historically struggled against the Metro, but the glass half full way of looking at this is they very much can control their fate and they are playing very good hockey lately. Only 3 opponents outside the Metro remain.
Detroit
Finally, the rest of the way the Wings would appear to have it made in the shade. 10 of their last 19 games are against non-playoff teams. 2 each versus the Leafs, Canadiens, Columbus, and the Flyers. They also face the Jets and Sabres. They play 4 of their next 6 games at home.
Conclusion?
Of course it is hard to draw conclusions here. Stats and trends aside you have to take it one game at a time and you need to win the games. I do believe the cards look stacked more against the Bruins for several reasons, the most of which is the dreaded 3 point game. I hate the three point game more than anything else in this sport.
Since the Bruins only play two games against the teams they are battling they will be scoreboard watching A LOT and they will be seeing the teams they are chasing grabbing an extra point here and there at an alarming rate...They play a lot of Western teams still and have only won 19 of 50 games versus the West over the last two seasons.
Based on the schedule I believe we will see two wildcard teams from the Metro. The battle will be between the Penguins, Flyers and Bruins for that final spot, but you have to think all those games between the Isles, Pens and Flyers will yield several extra points...
What do you think?
We will of course discuss all this and more on today's show starting at 315..
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