The official word on restricted free agent Ryan O'Reilly's negotiations with the Colorado Avalanche is that the two sides remain at an impasse. However, my feeling from day one in his situation has been that an offer sheet from another team would be the only way he could fetch nearly the contractual price tag he and agent Mark Guy have set.
He isn't going to "win" the negotiation with Colorado, regardless of the number of injuries on the team. The fact that Montreal got its way from the P.K. Subban negotiations and Dallas got a favorable deal from the Jamie Benn contract only emboldens the Avs even further to stick to their guns with O'Reilly.
If another team were to sign O'Reilly to an offer sheet, it probably already would have happened. However, with some teams banged up and/or struggling in the early going, that window is not totally closed yet. I'm not expecting it to happen, but it's not an outlandish thought.
For one thing, O'Reilly is the type of player for whom it is not all that difficult to see the Avalanche setting a walk-away point if another team were to sufficiently overpay him in an offer sheet. Yes, he's just 21 years. Yes, he blossomed last season and led Colorado in scoring while playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. Yes, he's a sound two-way player who contributes on the PK even when the points aren't coming in bunches.
But is O'Reilly a TRUE nucleus player in the same manner as Calder Trophy winning teammate Landeskog or is he just a nice complementary piece? I'd argue based on his career progression from junior hockey through his first three pro seasons that he's currently the latter with a chance to work his way to the former.
That being the case, O'Reilly is a good candidate for a "bridge contract" that will give him a bump up from his entry-level deal and give him a chance to get another big raise in his next deal if he shows he can build on last season.
If the situation remains stalemated much longer, the Avalanche will start to get serious about pursuing some of the trade offers that have come in. Quite a few teams looking for a young forward have kicked tires but everyone has been taking a wait-and-see attitude in the early going of the season.
That could change -- and very soon. The usual-suspect teams (Toronto, Vancouver, Philadelphia) all have some interest and there are even some dark horse teams like Dallas that could enter the trading picture.
The other day, a HockeyBuzz reader emailed me a question about O'Reilly: Since he played in the KHL after the start of the NHL season (although he's since left Metallurg Magnitogorsk), wouldn't he be subject to CBA rule 13.23 that states he'd have to clear waivers to return to Colorado this season?
To be honest, I didn't know the answer to that question. Unfortunately, this has been an exceptionally crazy week and I didn't have opportunity to research it. So yesterday afternoon, I asked Bill Meltzer if he knew the definitive answer, and he pledged to find out.
CBA rule 13.23 states, "In the event a professional or former professional Player plays in a league outside North America after the start of the NHL Regular Season, other than on Loan from his Club, he may thereafter play in the NHL during that Playing Season (including Playoffs)only if he has first either cleared or been obtained via Waivers."
However, one of the player-friendly changes negotiated in the new CBA was a relaxing of rule 13.23 in certain situations. According to the Summary of Terms (Page 19, Article 13, section 1) of the new NHL-NHLPA agreement is the following amendment: "All Players on a Club’s Reserve List and Restricted Free Agent List will be exempt from application of CBA 13.23 Waivers in the case of a mid-season signing."
A late-night email from NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly confirms that O'Reilly would be the first case under the newly amended rules if and when he returns to the NHL this season.
Daly wrote, " No, he would not be subject to waivers. He would have been under last year's rules, but that was changed in collective bargaining."
So there you have it. O'Reilly can come right back to the Avalanche this season -- or another team, if he is traded -- without the team having to worry about losing him to waivers.
The official reason for O'Reilly's contract termination with Metallurg was that he has a foot injury. While it is possible that he has an injury, it is also very common for Russian teams to use phantom injuries as a cover reason to save face when a notable player leaves their league.
For instance, the official reason for Ilya Bryzgalov's departure from CSKA Moscow shortly before the end of the lockout was that he needed to consult with a U.S.-based specialist for an upper-body injury that had been "aggravated" in a game against SKA St. Petersburg. Of course, it was a lot of bunk. Bryzgalov was on the ice at the Flyers' training facility in Voorhees about 48 hours later.
With the KHL season about to hit its stretch drive soon and a transfer deadline looming at the time of O'Reilly's departure, Metallurg had reason to remove O'Reilly from its roster. Without knowing for 100 percent certain that he's not injured, the injury announcement seemed to be more a convenience than a legitimate concern about his physical ability to play in the near future.
My prediction: Look for O'Reilly to be back on the ice and playing hockey within the next couple weeks -- after signing a contract that's close to what the Avalanche have been offering all along.
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