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Every year I like to look at the matchups heading into the playoffs...also known as
"Who wants to play who in the NHL Playoffs.."
I have found that if you took records of one team versus another in the current season and the season prior you tend to get the most accurate predictor of playoff success you can get. Also very interesting is a team's record versus all of their possible matchups.
I based these records on the nine teams who have the best shot of making the playoffs in each Conference. In the East I ran every team versus every team since there is a possibility that anyone could still play anyone in the entirety of the playoffs in the East. In the West I ran all the records with the exception of Colorado vs Minnesota (which Minnesota has dominated 8-1-1 by the way) since only one of these two teams could make the playoffs...and therefore they can't face each other. The results are pretty surprising and show you very clearly how some teams perform better against playoff teams than they do non-playoff teams...And that will matter a few weeks from now.
Who are the best of the 18 against possible opponents and who are the worst?
The Best:
Only 4 teams of the 18 are playing over .600 hockey versus their possible opponents over the last two seasons....
#1: Washington: .682 Winning % +24 Goal Differential
The Caps are up top, but not just because of this season's dominance. Who they want to play:
Boston: The Caps are a perfect 6-0 versus the Bruins
NY Islanders: 5-0-2
Tampa 5-1 Who they want to avoid:
NY Rangers: 4-5
Florida: 3-3
Philly 3-2-2
#2: Boston : .639 Winning % +16 Goal Differential
Despite missing the playoffs last season and still fighting for their lives this year, if they do get in they could be real trouble. Who they want to play:
Pittsburgh: 5-0-1
NY Islanders 5-1
Flyers 4-1-1
Florida 5-2-1 Who they want to avoid:
Washington:0-5-1
NY Rangers 3-3
Tampa 4-3-1
#3: Anaheim : .606 Winning % -6 Goal Differential
The Ducks obviously win close games to be a minus differential... Who they want to play:
LA Kings: 7-1-1
Minnesota: 5-1
Nashville: 4-2 Who they want to avoid:
Chicago 2-2-2
San Jose 4-5
Colorado 2-3
#4: St Louis : .602 Winning % +6 Goal Differential
The Blues also appear to be peaking right now.. They are very even versus most teams they could face in terms of records.. Who they want to play:
Dallas 7-3
Nashville 6-4 Who they want to avoid:
Anaheim 3-2-2
San Jose 3-2-1
Colorado 4-2-2
#4: San Jose: .580 Winning % +6 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
Dallas 7-3
Colorado 4-1-1
Minnesota 3-1-1
Anaheim 5-3-1 Who they want to avoid:
Chicago 2-3-1
Nashville 2-3
LA Kings 4-4-1
#6. Colorado: .578 Winning % +6 Goal Differential
Despite the odds being stacked against them to make the playoffs, if they do they have had very good success against their possible opponents...and remember last year they weren't a playoff team either... Who they want to play:
Dallas 7-0-1
Anaheim 3-1-1 Who they want to avoid:
LA Kings 2-4
San Jose 2-3-1
Chicago 4-4-1
#7:Florida: .572 Winning % +4 Goal Differential
The Panthers also play these teams tougher than their overall record the last 2 seasons would imply. Who they want to play:
NY Islanders 4-1-1
Flyers 4-2
Washington 3-1-2 Who they want to avoid:
NY Rangers 1-4-1
Boston 3-3-2
Pittsburgh 2-2-2
#8:Nashville: .557 Winning % +1 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
LA Kings: 4-0-2
Minnesota: 5-3-1
Dallas: 4-2-2 Who they want to avoid:
Chicago 3-4-2
Anaheim 2-3-1
St Louis 4-4-2
#9: Chicago: .555 Winning % +7 Goal Differential
The Hawks are of course a different team in the playoffs....for sure.. Who they want to play:
Nashville 6-3
Anaheim 4-1-1 Who they want to avoid:
Dallas 4-6
Minnesota 3-5-1
St Louis 4-3-2
#10: Philadelphia: .557 Winning % +6 Goal Differential
The Flyers have also played better against these teams versus their overall performance. Who they want to play:
Washington 4-3
Pittsburgh 4-2
Detroit 4-1 Who they want to avoid:
NY Rangers 3-4-2
NY Islanders 3-2-3
Boston 2-3-1
#11: Minnesota: .547 Winning % +1 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
Chicago 6-3
Dallas 5-2-3 Who they want to avoid:
Anaheim 1-5
St Louis 4-3-2
#12: NY Islanders: .546 Winning % -12 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
NY Rangers 6-2
Pittsburgh 5-2-1
Flyers 5-3 Who they want to avoid:
Boston 1-5
Washington 2-3-2
Florida 2-2-2
#13: NY Rangers: .545 Winning % -8 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
Florida 5-1
Flyers 6-2-1
Washington 5-3-1 Who they want to avoid:
NY Islanders 2-5-1
Tampa 1-4
#14: Tampa: .538 Winning % +6 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
NY Rangers 4-1
Pittsburgh 4-2
Detroit 5-3 Who they want to avoid:
Washington 1-5
NY Islanders 2-3
#15: LA Kings: .538 Winning % -7 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
Colorado 4-2
San Jose 5-4 Who they want to avoid:
Anaheim 2-4-3
Nashville 2-2-2
#16: Dallas: .508 Winning % -12 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
Chicago 6-2-2
Nashville 4-3-1 Who they want to avoid:
St Louis 3-3-4
San Jose 3-3-4
Colorado 1-5-2
#17: Pittsburgh: .500 Winning % -20 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
Detroit 4-1
Florida 4-0-2
NY Rangers 4-3-1 Who they want to avoid:
Boston 1-4-1
Washington 3-5
Flyers 2-3-1
#18: Detroit: .462 Winning % -28 Goal Differential Who they want to play:
NY Rangers 3-0-2 Who they want to avoid:
Tampa 3-4-1
Washington 2-2-2
Pittsburgh 2-4
Matchup Cup As of March 28, 2015
East
Flyers (4-3) over Washington
Florida (4-1-1) over Isles
NY Rangers (4-2-2) over Pitt
Tampa (4-2-2) over Boston
NY Rangers (6-2-1) over Flyers
Florida (5-4) over Tampa
NY Rangers (5-1) over Florida
West
Minnesota (5-2-3) over Dallas
Nashville (4-0-2) over LA
Chicago (5-4) over St Louis
San Jose (5-3-1) over Anaheim
Minnesota (6-3) over Chicago
Nashville (3-2) over San Jose
Nashville (5-3-1) over Minnesota
Cup Final
NY Rangers (2-2 Goal Diff of +3) Over Nashville
We will of course discuss all this and more on today's Podcast live at 1:20Pm
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