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Chris Kreider: Rangers Need to Take Leap of Faith and Sign Him Long Term

August 5, 2015, 11:36 PM ET [207 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Back in June, i posed my top 20+ questions heading into to the offseason. Two months later, in my opinion, questions 2, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21 have been answered either through action or inaction. In essence, slightly more half have been answered in one way or the other. Today, we tackle #1:

1. How good can Chris Kreider be and will his "defensive and hockey intelligence limitations" prevent him from reaching true sniper status?
2. Will/should Rick Nash be traded and if so, who would you like to be brought back?
3. Do the Rangers have enough to win the Stanley Cup, even with making the right moves this offseason?
4. Must the Rangers find a physical forward and defenseman in order to take that next step?
5. Would you deal Cam Talbot, knowing there is no true back up goalie that can play 20-25 games behind Henrik Lundqvist in the organization?
6. Should we be concerned with AV's inability to adjust the style of play to counter how Tampa played in Games 5 and 7?
7. For how many years and for what kind of dollars should the Rangers sign Derek Stepan?
8. Did JT Miller's performance in the playoffs, especially after he was moved up to the top-six, convince you that he has locked up a spot in the top-nine next season? Similar question related to Jesper Fast, is he a lock for the third-line? Are either at risk of an offer sheet?
9. How high is Kevin Hayes' ceiling and will he take a major step forward next year, building on his solid rookie campaign?
10. Should the Rangers bring back Martin St. Louis, if he is willing to sign for a low base with mild incentives or has that ship sailed?
11. Is what we have seen from Carl Hagelin all there is and should he be moved at the deadline to create cap room and replenish the system? If he is brought back, what type of years/dollars should he receive?
12. Which was the real Kevin Klein? The one who has the dominant first half of the season or the one who struggled after returning from the broken arm? Even if the former, does his $2.9 mil salary, need to create cap room and acquire picks and presence of Brady Skjei (and possibly Mike Reilly) make him expendable?
13. Did we see enough from Keith Yandle in the playoffs to believe he will be the answer on the power play during the regular season? Or does his high-risk, high-reward, pass-first style pave his way out of town?
14. Must Dan Boyle morph into Anton Stralman for the fans not to wish he had a one-way ticket anywhere else but New York?
15. Is Dan Girardi the most reviled Ranger because of his salary, perception he is the reason why Stralman isn't here and blue collar, anti-Corsi style?
16. Did Tanner Glass show enough in the playoffs to quell the boo-birds and even if so, does he still have a place on this team?
17. Do you look to bring back James Sheppard or let him walk, regardless of price?
18. Can Oscar Lindberg, Ryan Hagerty, Conor Allen, Dylan McIlrath or Skjei earn a spot on next year's squad?
19. Which free agents would you target?
20. Who would you look to trade?
One more for good measure, which I have asked the past two years and we likely have covered already. 21. Will GM Glen Sather return next year? Even if he will, should NY indicate Jeff Gorton is the future GM to avoid losing him?

Kreider enters the season in the final year of the two-year deal he signed last July that was worth $2.35 million in year one and $2.60 million in year two for an average AAV of $2.475 mil. Each season, we keep saying we are waiting for that breakout campaign from Kreider. Yet, ironically enough, last season was Kreider's first "full" season.

In 2011-12, he was brought up during the playoffs. In 2012-13, it was the lockout campaign and he only played 23 games with the Rangers, scoring two goals with one assist. Struggles with the defensive side of the game as well as understanding game situation limited him to what was just half-a-year of contests.

The following season, 2013-14, he opened the year in the minors. But injuries and a horrible road trip to open the year, prompted the team to call him up for Hartford. Kreider showed signs of breaking out, tallying 17 goals and 20 assists in 66 games, and better on-ice situational awareness. Yet, you were left wanting more.

Last season, he started to put it all together. For the most part, much better game understanding. Plus, he used his speed and strength to create chances not only for himself but his teammates. Just as important, he knew when to stick up for his teammates and get his nose dirty and when not respond to situations on the ice. Kreider set career-highs in games with 80 games, goals with 21, assists with 25 and a plus-minus of +24.

Evidence of how well he played can be seen in the advanced stats metrics. You can see the progression of his impact on linemates in the a three-year span and during the prior season below:

2013-15:


2015:



However, more impressive is his Hero chart. Despite ice time that is a borderline second liner, his own production is like a high second liner, while the impact on his teammates scoring is as if he was first liner.



When I think of Kreider, my thoughts are of a burgeoning power forward. That view is supported by when he tallied his goals. By distance, Kreider scored 12 goals from 0-10ft away from the net, eight goals from 10-20ft, one from 20-30ft out. To me, that speaks of a power forward.

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index.php?season=Regular&year=2014-2015&shots=For&team=&ice_player_name=&withPlayer=On+Ice&player_name=CHRIS+KREIDER&goalie_name=&zero=yes&ten=yes&twenty=yes&thirty=yes&event=Goals&game=Home+and+Away&strength=All&time=Regulation&search=Search

When I think of Kreider and what he could be, two names come to mind. My caveat is while he is not there and may never be there, the potential to be a similar player exists. Those two names are Brendan Shanahan and Keith Tkachuk. A look at their production their first two years is what drives that view.

Shanny scored seven goals and added 19 assists in 65 games his first year. In his sophomore campaign, Shanahan had 22 goals and 28 assists in 68 games. The third season saw the breakout, as Shanny posted 30 and 42 in 73 games.

Tkachuk played 17 games his first year, scoring three goals and five assists. His second year saw him tally 28 goals and add 23 assists in 83 games. Tkachuk's third year was the breakout season with 41 goals and 40 assists in 84 games.

Like Shanahan and Tkachuk. Kreider had so-so numbers his first year, albeit much worse than those two. All three took a step forward in their second season, with Kreider lagging slightly behind. The third year saw the explosion for Shanny and Tkachuk while CK20 had his best campaign to date, which we all believes bodes well for future growth. Similar can be seen in his 18 playoff goals in 60 games.

However, there were too many games with Kreider was there in name only. As his jersey and body was there but the production and presence were lacking. It's good that he recognizes how much more he can give and grow, which is why he is availing himself of mental and physical resources to get to that next step.

If Kreider has the season may of us expect, who could be 30-30 as a kind of a starting point, he will be set up for a huge pay day. That's why for as good of a job GM Jeff Gorton has done this offseason, I would love him and the organization to be proactive and lock up Kreider long-term.

Philly took a leap of faith signing Sean Couturier to a six-year, $26 million contract extension. New York should do something similar. Lock Kreider up now. Recognize the current production and potential for so much more by being aggressive and not waiting for him to capitalize on what could be a breakout campaign. Give him an offer similar to what Philly did with 22-year old center. Make Kreider a focus now and hopefully that saves you money on the back end.

Lock up CK20 long-term now.
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