The Rangers like the rest of the NHL are in the midst of the All-Star break. Like always, that time off is a chance for reflection on the first half and look forward to the second. Within that look forward comes the projection as to what the team might do before the February 29 trade deadline. Of course, that's something we and many others have been doing for a while but now it's become almost the sole focus with no games on the schedule.
Pat Leonard in Thursday's NY Daily News listed four possible trade options. While specific names are mentioned, thematically he mirrors what Larry Brooks, Steve Zipay, Andrew Gross, Rick Carpinello and many others - including us - have talked about and something I hit in my prior blog. Whether the team as currently constituted is good enough to make a Cup run with the prevailing view that they aren't, especially with the big names that need to be carrying play struggling. In addition, any move requires maneuvering to stay under the cap, due to the minimal amount of room remaining and likelihood of exceeding that number based on the names getting tossed about in the marketplace.
SHATT’S ALL, FOLKS
St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk was born in New Rochelle. He grew up a Rangers fan. His favorite player was Brian Leetch, and it’s believed he wants to play for the Blueshirts one day. He turns 27 on Friday. He is a right-handed shot and a major power play weapon, and he paired with Rangers captain Ryan McDonagh on the United States’ 2008-09 World Junior championship team.
Shattenkirk’s representatives would not comment, but St. Louis needs help up front, it will have to deal from the back end to get it, and Shattenkirk is its likeliest trade chip, since he will command a significant raise when his $4.25 million annual cap hit expires in summer 2017.
If Blues GM Doug Armstrong were willing to deal, he presumably would demand either Rick Nash or Chris Kreider in return. Nash, 31, reveres St. Louis coach Ken Hitchcock from their time together in Columbus, and he no longer has a full no-move clause — only a limited no-trade — so that might allow for a reunion. The cap-strapped Rangers would get out from Nash’s $7.8 million cap hit the next two seasons. Kreider, 24, will be a restricted free agent but could be sold high if Gorton prefers the upsides of J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes.
Trading Nash or Kreider would hurt the Rangers’ chances of winning this year, but if Nash comes up empty in the playoffs again, wouldn’t a summer swap for Shattenkirk make sense? With Dan Boyle’s $4.5 million coming off the books and Keith Yandle likely headed for free agency, next season’s Rangers blue line could be McDonagh-Shattenkirk, Marc Staal-Dan Girardi, Brady Skjei-Kevin Klein.
My take, as I wrote in the blog comments yesterday. I love Shatty, always have, but given the way the team is currently constituted giving up Nash, even though it creates cap room, or Kreider seems to be robbing Peter to pay Paul. Maybe you can deal Yandle for a top-six forward, but as we saw last year when NY got Yandle, length of term remaining on a deal has a big impact. So the return for Yandle would be a lot less than the required outlay for Shattenkirk.
The hit to the offense, especially given all our complaints about how the top six is not set and production has been limited, would be huge. The drop in recent production would increase with moving out a Nash or Kreider, even if Buchnevich did come over. Now, if the view is Long Term disregarding an attempt at a Cup run this year and the cap savings from moving a Nash and adding a Shattenkirk offset by what Yandle is currently making is used to sign a top six forward in the offseason, then maybe it makes sense. But I don't see it happening for the reasons stated above.
STAND PAT ON PAT
Yandle is the Rangers’ best trade bait because he is an expiring unrestricted free agent (UFA) that they probably can’t afford to re-sign. However, as in Nash’s case, it would be difficult for Gorton to trade Yandle now and make his team better for this spring’s Cup chase. The Blueshirts wouldn’t be replacing Yandle with a better defenseman in a deal. They would be trading him for a forward and probably promoting Skjei or righty Raphael Diaz for the playoffs. There are excellent reports on Skjei from Hartford, but that would be asking a lot. Vigneault prefers having equal number left- and-right-handed D-men, so Diaz may not make sense, either.
Yandle’s uncle, Mike, is a professional scout with the San Jose Sharks. San Jose veteran left wing Patrick Marleau, 36, said he would waive his no-trade clause for one of three teams, including the Rangers. San Jose needs help on defense, and GM Doug Wilson and Rangers president Glen Sather have a well-documented history of deals. But Marleau’s additional year at $6.67 million seems too costly, and the Sharks wouldn’t have any stop-gap lefty D-man to send back in the package.
I agree with Pat Leonard and think most do the same. Marleau like Joe Thornton has been rumored to be on the Rangers' radar for a while. Those rumors picked up when Marleau listed the Rangers as one of the team's he would accept a deal. In order to get Marleau, besides moving an asset, cap room might need to be cleared unless it's Girardi, Staal or Boyle moved.
As Leonard mentioned, even if that was the case, the extra year remaining at that cap hit makes any deal a no-go, regardless of if you can move a contract back. With Miller, Kreider and Hayes all RFA and in need of bigger deals coupled with determination still to be made on Yandle along with possible drop in the cap, adding salary is a non-starter. Plus, Marleau's production has started and likely will wane even more next year, so staying away is the prudent course of action.
DANGLE DYLAN FOR DROUIN
Would Gorton offer Steve Yzerman rookie Dylan McIlrath and a first-round pick for Jonathan Drouin? Would the Tampa Bay GM accept it? Yzerman reportedly wants a young, right-handed defenseman, and he is trying to trade Drouin, 20, the 2013 third-overall pick, following the uber-talented winger’s public trade request and subsequent suspension for refusing to show up to an AHL game. McIlrath (UFA on July 1, $600,000 cap hit) makes a good first pass, has a strong shot, plays responsibly in his own end and has a mean streak. But since Vigneault insists on playing Boyle over him, the Rangers might as well trade him while he has value. Sather has given Yzerman enough first-rounders already, but Gorton could justify it in a deal for Drouin. It would be like the Rangers’ signing of Hayes, a former Chicago first-round pick who never inked with the Blackhawks — another way of finding the first-round talent they couldn’t draft.
First, it's amazing that we are even at the point where dealing McIlrath would cause some pause given his status when the year started. Then, to have his name mentioned as a possible return for Drouin is even more unfathomable. But we are kind of at that point, though it's not clear if Steve Yzerman is there as well.
Despite all the rhetoric with Drouin, Stevie Y still holds the cards. They haven't fallen off a cliff without him. His contract means that even if he stays in the minors, there is no cap hit on the team. Plus since he is under team control for a while longer, they can let this play out. Interest in the league in Drouin is clearly there. But as we say with the Ryan Callahan deal, even when it looks like Yzerman has no negotiating power, don't rule him out. Since he is like baby and won't be put in a corner and can wait and wait and wait until the right deal presents itself or he just won't make a trade.
On paper, this is deal that would make sense for both teams. From NY standpoint, they get a possible game-breaking winger while TB gets a cheap, controllable, young d-man with a pick. For the Rangers, to make this kind of a deal - presuming it was available - some of the following questions will need to be asked and answered.
1) What is being done with Yandle? Plus is Skjei ready? The answer to both could determine if and-man can be moved.
2) If the answer to 1 is that he is gone and no he's not ready, then you also have to ask what will be done with G and Staal. Since if you could even move one, it would leave a hole in the blue line that was to be filled by McIlrath.
3) Do you truly believe Drouin is a game breaker? As we have seen in the past, a high draft spot is no guarantee of success. The league has historically been littered by high first rounders who have flamed out or not reached their potential. If getting Drouin with the associated cost above, especially if it costs a first rounder, which NY hasn't had one for a bit and something they painfully to us move almost annually, you had better be damn sure Drouin is the real deal.
OTHER NAMES TO WATCH
Winnipeg captain Andrew Ladd, 30, would be the perfect hardnosed rental winger at $4.4 million, but Gorton couldn’t justify sending a first-rounder back considering Ladd’s age and no guarantee for the future
As I have said before, I would love Ladd. His leadership on and off the ice as well as production and spot in the top-six would all fill areas of need. But the cost will be prohibitive and a first rounder can't be moved for a rental.
Left wing Pavel Buchnevich, 20, will be eligible to sign when SKA-St. Petersburg is eliminated from the KHL playoffs in the range of Feb. 21-April 19, but it’s tough to count on the Rangers’ 2013 third-rounder coming in that late to be the hero
This was a question in my prior blog. Get him here and see if he can give the type a Kreider-esque boost in the playoffs. Even if not, he provides another weapon.
Girardi ($5.5 million through 2019-20) and Staal ($5.7 million through 2020-21) have full no-move clauses that become limited no-trades in 2017-18 and 2018-19, respectively. Getting adequate return now would be difficult anyway due to down years.
Covered this a bit above and in my comments today in my prior blog on Claude Giroux calling G underrated. Here they are again: "I have defended Girardi in the past and will continue to do so when appropriate. He has struggled this year, there is no question about it. With that, the long term deal he signed looks like a major mistake. But the wear and tear from his type of game and injury this offseason makes that somewhat understandable. Yet, we all know, or at least I believe, when the postseason starts, he will be sacrificing his body and making key plays at key moments to give NY a chance to win.
His possession numbers are lousy but don't believe they really ever have been particularly good. So the decline shouldn't be viewed as a major change from that. To me, more concerning is the drop off in Staal's play, since he is younger and would seem to have less wear and tear. Granted, he too is coming off an injury and has had major injuries, but his decline kind of came out of nowhere while G's has been a bit more gradual."
STILL MORE NAMES TO WATCH
Other names out there as possible rentals are Teddy Purcell, Radim Vrbata, Jiri Hudler and Eric Staal to name a few. Purcell has been very up and down his career and even this year in Edmonton. But if that team is unable to continue their recent better play with RNH out, they could be sellers. If so, it would be worthwhile to kick the tires on Purcell. Vrbata was brilliant with the Sedins last year and nightmarish without them. Presumably that would chance with a change in locale might be dangerous. Also, I am unsure if NY currently has the type of playmaking center that Vrbata needs to excel, even with Stepan and Brassard here.
To me, with Calgary out of it, Hudler would make a ton of sense but he will get a lot of interest. He has struggled this year but I believe some of it is injury related. Hudler's cap hit is just about what NY could take on especially if Calgary's eats a bit of salary. But I do expect a bidding war for him. Staal has been talked about a ton. The cap hit, return required and probably of him sticking in Carolina is why I think a deal is unlikely.
What say you?
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