Before the season started we heard all about the new training of Dustin Brown.
We heard about the nutritionist, the new workout regimen, and the off-season commitment made by the Kings captain to better himself. More importantly, it was meant to better his numbers. The same numbers that have looked incredibly disjointed when compared to the amount of money he is adding to the Kings' cap.
So far this year, No. 23 has been put in the best possible position to succeed. He started the season briefly on the third line, but was quickly elevated to the Kings top line alongside Kopitar and Gaborik. He is getting the fourth most time on ice amongst Kings forwards behind Kopitar, Carter, and Toffoli (Thank god). He is also fourth on the team in average powerplay time behind Kopitar, Carter, and Gaborik.
The result so far?
Nada
Zilch
Nothing.
12 games and a team-leading 44 shots later, Dustin Brown has zero goals. After failing to mark up the goal column last night against St. Louis, Brown has now scored just one goal in his last 37 games dating back to last season.
You cannot really argue with the disappointing nature of some of these numbers, especially when listed together
But why?
Why is Dustin Brown struggling? Is there some reason we can point to? Some element of the game that he has let slip in his aging seasons? He is by no means in his prime anymore, but should 20 goals or, heck, even 15 be out of the question for a once time 30+ player and regular 20+ scorer?
The best we can do is try to look back at Brown's decision to shoot in the past, and compare it to where he is at now.
Thanks to the site Sporting Charts, we can get a look at the heat map of each player and where they shoot from. We can also get things like shot distances, types of shot, and shooting percentages and different on-ice situations.
For example, here is Dustin Brown so far this year:
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The Key things we want to look at here are, the average distance and where the shots are coming from. Style, be it slap, snap, or wrist, will come into play later maybe.
Let's go back to a larger sample size of Dustin Brown's goal struggles. 2014-15 was the captain's worst offensive year to date. Some of it was bad luck, and some of it, well, you'll see.
The Sporting Charts heat maps only go back as far as 2009-10, so unfortunately we cannot see the heat map of Dustin Brown's most productive year: 33 goals in 2007-08. However, we can see 2010-13, which were three seasons of relatively productive years of 20+ goals and 50+ points. (The lockout shortened year would have actually been a career year for Brown by pro-rating his production)
Let's side by side 2011-12 (When this project became more and more accurate), with 2014-15 Brown.
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What do you notice?
These are similar even strength seasons. 10 goals versus 12. 6.1% versus 7.5%. And finally, 162 shots to 159.
The average shot distance is actually just under one foot further out in 2011-12, but this is a good starting point to recognize where Brown is shooting from.
While there are still a good amount of shots coming from a dangerous area, it's hard to recognize how dangerous the majority of his 2014-15 shots were. The distance might have been better, but when you look at some little things you can see less and less of them in prime areas.
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There are more pockets of shot generation further out, and in heavier concentration than in 2011-12. Although those pockets do exist in 2011-12, they aren't nearly as frequent. Also, the black box should be considered the golden road to goal, and you can see how the shots down low are pushed primarily to the side with a fairly light concentration in the middle to low slot.
Minor differences, but still further outside of a high scoring area than you may want. Brown pushes to the net, but he is not pushing to the slot, he is pushing to the side of the net. How many dangles and power moves can you remember from Dustin Brown in the last year or two? You know the one, go 1v1 and drive wide.
Let's go to 2013-14, the first year in which we saw Brown start to decline.
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You cannot say he was not in the right areas, but we also started to see more shots from the outside, and the average shot distance is still 30+ feet. The concentration though, the concentration from the slot, was significant. He just couldn't finish.
You can see that Brown has, for one reason or another, had more difficulty over the years in A) scoring from high scoring areas, and in more recent seasons B) getting to the REAL high scoring areas. As his shot has maybe lost a little bit as he has aged, he has not compensated by getting into better positions.
For sake of comparison, let's look at some players of similar ilk to Brown. Milan Lucic for example.
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Lucic is smack dab in the middle of the ice. Less about quantity, but more about quality. Also, what you cannot see on this chart, Lucic had 14 tip-in shots to Brown's 8. He went to the front and put himself in the position to be successful.
Let's jump to the Islanders forward Kyle Okposo
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How about a totally unfair comparison but still a lesson in where you are shooting from, last year's NHL leading scorer Jamie Benn.
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And ultimately, just because he is my all-time favorite player in opting for quality shots over quantity of shots...Alex Tanguay. His bafflingly high career 18.9 shooting percentage is compounded in its utter insanity by the fact that he routinely takes under 100 shots a season. Compare that to Brown's 200 mark that he is well on the way to surpassing this year.
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Forget linemates for a second, forget off-season training regimen. Dustin Brown is not getting to the high scoring areas and/or shooting from them. There are many reasons for this. We have already talked about how age and player style have played their part, but what about the team mentality. The "Shot mentality" of the L.A. Kings. That too may be playing a part in the ultimate decline of one of the Kings franchise forwards. Instead of holding the puck, or carrying it to a higher scoring areas, the Kings are content with flinging a lot of harmless pucks on net in an effort to get second and third chances. This would be great and all if it was not Brown doing the shooting, and Brown doing the shooting from areas like the ones we have covered. It is great to take 180-200+ shots a year if you have a shot like Alex Ovechkin or Tyler Seguin. Problem is, Brown doesn't! At this point, a page out of Milan Lucic's book wouldn't hurt in prolonging the productivity of Brown. Defer the puck instead of carrying it, get to the net, and reap the reward of being in the right place at the right time. Over the years we have seen that that simply is not his play style. He leads the team in carrying the puck into the zone so far in 2015-16, which is not a positive sign in at least this writer's opinion.
So far, in 2015-16, it is looking more and more bleak for one of the highest paid forwards on the team.
We will check back over the season and see where Brown goes on his heat map, but so far it is a whole lot of meh.
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Almost 35 feet out, with nothing threatening in the slot.
He will not go 82 games without a goal and he will score eventually, but will it be enough to even come close to getting value for his $5.75 million dollar hit? Hard to believe it.
Big thanks to SportingCharts.com for the resources they provide on a regular basis
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