|
It Could Be Worse Next Year |
|
|
|
|
|
There isn't much to say about a 3-1 loss to the surging Calgary Flames, the Hawks' 4th defeat in their last 5 games at a time when the team desperately needs points to stay in the playoff race.
As the Flames proved in a 7-1 drubbing of the Hawks in November, their experience, maturity and willingness to pay the price physically far exceeds that of most of the Hawks' roster.
And this is why the Flames will very likely make the playoffs and the Blackhawks won't.
The Blackhawks next three games are road contests against Edmonton (which is coming off a 4-0 defeat of Nashville, and has made the Hawks look bad at times this year), Phoenix and Dallas. The Hawks need 5 points minimum out of a possible 6 to stay in the playoff race.
My money says they'll be lucky to get 3-4 points.
The Blackhawks play well against finesse teams, and that's all well and good if you can sneak into the playoffs and square off against a Detroit or a Vancouver in Round 1—thus having a slight chance to make round 2 before being eliminated by a team that, like (or including) Calgary, is willing to go to war to win.
And here's the really bad news, Hawk fans. As disappointing as this season has been, next season could be just as bad. Or worse.
Hawk fans have grown accustomed over the years to multiple great young players coming on to the roster every training camp, from Duncan Keith and Dustin Byfuglien to Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Andrew Ladd, Kris Versteeg, Troy Brouwer, etc.
That's not the case for the near future. And let's all remember, those teams, from 2005-2008, didn't finish any higher than 10th in the conference.
Anyone expecting Kyle Beach, Jeremy Morin, Dylan Olsen or Igor Makarov to come in next year and turn this team around, better start lighting candles. All are, to varying degrees, good prospects. None have complete NHL games—or enough so to really measurably impact the team's fortunes next year.
Stan Bowman did a nice job of stockpiling picks and prospects this offseason. But the bulk of those assets—the Hayes brothers, Ludvig Rensveldt, Steve Johns, Justin Holl, Kent Simpson, Joakim Nordstrom, Phillippe Paradis and a handful of 2nd and 3rd round future picks (in addition to the aforementioned players at Rockford and Marcus Kruger) are all at least 2-3 years away from being in the NHL.
There is no Brian Campbell or Marian Hossa to be signed in the offseason. Bowman will have his hands full retaining RFA's Brouwer and Brent Seabrook with a budget still perilously close to the NHL salary cap.
So what to do? Well, let's look at what happened first. The top 4 on defense remains intact, as do the top 6-7 forwards.
Essentially, Bowman had to replace 6 "depth" players who made anywhere from $1-3 million a year with 6 players who make less than a million a year.
Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, Brent Sopel, Ben Eager, Kris Versteeg and Adam Burish stepped into a phone booth and Bryan Bickell, Jack Skille, Viktor Stalberg, Jake Dowell, Nick Leddy and John Scott emerged.
Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet were traded out for Marty Turco and Corey Crawford. And here, if you look at both the dollars and the relative production, the Hawks might have come out ahead.
I'm not going to find much fault here. When you look at the dollars, Bowman did the best he could.
Unfortunately, where Bowman and the rest of the front office may have miscalculated was in identifying and protecting a sacrosanct core of 9 players, making in total about 43 million dollars—over 2/3 of the total cap allotment.
Toews, Kane, Keith, Patrick Sharp, Campbell, Hossa, Brent Seabrook, Dave Bolland and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Those guys weren't getting dealt.
And here's the problem, folks. With the cap being what it is (and what it's going to be) and his own RFAs to re-sign, Bowman's options for filling out the remainder of the roster—15 spots at an average of about $1 million a year— next season remain the same as this year: bargain basement, retreads, rookies, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.
Or in other words, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
I have been predicting this all year. And the marketing "gurus" at 1901 W. Madison St. are lucky that efforts like last night's are taking place a time zone away from the U.C.. Expectations were built fairly highly for this season. Get ready guys, the jokes about "One Goal" being the flag on the 18th green are coming.
Not only is the party over, it's presenting an epic hangover.
Sure, over a third of the season remains and the race is very tight in the West. But last week, Bowman seemed to be walking back earlier comments identifying needs at center and defense, in favor of saying the team as composed is coming together at just the right time.
Really?
Where last year's team (and the 2008-09 Hawks) took over games in the third period, this team gives games away when it matters most.
You want to point to injuries? Teams like the Red Wings win in spite of injuries year after year—and especially this year.
But the Red Wings' 22 year-old, over-promoted "stars" don't publicly preach "patience" to a rightfully bothered fan base over halfway into a mediocre defense of the Stanley Cup.
The Wings' stars go out and pay the price on the ice. Period.
I'll say this now, barring an unforeseen miracle, the kind which the throngs have prayed for at the Shrine of Lourdes, this Hawk team will require a significant shake up to be competitive—not just this year, but next year as well.
If the Hawks' paid bloggers and CSN personnel start talking up Morin or Beach or Olsen in the next few weeks and months, caveat emptor. More of the same is on its way for 2011-12.
The highly vaunted, $43 million "core" (probably more like $45 million after Seabrook's new deal), the centerpiece of a multi-million dollar ad campaign, needs to be seriously scrutinized and possibly broken up.
It doesn't mean the team has to get worse either. It should mean the team gets better.
Jonathan Toews is not the problem. He's going to be a great captain in Chicago for the next decade. But he's one guy.
Too many of this team's stars (and supporting players for that matter) are: immature, too focused on being finesse players, and perhaps not focused enough on what it takes to be effective NHL players night in and night out (if you believe some of the many stories that seem to keep cropping up).
What Hawk fans are likely to see between now and the trading deadline is a minor move or two: swapping out a couple of players on the lower portion of the roster for the same from another team. That's it.
If there's a major move, it might happen in the offseason. Or just as (or more) likely, there might be no major move—and let MorinBeachOlsen Fest 2011 begin in earnest.
If Bowman's smart, he's thinking about next year, not so much salvaging this year. It might just be too late. Hawk fans alike, should be thinking about the longer term competitiveness of the team, not a season that unfortunately relied too heavily on a roster that looked better on paper.
I am a fisherman. I know to fish when the fish are biting. And when to fish or cut bait.
In the Spring of 2009, I was one of few voices in Hawk Nation urging the team to get some value in trades for impending UFAs Marty Havlat and Nikolai Khabibulin—I even emailed Dale Tallon via cbh.com to ask him if such a move made sense, especially if the team might not be able to re-sign them (and as it turns out, they didn't). I received an email back from a Hawk employee, who is a good guy and a friend of mine, asking me if I was nuts: "trading away your best player going in to the playoffs?"
Hmm. Hindsight, as always, is 20/20.
What this means is: take the blinders off. The moves necessary to improve next year could be there to be made between now and the deadline this year—when every team is dealing and many teams are desperate. And the Hawks don't look to be going very far in the playoffs regardless, even if they do luck out and squeak in.
If the Hawks stand pat it can only mean they want to believe (or want you to believe) the next wave of players from Rockford are much better than their current stats and scouting reports indicate. Or that Skille is going to magically become another Cam Neely, much less a Troy Brouwer.
But if the Hawks do make a larger deal or two, what could that mean?
Maybe the Hawks lose some cap commitment for 2011-12 and gain the room to bring in a $3-4 million free agent who fits their needs better, while retaining Brouwer and Seabrook. Maybe they land a prospect who truly is a season away from being an effective NHL player, like Versteeg or Ben Eager were when they were dealt for. Maybe they add a veteran or two who won't raise any eyebrows publicly but could raise the maturity level and commitment in the dressing room and on the ice.
And maybe Bowman steps out of his reputation as a bean counter who did an adequate job of auctioning off talent in the offseason, and makes a mark for himself as a truly shrewd GM.
Thanks for reading,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»