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Here’s the thing about conventional wisdom. It’s so often based on assumptions, presumptions and group-think.

So I’m going to take a myth/reality approach to this question of where Ryan Suter might be headed. The “experts” have Suter headed to Detroit, Minnesota (along with Zach Parise!), possibly Philadelphia or staying in Nashville.

My sources—including one close to the Suter Family—tell me that aside from his staying in Nashville, Chicago is a very real possibility for a number of very compelling reasons.

But my sources also tell me that nothing is settled right now. Like any top player going into unrestricted free agency, Suter is going to weigh a variety of factors and situations. Thus, I won’t photoshop Suter’s head on an Indianhead sweater right now—just as all those doing so with the Winged Wheel are maybe way out ahead of themselves. Or just wrong.

Let’s first look at who can and should pursue Suter. He’s a top defenseman with his best years ahead of him. So really, there are 30 teams who should want to add that to their team. But here’s where we start to run into flawed assumptions.

1) “Only a few teams can afford him.”

A lot of teams will be able to afford a nice offer to Suter due to expiring contracts, including Chicago. If a team moves some dollars in trade before the draft, all the more. His deal is likely going to be in the $6-$7 million a year range. A lot of teams will be able to afford him.

2) “Suter will go to Team X, because he will be a number 1 defenseman there.”

Is it more important to Suter to be the clear #1 defenseman on an average to good defense, or one of 2-3 “#1’s” on a great defense? I will tell you now, if Suter is smart and not an egomaniac, as long as he gets the money he wants, he chooses the latter over the former. Because he plays with better players, extends his own career due to better minutes and less pressure, and has a better chance of going deep in the playoffs every year.

So all those ready to pencil Suter in on this team or that, because they have (or might have) a vacancy at #1, hold on. Just because another team (like Chicago) has a clear #1 and #2 (right now), doesn’t preclude Suter from going there—in fact, it might actually make that situation more desirable.

3) “Suter will replace Nik Lidstrom in Detroit.”

This is an idea that’s gained a lot of traction among armchair GMs across the blogosphere. But it really doesn’t make a ton of actual sense.

The one advantage Detroit might have is—especially if Lidstrom retires— they will have a lot of money to throw at him. But they also really can’t afford to throw $8 or $9 million a year at Suter.

But by the end of Suter’s contract, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen and Henrik Zetterberg will all be at least 37-38 years old. One, two or all three of them might likely need to be “replaced” somehow by that time.

And even if they are still playing by then, how good will they, and therefore Detroit, still be?

So there are two issues: for Detroit, the wisdom of overspending for 4-6 years to lure Suter this summer, and for Suter, how competitive Detroit can be 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now.

But why Chicago? Well, here’s why:

1) I’m told—and others have echoed this as well— that geography, particularly proximity to Suter’s family in Madison, WI will play into his decision. If it does, then that supports bids by Minnesota and Chicago, both driveable distances from Madison. And no NHL arena is closer to Mad-Town than the United Center.

2) Suter’s entire family and Suter himself grew up as fans of . . . the Chicago Blackhawks. In fact, while Suter was a young boy, his uncle Gary played for a number of strong Blackhawk teams, and the family maintains positive ties with the organization.

3) A number of sources are saying Suter is number one on the Blackhawks’ list this summer. And the team is also in need of a big splash. When they are, they are usually willing to overspend to get their guy. Point being, the Blackhawks will likely not be outspent. Need proof? See: Campbell, B., summer 2008. And if it comes down to Minnesota and Chicago, the Hawks will actually have more money available through existing cap room and expiring contracts.

4) Finally, the agent always has a big say. And Chicago is the largest of all the markets we’ve discussed, with—unlike Detroit—a young, talented core in place and big time, national endorsement opportunities.

Further, Suter’s agent, Neil Sheehy, has one client already with the Blackhawks. And that player is . . . Nick Leddy, a favorite of GM Stan Bowman, and a player viewed by many as a young Phil Housley or Brian Campbell. Coincidentally, Leddy might well be a regular partner for Suter. The notion of career growth synergies for both players has to have crossed Sheehy’s mind.

So while I believe Suter will weigh his options, including the fact that a good friend of his plays for Minnesota and other interesting lures elsewhere, I also think once he does—and the Blackhawks make the expected strong move to sign him—he might every well end up a Blackhawk.

Conventional wisdom or no.


Thanks for reading,


JJ

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