The other day the Montreal Canadiens signed Alexander Semin to an insanely low 1.1M dollar deal for 1 year. The former Hurricane, former Capital winger has fallen from grace and gained a reputation for being a heartless player. I tend to dismiss tags like “heartless” unless I’ve seen it first hand and frankly I’d say 90% of the time people try to say “Russian” but “Heartless is what comes out of their mouths. In any event, this isn’t about Semin, per se, but about players like him. Because, as far as I’m concerned, the Oilers after this season should be filling out roster spots with people just like him.
You see, Semin represents a very low-risk high-reward signing of a player with obvious talents. Semin is a 31 year old who in his prime scored 40 goals and totaled 84 points in 73 games with the Caps. He was a point per game player as recently as the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season in which he had 44 points in 44 games. However, last year the bottom dropped out and he shot less frequently than he had previously and his shooting percentage bottomed out to the lowest it has ever been in the NHL.
The beginning of downward trend that we can generally count on for players in their 30’s or a 1 year blip? I have no idea but that’s the gamble (if you can even call it that) that the Canadiens are taking. But here’s Semin’s last 5 seasons in terms of 5v5 Shots per 60.
2010-2011 9.71 S/60
2011-2012 8.67 S/60
2012-2013 9.20 S/60
2013-2014 9.07 S/60
2014-2015 6.04 S/60
He is very consistent in his shot rate until last season when they drop by more than 30%. He also went from averaging about 3:30 per game on the Power Play for all of his years in Carolina to just 1:30 per game last season. His Even Strength TOI also dropped last year by about 1:30 per game. Pretty much everything conspired together to make him look worse than he ever has.
Edmonton moving forward will need at least one or two Alex Semins every year if they want to keep the team competitive while keeping as much of the core as possible. There are going to be Salary Cap constraints moving forward. With McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, and Reinhart all slated to be a part of the future that already has RNH, Eberle, and Hall on matching 6M dollar deals money will get tight. McDavid alone could be 8-9M dollars on his next deal if things go the way we expect them to and he gives the Oilers a discount.
I foresee Teddy Purcell’s roster spot to be a rotation of cheap veterans trying to re-establish themselves in the NHL on cheap 1 year deals. Last year the Oilers paid Purcell 4.5M to tenuously hold down a top 6 role. He held on but by the end of the year Yakupov was clearly more dynamic offensively and looking closer to the player they thought they drafted. This year Purcell might not make it out of camp on the top two lines despite his price tag. The club will ride the year out, maybe find a home for him at the deadline if their fortunes don’t improve. After that it should be rookies or cheap vets.
The team will need to identify potential value contracts on players who might have a reputation or some other black mark on their record. Naturally the Oilers will want marquee players to come to the team but I think the focus there will be adding to the defense. The forwards surrounding the core will have to be inexpensive.
As the 2015-2016 season goes on we should keep an eye out for underperformers or aging players who might be able to succeed if given chances on other rosters. We should do this because there’s every chance that these players might make sense occupying spots on the Oilers.
The team doesn’t need veterans to hold the wheel while the kids learn their way anymore. The first three 1st Overall picks are all off their ELCs. Hall is going start his 6th season this fall. The kids are in control and veterans are going to need them more than the other way around in a year’s time.
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