Dependent upon a team's needs, there's quite the array of players to choose from in the next tier of prospects after Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are taken with the first two picks in the 2015 NHL Draft. "When we sat down, we started our list at No. 3," said Dan Marr director of NHL Central Scouting on WGR's Howard Simon Show earlier this month. "And from 3-10," he continued, "you're getting some pretty special players."
The general consensus is that atop Marr's group of "pretty special players" are (in no particular order) Noah Hanifin, Dylan Strome and Mitch Marner who are almost certain to be taken with the 3rd through 5th-overall picks. Although Marr groups them with the others, those three constitute a valuable sub-tier of highly-skilled, very talented players who could conceivably hit the NHL as teenagers. They're building blocks that the Arizona Coyotes, Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes will likely draft and keep.
After the projected top-5 in the draft, the next five invariably include powerful winger Lawson Crouse, big, two-way winger Mikko Rantanen, centers Pavel Zacha and Matthew Barzal and defenseman Ivan Provorov. If you wanted to stretch Marr's group to 11, you could also add in Michigan Wolverine defenseman Zach Werenski who's weaving in and out of the top-10.
Some, like Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com/sabres.com and Phil Myre, of International Scouting Services, have even stretched this group down to the 13th/14th slot. But if you're a team looking to trade up to fill a need, and this may be the year to do so, it's probably in your best interest to try and get into the top-10.
We know Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray wants to move up in the draft with the team's second first-rounder. How high up he wants to go and how much it will cost are the things we don't know. Nor do we know if there's a even dance partner for him. Keep in mind that he tried getting back into the first round last year but was unable to do so. He said he offered all three second-rounders the Sabres had, but found no takers.
Perhaps having the 21st-overall this year in combination with the 31st and/or the 51st will be enough to get him to where he wants to go. Baker pointed out that back in 2012 former GM Darcy Regier was able to get the 14th-overall selection (Zemgus Girgensons) for the 21st and 42nd picks at the draft. Moving from No.21 up to the top-10 or higher is a much bigger jump and, obviously, will require more assets, possibly involving a prospect. That being said, Murray does have the ammunition and he's also shown a willingness to make a splash.
What might pique his interest in that range?
We know he likes "heavies." As director of player personnel for the Anaheim Ducks from 2002-05 they selected Ryan Getzlaf (19th) and Corey Perry (28th) in 2003 and Bobby Ryan (2nd) in 2005. All of them over 6'2" 200 lbs. And he carried that over to Ottawa as the Senators' AGM when his first selection was 6'2" 200 lb. center Jim O'Brien in 2007.
Baker has mentioned that his choice in a trade-up scenario would be to land LW/C Paval Zacha, who he calls "a playmaking power forward with a heavy shot [who] has the strength and game-breaking bursts of speed to make an immediate NHL impact." Baker has had somewhat of an affinity for big, skilled powerforwards like Zacha and it would seem as if he has a compadre in Murray.
Yet, as a life-long scout, Murray has been, and remains, adamant about picking the best player available. In 2008 he was responsible for the Sens plucking Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson with the 15th-overall pick while passing on 6'5" 220 lb. forward Joel Colborne (BOS.)
We also know that he's doesn't go all Don Cherry "Canadian-centric" and isn't adverse to drafting Swedes, Czech's or American's with a first round pick either. Within that context, however, Murray does seem to have an aversion to Russians as he's only drafted one--Ruslan Bashkirov, 2007, 60th-overall--during his time in Anaheim and in Ottawa.
It was something Baker pointed out on WGR's Mike Schopp and the Bulldog Show earlier this week when he said, "Murray doesn't particularly have a history, or any kind of track record, of developing Russian hockey players. I'm not saying he's trying to eradicate these [Russians] all together, but there is this thought in NHL circles that you either have one [Russian] or none on your team."
When it comes to Murray drafting from the Motherland, the determining factor, more than anything else, probably had more to do with how the Russian prospects graded out amongst their peers. Very few were taken in and around where Murray was picking in the drafts before last year so Ruskiephobia probably never fully entered into the equation. Adding to that, Murray's probably a little miffed seeing Vladmir Taresenko reaching superstar-status after being drafted by the St. Louis Blues with Ottawa's first rounder in 2010.
If it's more of a grading thing than anything else, that's a good thing. From a talent perspective there a few Russian prospects sure to pique one's interest in the first and early second rounds of the draft this year. One particularly interesting prospect out of Russia via the WHL is Provorov, a 6'0" 201 lb. defenseman who skated for the Brandon Wheat Kings last season.
Provorov is a gifted skater who "proved to be a do-it-all force" in his first season with Brandon, according to Baker. He was the highest scoring rookie in the WHL with 61 points (15+46) in 60 games during the regular season and had another 13 points (2+11) in 19 playoff games. "The offensive output, which included five three-point games," wrote Baker for sabres.com, "was the result of great confidence and vision with the puck."
That confidence and vision, as well as a deceptive shot, netted him eight powerplay goals on the second best powerplay in the WHL.
Provorov is also proficient on the back-end as well. Baker wrote that he's an "intense defensive competitor [who's] not afraid to sacrifice his body for team [and is] calm in the face of pressure. He smartly opts to go high off the glass as opposed to forcing anything and can either skate it out of his zone and take it deep or leg it out trouble with a few strides and deliver a sharp outlet pass to a streaking winger."
Eliteprospects.com said of Provorov, "[He's] an offensively gifted defenceman who can direct the game's pace when the puck is on his stick, creates many chances on the power play and can even create offense during the penalty kill. All-in-all, a complete defenceman who knows how goals are scored and executes accordingly."
Some mocks have Provorov going as high as No.4 to Toronto, yet the consensus is that he'll probably land in the No. 7-9 range. The Philadelphia Flyers have the seventh-overall pick and a strong group of prospects on defense, but Provorov might be too good to pass up as the best player available. If Philly passes one would be hard pressed to see him drop past No. 8 as the Columbus Blue Jackets look to be going defense with either Provorov or Zach Werenski.
As much as one like's what Zacha brings to the table, it's hard not to be enamored by a good-sized offensive puck-mover like Provorov who's on ice-presence, skill and hockey smarts make him a force on the ice from the back-end. With the probable pick of Jack Eichel at No. 2 the Sabres will have a bonafide No. 1 center (along with two other top-six centers) and already have a top-line left wing in Evander Kane so Zacha would add more depth. Yet, as good as a prospect Zacha is, what Buffalo doesn't have right now is an offensive defenseman with top-notch, NHL-level skills.
If you're gonna send at least two picks, probably three and possibly even more, to move up some 15 spots, all things equal between the two prospects, it might make more sense for Buffalo to do so for a game-breaking defenseman like Provorov, especially when there's nothing else like him in the system.
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