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On the Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel race, thoughts on two former Sabres, plus |
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After gaining respectability via a 10-3-0 stretch and flirting with the mid-20's in the NHL's overall standings, the Buffalo Sabres are back down where many expected them--bottom-three in the league.
There's a large clump of teams just above the Sabres and two teams who seem hell-bent on making the race for Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel a two-horse race. The Edmonton Oilers have been pathetic as of late and have plummeted to the bottom of the standings. Since their last back-to-back wins in early November the Oilers have compiled a 2-15-5 record including a winless stretch of 11 games.
After last night's 3-2 SO win over visiting Los Angeles, the Oilers' 23 points are one less than the Carolina Hurricanes.
The 'Canes have taken a tumble this past month going 3-10-1. They're ranked 29th in the league in goals-for with 1.97 goals/game and are one of only two teams under 2.00 g/gm (Buffalo, 1.86.) With 23 and 24 points, respectively, the Oilers and 'Canes are well below the Sabres' 31 points and a group of five teams slightly above Buffalo in the standings.
The "prize" for finishing last this season will be the opportunity to draft either McDavid or Eichel and both will be playing for their countries this afternoon (4pm) at the IIHF World Junior Tournament in Montreal. Even though neither are in the top-10 in tournament scoring, the hype-machine has been in overdrive up north as the two "franchise" players square off. McDavid has three points (1+2) while Eichel has two (1+1.)
Regardless, those two players are the types of players that you can build a Stanley Cup team around and are desirable to the point where accusations of tanking to get either of them have been thrown out there since the Buffalo Sabres started the season 3-14-1. And to be honest, unless you're already a playoff/Stanley Cup contender, you'd be crazy not to think of getting the best possible odds at either one.
The NHL lowered the odds of winning the lottery for the four worst teams in the league. Last place now has a 20% chance (down from 25%,) second last has a 13.5% (18.8,) 28th place an 11.5% chance (14.2) and the 27th place team a 9.5% chance (10.7%.) Yet, with the way the draft is structured for one final year, whomever wins the lottery moves to the top of the draft, while the last place team only drops one spot to the 2nd overall pick. With that in mind the last place team is assured of landing a one of those franchise players.
From a Sabres' standpoint, there's not a person in the organization or a fan anywhere who wouldn't want McDavid or Eichel, myself included. But should the Sabres end up with the third or fourth pick in the draft, it won't be anything to sneeze at.
Although the team is loaded with defensive prospects, they still lack a dynamic defenseman with speed, swagger and finish. Team USA's Noah Hanifin, the consensus third-overall pick is that kind of player would be available. Most feel that Hanifin would be in the top-two conversation were it not for McDavid and Eichel.
McDavid's Erie Otters teammate, Dylan Strome, is presently tied for the scoring lead in the OHL with 66 points (23+43) in 35 games. Though some may think that Strome's success is a product of playing with McDavid, and to an extent it's true, in 17 games since McDavid went down to injury Strome has 25 points (10+15.)
NHL's Dan Marr compares the 6'3" 187 lb. Strome to Keith Primeau and says that he's cut from the same cloth as Eichel. "[He's] really strong on his feet, protects the puck from any checking pressure and can circle it out from down low," wrote Marr in a November 14 nhl.com piece. "Strome and Eichel are probably the two best puck-protection players in this draft class."
So all's not lost if the Sabres' are outside the McEichel range, especially with the quality and depth of their prospect pool right now. But with a little over half the season left to go, it behooves any team clearly outside the playoffs to get the best possible odds at McDavid and Eichel. Including Buffalo.
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The Edmonton Oilers are at the bottom of the league. But have they bottomed out?
Just over two weeks ago while in the midst of a horrendous stretch, the Oilers fired coach Dallas Eakins. He was replaced in the interim by GM Craig McTavish who was prepping soon to be interim coach, Todd Nelson.
Last night Nelson was on his own and the Oilers pulled out a 3-2 SO win vs. the Los Angeles Kings. In the lineup for Edmonton last night were two recent acquisitions--waiver pickup Matt Fraser and former Sabre, Derek Roy who they got in a trade from Nashville for Mark Arcobello.
Roy, a 2001, 2nd round pick (32nd overall) spent eight seasons in Buffalo before being traded to Dallas in 2012. The ensuing two years saw Roy go to Vancouver, St. Louis, Nashville and now Edmonton. Where once he was a feisty top-six center with skills to score and set up, he just hasn't gotten it done.
Last night Roy had an immediate impact as he set up linemate Matt Hendricks for the first goal of the game. Although Roy failed to hit the scoresheet again, including being stopped in the shootout, he could end up being a good find for the Oilers.
Roy's last years in Buffalo were punctuated by what seemed like more of a laissez faire attitude than anything else. He, like some of his teammates, seemed way too comfortable under GM Darcy Regier and head coach Lindy Ruff and that may have carried over to his next four teams. But with Edmonton he has a chance to resurrect his career and earn himself another contract.
One thing to keep in mind for Roy is that when he wants to play the role of set-up man, he's shown in the past that he's really good at it. Two cases in point are Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford. It could be argued that he was instrumental in both of those players posting career numbers in a contract year.
Back in 2007, Vanek had a career high in goals (43) and points (84) on line with Roy and that summer was rewarded with a 7yr./$51M offer sheet from Edmonton which the Sabres matched.
And in 2011, Stafford finished had a career year in goals (31) and points (52) in only 62 games on a line with Roy. That prolific season landed him a 4yr./$16M contract.
Coincidence?
Maybe, but I'll be keeping an eye on Roy's linemates. None are in a contract year, but with Roy fighting for his own contract, they may be the recipients of a renewed interest in his hockey career.
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It was good to see former Sabres' Paul Gaustad in a post-game interview on the NHL network. His Nashville Predators had just finished toppling division rival St. Louis. "Goose" was credited with a secondary assist on Shea Weber's game-winning short-handed goal.
Much derision was thrown Nashville's way after Preds GM David Poile sent a first round pick to Buffalo for Gaustad back in 2012. That pick, btw, ended up being Zemgus Girgensons after Regier traded up 21st to 14th overall.
Nashville presently sits second in the division and third in the conference. The Preds have always had stout goaltending coupled with a strong defense, but this season they're putting the puck in the net with more frequency. Should they continue to play the way they are now, they'll be heading into the post season as a possible Cup-contender.
Even though he was never a tough guy, especially for his size, there was an honesty about Goose that only former Sabres forward Jason Pominville had in his tenure in Buffalo. The former 7th round pick (2000) has always been limited by his lack of skill, yet he managed to make the best of what the Good Lord gave him.
As a bottom-six player, defense has always been his role and as he moved through his career, he worked extra hard on the dot. His 57.9% win percentage is 5th in the league this year for players with 300 or more faceoffs taken. He, as well as the Nashville organization, are getting the most out of what he has to give.
Goose is one of those former players you can't hate on, so best wishes to him.
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Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the excellent play of top Sabres prospect, Sam Reinhart at the World Juniors. The 2014 2nd-overall pick was named player of the game for Team Canada in their 4-1 victory over Finland on Monday as he scored the first two goals for Canada. Reinhart now five points (2+3) in three games.
A disappointed Reinhart left the Sabres en route to Kootenay after a less than stellar nine-game stint in which he was held without a goal while garnering only one assist. That performance was on the heels of a so-so Traverse City Tournament and meh preseason.
Kris Baker of sabresprospects.com has been following "The Future of the Blue and Gold" for years and he really loves what Reinhart brings to the table. Baker always says that when it comes to prospects, it's best to look two or three years down the road. Although I'm not completely sold on Sam yet, it's best to defer to someone who has a much deeper knowledge through watching prospects much more closely.
Reinhart has incredible hockey smarts and deft passing skills, but he has a smaller frame which caused him trouble in Buffalo and his slightly above average skating ability didn't allow him to get out of that trouble in the NHL. He's been pegged as a player that you need to watch for a few games to truly appreciate his ability and it would seem as if he'll be the type of player who will just age gradually as more experience comes his way.
In many instances, a strong World Junior Tournament can act as a springboard to professional success and I hope that's the case here.
The Buffalo Sabres have had three prospects in the last two years make the All-Tournament team and all were defensemen--Jake McCabe (2013,) Rasmus Ristolainen and Nikita Zadorov (2014.) Ristolainen was named best defenseman on the heels of his golden goal in OT for Team Finland.
Both Ristolainen and Zadorov are in Buffalo playing top-four minutes while McCabe is in his first full season in Rochester logging top-four minutes as well.
Would be nice if Reinhart, a forward, can continue the Sabres' prospects, All-Tourney streak.
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