It’s a good news / bad news kind of day in Pred Nation… the good news is that the NHL Awards have been handed out and Predators General Manager David Poile was named GM of the year. A well- deserved honor for the longtime Predators GM who has had quite the eventful year since last time these awards took place. Earth shattering trades, an up and down regular season and a magical run to get two wins from a Stanley Cup… yeah, that qualifies as eventful. The other good news is that the NHL Expansion Draft is in the books so we can finally stop speculating about who each team is going to lose in the draft.
The bad news is that the Nashville Predators lost James Neal in the process of that expansion draft. A tough loss for the Preds. A sniper who has scored at least 20 goals in each of his first nine years in the NHL will be difficult to replace. Difficult… but not impossible.
You could tell that this was a very tough call for the recently named GM of the Year… some very interesting perspective from pundits that haven’t followed this team very closely seem to be having a hard time processing why you would expose James Neal instead of Calle Jarnkrok. Hell… looking at the Panic Room that social media turned into over the last few days, there are quite a few Predators fans that are having that same trouble. You also could tell that David Poile was trying his best to make a deal with Vegas to keep them away from Neal… but looking at some of the prices??? I’m glad that Poile didn’t mortgage the future for one season.
I can’t see how the GM could’ve played this any differently, especially given the facts around the situation. The team couldn’t go the seven forward, three defenseman route… losing one of the top four defense core just simply wasn’t an option, and given Vegas’ thirst for defensemen in the draft, the exposed defenseman would have been lost. So only being able to protect four forwards hurt and Poile decided to keep the versatile center in Jarnkrok, who is signed for the next five seasons at a bargain $2 million per. The other benefit is that the Predators also freed up over $5 million in cap space, giving them about 23.5 million for signing their RFA’s and giving them some extra space for a potential splash in the UFA pool.
So, how do you replace James Neal… filling that hole of the Predators roster requires the replacement of 23 goals and 18 assists and figuring out a way to keep the edge that Neal skated on… and occasionally over. Let’s start with the edge… that is already on the team with players like Cody McCloud and Austin Watson, I consider that already there.
I have flipped the question from how does you replace Neal to how do you replace his production? Neal is a sniper, no question about that, you don’t replace that talent easily… but you can replace the production. Let’s look at a couple of options…
UFA – There are four players that currently are in UFA status at the end of this season that scored more than 23 goals last season and only two of them are under 34 years old… Patrick Eaves and TJ Oshie. Both players are coming off career years as Oshie potted 33 goals for the Capitals last season and Eaves depositing 32 between Dallas and Anaheim. Eaves was injured for most of the playoffs and Oshie had a solid playoff season with 12 points in 13 games. Both could be solid replacements… the other two players in this category are Justin Williams (24g 24a last season) and Patrick Marleau (26g 19a)… Williams hasn’t shown the speed to play for this team, but Marleau has always been a fascinating idea for Nashville. At 37 years old, you do wonder when he is going to lose a step, but it hasn’t happened yet. I see three viable options here, Oshie, Eaves and a flyer on Marleau.
Trade - I expect the next few days to be just a little crazy, so I wouldn’t rule out the potential for a trade to replace Neal… but who? The possibilities are almost endless… all of them will come at a cost. Not ruling this out… but the deal will have to be right for Poile to pull the trigger.
Internal - If you assume growth in some of the younger players (Kevin Fiala, Pontus Aberg) and assume a return to just average production from both Colin Wilson and Criag Smith, replacing Neal’s goal production may not be that difficult. If Wilson and Smith return to their average goal production, you have replaced nine of those 23 goals. Assume Aberg, in a full time role gets a very reasonable ten goals… Fiala would only have to improve by five from last season’s eleven and those 23 goals are replaced. That doesn’t count any improved production from players like Subban or Sissons or Watson or any potential production from prospects in Milwaukee.
I hate losing a sniper like Neal, but when you take the long view, it probably had to happen. The Predators staff now heads to Chicago for the entry draft that starts tomorrow night.
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Last night’s SlapShot Radio
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