What if I told you the NHL and the NHLPA won't have a new CBA in place by September 15th, but will have one as soon as October 1st? And then what if I told you the deal will be sorted soon enough that the NHL will play a full 82 game season in 2012/2013? Sounds impossible? I don't think so.

Details of today's offer from the NHL to the NHLPA are leaking out this evening, and all signs point to a positive and quick solution between the two sides.

Now before I get into why I'm thinking this way, I'll clarify something: Yep, the league's most-recent proposal sets the cap for 2012/13 at $58M, 2013/14 at $60M, 2014/15 at $62M, 2015/16 at $64.2M, 2016/17 at $67.6M, and 2017/18 at $71.1M. That's a huge drop from the current system that sees players receiving 57.1% of total league revenues (if the CBA stayed the same, the cap limit for 2012/2013 would be $70.2mil, not $58mil). There is no way in the world the NHLPA is going to accept this deal, and the NHL knows it.

I suspect the NHLPA's reaction tomorrow will be disappointed, hostile, and frustrated. They will say the NHL's deal was terrible and the PA has absolutely no interest in accepting it.

Relax folks. These are professionals at work here. Lawyers acting like lawyers. The league demonstrated today a willingness to move from their initial offer. The players will say how awful the new deal is, and then they'll keep negotiating. They'll counter offer. This process will continue until both sides find a middle ground. It's all good.

Crystal ball time...what do I predict will happen now?

First thing of note is that the NHL's new offer did not (from the sounds of it) include any call for a paycut to players. That detail makes absolutely no sense considering 16 of the NHL's 30 teams would already be spending over the cap with their current contracts in a $58mil cap world. Obviously there is more to this. So what is it?

The new NHL offer would include a clause allowing NHL teams before the season to buyout several contracts at full value without having the buyouts count against the cap. Using the Edmonton Oilers as an example, they would be able to shed Shawn Horcoff ($5.5mil), Eric Belanger ($1.75mil), Andy Sutton ($1.75mil) and Nikolai Khabibulin ($3.75) off the cap. Further to this, perhaps teams would be also allowed to rid themselves of previous buyout amounts (Oilers are still on the hook in 2012/2013 for Sheldon Souray's buyout at $1.5mil). In total, the cap savings for the Oilers would be $14.25mil. The cap number for the Oilers would be at $48.683mil for 2012/2013, leaving the team with $9mil+ of space.

It wouldn't be all bad news for the players being bought-out, either. Aside from being paid 100% of what they are owed on their contracts, they'd also be free to sign with anyone. What you'd see is July 1st all over again...the Oilers would want to fill at least two of the roster spots left vacant by the buyouts, and they'd have $9mil space to work with. Other teams would be in a similar situation. It's all good.

What I see happening is a continued negotiation process whereas the cap for 2012/2013 eventually is set to around $64mil. I believe the CBA will be a five or six year deal. The amount of expenditure growth in between years will be higher than the $2mil per as proposed in the current NHL deal. If league revenue increases at 7.1%, is fairer to suggest cap growth will be closer to $3mil - $4mil per season for the next five to six seasons. Make 2012/2013 $64mil, 2013/2014 $67mil, 2014/2015 $70mil, and so on.

Of course, if the cap is reduced to $64mil by the end of this instead of the $58mil proposed today, the number of contracts teams could shed thru an "Amnesty" clause might be capped. Perhaps instead of dumping four players as I suggested, teams would be allowed to buyout two. So long Shawn Horcoff. See you later, Nikolai Khabibulin.

The NHLPA might be able to avoid players taking pay cuts, which, of course, is their big issue. There are numerous other parts of the CBA that would need to be negotiated (contract length, revenue sharing, entry-level deal length and rules around free agency), but both sides will find a middle ground on those subjects. The big issue is money, and it appears the league is willing to negotiate with respect to it.

Be happy, friends. Things are looking up, and both sides are getting down to it. A solution is not that far away.

Join the Discussion: » 52 Comments » Post New Comment

» Goodbye and Good Luck

» Ranking Top 5 Roster Groups - Blog #1

» Mods and Rockers

» The Reverse Psychology Blog

» The 10 Least Interesting Teams in the NHL