The Pittsburgh Penguins need a better third line center or at the very least need to get the same quality player for cheaper.
The Brandon Sutter experiment hasn’t worked. Many are tricked by the goals he scores because most of them are aesthetically pleasing, but when he isn’t scoring goals he isn’t doing anything productive for the most part. Scoring 21 goals is nice on the surface, but it isn’t enough to offset all the other below average things he does.
He isn’t strong along the wall in puck battles, he doesn’t create time and space for others or himself, and despite being known for killing penalties he really isn’t all that great at that either. Since he joined the Penguins his 4v5 Fenwick Against per 60 is 75.42. That ranks 110 out of the 139 players who played at least 200 minutes shorthanded during that sample size. If that is one of his supposed strengths then that doesn’t bode well for getting value at 3.3M.
He isn’t a shutdown third line center defensively and he doesn’t create enough offense to justify being a low end second line center.
One of the more frequent questions I receive on Twitter is “How do you replace him then?”
The short answer is it isn’t all that difficult to replace a fourth line level player at even-strength.
So we can stop pretending like this will be a tough task for Jim Rutherford. The only thing holding up Pittsburgh from finding an improvement for the third line center position is if the team chooses not to move on from Brandon Sutter.
There are a few reasons why now is the time to move on from Sutter other than the fact you should always be looking to upgrade your team.
His perceived value is higher than his actual value. There are surely teams out there that will focus on the 21 goals and gloss over the rest. He’s a Sutter and the NHL is a league that loves familiarity, just look at the hiring practices for general managers and head coaches. Pittsburgh can use this to their advantage.
Sutter will be entering the final year of his two year extension. He will want a raise and Pittsburgh will not be giving it to him. They might as well cash out with an asset that has some market value while they can.
Today I am going to throw out some UFA options could be available if their current teams don’t re-sign them. I will not be endorsing all of these options as something the Penguins should do. The main point of this exercise is to show what poor value Pittsburgh gets from their current third line center and the fact available replacements do exist.
I am going to use HERO charts because they have a lot of useful information in an easy to digest format. All of these options would give Pittsburgh better value at 3.3M than Brandon Sutter. Don’t confuse that as me saying it is what these players will make or should make. It means relative to Brandon Sutter making 3.3M they wouldn’t be worse value at the same price point. The goal for Pittsburgh is to get the same production for cheaper or pay a similar price for more production.
Four of these options I believe will come in lower than 3.3M and the other option I believe will come in higher.
Eric Fehr
All metrics are better than Sutter. Fehr has carried a cap hit of 1.5M the past two seasons. He is due for a raise. Will it be more than 3.3M? It could be in that neighborhood, perhaps a little lower. That is better value than Sutter and Fehr is probably the most realistic option to explore among UFA possibilities.
Mike Santorelli
Many people’s perception is probably that Mike Santorelli doesn’t deserve to be in the same conversation as Brandon Sutter, but his numbers say otherwise. Brandon Sutter has slightly higher Goals per 60 and shots per 60 at even-strength (not by much) but everything else is better on Santorelli’s end. You won’t spend 3.3M but you’ll get similar or better quality of play at the position. Santorelli isn’t a high end addition, but he certainly isn’t a downgrade on Sutter, thus making him an option.
Matt Cullen
I’ll say it before you do, he’s 38 years old! Understood. This would be a situation where you give a one year deal to provide a stop gap while you search for a more long term option. He had a Score-Adjusted Fenwick of 54.3% last year which is great regardless of age. His dCorsi the past few years has also been positive.
Mark Letestu
I do not believe that the Penguins should pursue Letestu. The only reason I put him on here is to show that he is another player who is on Sutter’s level, yet comes in much cheaper. This illustrates again that replacing Sutter’s production isn’t some impossible task.
Carl Soderberg
Soderberg is the player that I think will come in over Brandon Sutter’s current 3.3M cap hit. He is great on the shot suppression front and his ability to generate offense at even-strength is best among the four options presented today. He is clearly the best UFA option among third line center options.
One thing to keep in mind about Soderberg is that he does not take on the shutdown defensive roles for Boston. That responsibility belongs to perennial Selke Trophy candidate Patrice Bergeron.
Soderberg in that 3.6-3.8M range is definitely a better value than Sutter. However, he will be 30 next year and will probably be looking for a contract that has some term on it. There is no doubt Soderberg would be an upgrade on Sutter but his contract dynamic might keep him from being a realistic option.
Packaging Sutter with a player like Scott Harrington or Brian Dumoulin may be one of the few avenues Pittsburgh has to improve the roster via trade.
One thing is for sure. We can all stop pretending like Brandon Sutter isn’t a replaceable commodity. I have presented five UFA options that are at worst a lateral move and four of them will come at a lower price point.
Unrestricted free agency is only one way to acquire a third line center. There is also the option of trading for one, but that will be a blog for another day.
Thanks for reading!
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