The first three months of the season have been a tale of frustration and angst for the Lightning. Wounded after last season’s epic flameout in the first round of the playoffs, the Bolts pledged to play a different, more versatile brand of hockey this year. It was ugly in the early going, as a loss to the Islanders on November 1st saw the Bolts drop to 6-5-2. It appeared that the Lightning’s dedication to the dump-and-chase was stunting their rush, and the stars weren’t producing at their usual pace. The underlying metrics were middle-of-the-pack.

There has been a change, which is that now Tampa Bay is dominating by the numbers. In December, the Lightning are top three in the NHL in expected goals for and expected goals against per 60 minutes. They are second in high-danger chances accrued per hour. Their top-six forwards are creating offense, and the desire to change the Bolts’ style of play to one that is less reckless has been successful from a process standpoint.

Nevertheless, the Lightning won only six of 11 games in December, and they picked up only one overtime loss. Despite controlling most games, they haven’t managed any separation from the clump of teams vying for an Atlantic Division playoff spot. On Saturday, the Lightning play a contest against the Canadiens, a team that is two points ahead of Tampa Bay in the standings although Tampa Bay has two games in hand. With 2020 on the cusp, the Lightning need to string together a couple of win streaks to secure a playoff spot.

Despite a roster that lacks big names – former Bolts No. 3 overall pick Jonathan Drouin is on injured reserve – Montreal should not be taken lightly. The numbers for the Bolts and Habs are remarkably similar this season. At 5v5, the Canadiens are third in the NHL in expected goals for per 60 minutes, barely above the Lightning who sit in fifth. Montreal is sixth in expected goals against per 60 minutes, and the Lightning are right behind them in seventh. Yet in high-danger chances, it is the Bolts who have the slight edge, ranking third in high-danger chances for per hour and seventh in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. In those respective categories, Montreal ranks fourth and tenth. All of this is to say that while the Lightning seem to have the skill advantage, the Canadiens are playing smart, effective hockey under Claude Julien. Montreal has suffered a spate of injuries, but the team has stayed afloat.

It sounds like Tyler Johnson is set to return tomorrow night, but the Lightning would be wise to keep him on the third line. Jon Cooper should be loath to split up his two best forward lines. When Steven Stamkos plays with Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn, they have an expected goals rate of 55.29, posting four goals while surrendering zero. In the month of December, the Nikita Kucherov-Brayden Point-Ondrej Palat trio at 5v5 has an outrageous expected goals rate of 71.60 and has created 31 high-danger chances while only allowing 11. It took awhile, but the Stamkos-Kucherov-Point triumvirate is playing well at the same time, and Johnson has done nothing in his first 30 games to suggest he should be given time with the Big Three. Still, as en fuego as the Bolts’ stars are, they will be facing down Carey Price in net for the Canadiens.

Carey Price in 2019-20 is not the same Carey Price who dazzled the hockey world and won the Hart Trophy in 2014-15. The Price of present day is closer to a pedestrian goaltender, submitting decent but not sparkling numbers. This season he ranks 15th in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expectation (2.24) and 5v5 save percentage (.922), and this is among the 30 goaltenders who have played 900 or more minutes.

We know the Lightning are one of the best teams in the NHL at producing high-danger chances, so how does Price fare in that metric? Among his peers, Price ranks 21st with a .825 high-danger save percentage and 22nd in high-danger goals saved above average at 5v5 on the season. Not good. But a key piece of information needs to be revealed. Even though Montreal ranks tenth in high-danger chances allowed on the season, the Canadiens have been impeding opponents of late, allowing the third fewest high-danger chances per hour in the month of December.

Bolstering the claim that the Habs are stingy, Price ranks 5th among goaltenders in the month of December for average shot distance. Still, as good as the Canadiens’ defense has been on the whole, its four biggest minute-loggers are Shea Weber and Ben Chiarot, and Jeff Petry and Victor Mete. No one would confuse either pairing for Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski during their heyday. If Tampa Bay comes out with a jump, they should be able to test the Canadiens’ gap control and force turnovers on the forecheck. The Bolts’ defensemen will need to get involved because, when they join the rush and pinch on the forecheck, high-danger chances emerge.

As mentioned, for the Lightning to make the playoffs, they will need to rip off a few extended win streaks, preferably sooner than later. Their most extended clusters of victories this season have been two three-game win streaks, both of which were followed by the Bolts losing consecutive games, thereby nullifying any advancements in the standings. After losing eight straight games, the Canadiens have righted the ship, winning seven of their last 10. If the Lightning belong in the playoffs, they need to be able to overpower and best a hot Canadiens team. Saturday night will be illustrative.

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