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Since the New Jersey Devils won the draft lottery I've been peppered with questions regarding who they should take 1st overall.
I've watched plenty of games involving Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier but I had never really zeroed in on those guys and examined their games with great detail, mainly because I didn't anticipate the Devils being in a position to draft either of them.
Over the last 24 hours, I've watched/tracked four games involving each player and filled my notebook with thoughts on each. I've also reached out to several people for their opinions on the debate.
"I'd be happy with either. Our scouts are split. Based on body of work and injuries not being long term problems I go Patrick." That quote was from someone working within an NHL organization.
Another evaluator told me Patrick's injury history "has to be a factor," and "the Devils could probably use the flashier guy (Hischier)."
The consensus: there is no consensus.
As Bob McKenzie outlined in his recent top-15 rankings, everyone seems to be torn between the two.
After going through plenty of game tape in detail, it's not hard to see why. I've gone back and forth and still haven't reached a conclusion I'm comfortable with. I plan on going through at least a few more games for each player but, in the meantime, I figured I'd share some of my thoughts and findings thus far.
On Nico Hischier
- One thing that stands out about Hischier is his ability to make plays in tight spaces. Regardless of where he is on the ice, he can still create make things happen under heavy pressure.
I'll share a few examples.
In this video, Hischier comes back to provide an easy outlet for his defense. He grabs the puck, slips past a couple players in the neutral zone and gets the puck to the middle of the ice for a chance.
In this video, Hischier does a nice job of controlling the puck with defenders all over him. He stops and starts to gain a little separation so he can make a play. He then gets the puck back near the half-wall and slides it between a few defenders to give his teammate a good shooting opportunity in the middle of the ice. The shot was weak but it resulted in a goal.
In this video, Hischier does a little bit of everything. He does a nice job rotating away from the defender and finding a soft spot in the defense to free himself up for a shot. Hischier then battles through contact and makes a little play to help keep it alive and help maintain possession. Seconds later he sets up a scoring chance from behind the net and then draws a (somewhat soft) penalty.
- Hischier's playmaking ability is really good. He can move the puck through tight spaces and create when it looks like nothing is there (see videos above). He is also very dangerous behind and around the net.
To help put Hischier's playmaking into perspective, he averaged more primary assists per 60 at even-strength than Matthew Tkachuk, Travis Konecny, Logan Brown and Alex Nylander did during their draft years.
- Hischier doesn't have a lot of power in his shot but he does have a quick release. It's on his stick and off it in a split second, which makes it very hard for goaltenders to stop. In my viewings, he's been really good at slipping through the cracks and finding soft spots in the defenses.
- He doesn't shy away from the physical game and uses his body effectively when protecting the puck or trying to knock an opponent off of it. He has bounced off bigger bodies a couple times but when he fills out a little more I don't see that being a problem.
On Nolan Patrick
- Patrick's skating is one area scouts have picked at a little bit. While he isn't a dynamic skater, I don't see it as a problem. He has long strides and gets around the ice fairly well even though it may not always look like it.
- One area Patrick definitely has Hischier beat: shot power. He has a heavy one-timer and doesn't shy away from using it. In general, there seems to be good zip on his shot. In one of the games I went through, Patrick didn't get the location he wanted but the puck still squeaked through because of the power behind it. He'll score his fair share of goals at the next level.
- Patrick has good hands for a guy his size. He showed the ability to stickhandle around defenders in space and looks confident with the puck on his stick. He tried some pretty fancy moves on breakaways, too.
- His defensive game comes as advertised. He is always back deep in the defensive zone to support and he prevented several scoring chances in my viewings by backtracking and tying someone up and/or using his stick to disrupt the play.
In general, he is really good at using his stick and size to separate players from the puck.
- Patrick can create chances for teammates as well. He has good touch and used saucer passers on numerous occasions to get the puck over sticks, bodies, etc. and to his teammates for good scoring opportunities.
- Patrick is a beast with the puck on his stick down low and in the cycle game. It is downright scary when he works his way back towards the point and then cuts towards the middle of the ice with a good head of steam. He has the shot power to score from a distance and the passing ability to hit open teammates, even across his body, after luring defenders to him.
Conclusion
I still haven't decided which player I prefer/would take if I had to choose right now and I'm not sure the Devils have, either. All I know is they are both really good and there is nothing stopping them from being top-6 players, if not top-line players, at the NHL-level.
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