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Late Wednesday night, TSN's Darren Dreger broke news that the Philadelphia Flyers had signed Shea Weber to an absolutely massive fourteen-year, $100M+ offer sheet, placing the ball squarely in the court of the Nashville Predators.
My immediate reaction? There's at least one general manager in the National Hockey League -- Paul Holmgren, specifically -- who understands the nature of the business. The end-goal is winning, and Holmgren has shown time and time again that he's willing to exhaust every detail of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement to bring a Stanley Cup to Philadelphia.
The whole stigma around offer sheets is one of the single-most baffling elements of the National Hockey League. Brian Burke and Kevin Lowe were going to
beat the living hell out of each other in a rented-out barn because of one over Dustin Penner. Brian Burke argued that the offer sheet was bad business; I submit in the alternative that Brian Burke's bad at business. But, I digress.
Offer sheets exist in the Collective Bargaining Agreement to do two things:
(a) Create the opportunity of youthful player movement at the expiration of early-career contracts; and
(b) Reward compensation packages to the teams who [potentially] lose said players
In the National Basketball Association, offer sheets are far less extreme in payout -- and, subsequently, more common. Perhaps the most famous offer sheet in NBA history came this season, with the Houston Rockets piecing together an absolutely heinous -- and, truly, a work of art when it comes to the NBA's current CBA -- offer sheet, back-loading an offer to New York PG Jeremy Lin that would financially
cripple dent the Knicks.
The Knicks, in turn, let Jeremy Lin walk. And remember, there's zero compensation heading the way of the Knicks organization. Houston -- knowing New York's bloated salary would exceed the soft-cap, and accordingly, create an excess of multi-million dollar paybacks in Y3 that even the Knicks wouldn't swallow -- simply took advantage of a precarious situation.
Many media types and fans weighed the financial risks assumed by both teams for such a young player, but nary a word about Houston conducting foul business. Even those in New York had to stand and applaud the genius of Houston Rockets ownership -- they're assuming plenty of risk in this deal, but due to the intricacies of the offer sheet system in the NBA, were able to price gouge New York into a corner and walk out with a potential star point guard.
Minutes after Darren Dreger's initial report on Shea Weber and the Philalphia Flyers, he followed up with an entirely predictable detailing of the contract terms and bonuses -- the Flyers essentially front-loaded the absolute hell out of his deal, one that sees $14M in combined salary and signing bonuses
Philadelphia manipulated the offer sheet system and contract legalese beautifully, with 93% of his total income in the first four years coming in up-front bonuses alone. The Flyers have to believe that the Predators will have serious trouble spending ~ $56M over the first four years, and for good reason.
While the Predators are one of the most respected organizations in hockey, their financials obviously do not compare to big market teams in New York, Toronto, Philadelphia, et al. As such, each and every business decision has to make sense with the team's bottom line, and right now, Shea Weber is looking like an incredibly expensive piece to Nashville's current puzzle.
Weighing the pros and cons -- a natural development in this situation -- creates an interesting angle. Should Nashville spend that much money on a blue liner with the departure of Ryan Suter, or should they let perhaps the best defenseman in the National Hockey League walk, receiving four(!) first-round picks in the process?
It's an argument that's going to be exhausted over the next week, but one that's absolutely worth talking about.
There's another argument -- the
fairness of offer sheets in the National Hockey League -- that's just about as lame as it gets.
Say what you will about the Philadelphia Flyers over the years, but pegged against the rest of the NHL, they've been one of the most successful at the only thing that really matters in this business -- winning hockey games. Front office wizardry is a large part of this.
When Philadelphia signed Shea Weber to this essential max-deal, they did assume some serious risk. While Weber pushes them infinitely closer to the elusive Stanley Cup threshold, they now have two absurdly lengthy contracts on their roster, and one is already wearing on the organization and fans in Ilya Bryzgalov. Weber's fourteen-year deal is no picnic -- especially if he runs into some sort of injury or undergoes a stage of regression as he transitions to the north.
Right now, the two sub-points -- injury and regression -- are complete unknowns, and there's no reason to believe either will happen. That's not the point, though. The unknowns
are the argument against lengthy term deals. Even the most staunch Flyers fan -- 215/267, born and raised -- will tell you there's a bit of uneasiness when inking a guy for that long.
Now, to Nashville. Predators fans know this is a tough spot for their organization after losing Ryan Suter, and the team could seriously turn down the standings should they lose both halves of their dynamic shutdown pairing. The pity party coming to their inexcusable defense, though, is just entirely unwarranted.
Remember, Nashville's had a number of chances to lock up Shea Weber long-term, and they've -- for a variety of reasons -- failed. And, anyone who thinks their low-ball $4.75M offer at arbitration -- for a player comparable to Keith Yandle and Dustin Byfuglien (
their words, not mine) didn't sour the relationship between player and organization is lying for the sake of lying.
With so many chances at locking up Weber in the 'Ville, one would assume that -- just perhaps -- Shea was interested in playing elsewhere, and that was all but confirmed when the defenseman signed the offer sheet in Philadelphia.
But guess what? In some ways, Philadelphia did all of the leg-work for Nashville. There's no more negotiation here, folks -- Nashville can simply match the deal and bring back their guy.
Or they don't. They don't, and they receive four first-round picks as compensation. Why wouldn't they match? Well, I alluded to the financials that Philadelphia loaded this contract with, heavy with eight-digit annual signing bonuses that could cloud Nashville's bottom line as an organization. That's plenty of reason.
And, as a small market team doing business in a small(er) city, Nashville's fully cognizant of this. They simply can't throw money around like other teams can and get away with it. Every move they make has to exemplify total business acumen. The prioritization of younger, cheaper talent turns max-players like the already-departed Ryan Suter,. and potentially departing Shea Weber into less of a commodity.
Nashville's decision is tough, but it's not unfair. These are the terms agreed upon by thirty NHL GMs in the prior Collective Bargaining Agreement, and indicting Philadelphia for squeezing it dry for one last shot at a franchise defenseman is about as hilariously inaccurate a take can be. Even David Poile knows this --
his statement to the media hours later contained no criticism of Philadelphia's approach.
Oh, and one more thing: Paul Holmgren doesn't give a shit about Nashville, nor should he. The focus is not the National Hockey League as a collective, but rather the current employer. If the Predators packed up and moved tomorrow to Kansas City, Holmgren wouldn't even wince.
It's actually eerily comparable to big business in and around Wall Street that cherry pick graduates from New York University, et al. to strengthen their work force. If you can't find competitive advantage, pack up and move. If you can find competitive advantage -- well, you can make it in this world.
You may have a problem with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. You may believe teams should assume additional risk when tendering one, or that there should be limits placed on the current system. With a new CBA approaching, you may not have to worry -- the GM groupthink that's clouded the offer sheet system for years will almost guarantee that the system will be revised.
In his magnus opus, though, Paul Holmgren executed one of the most beautiful offer sheets we've seen in quite some time -- designed in equal parts to create a winning product in Philadelphia, and bind Nashville financially so they're forced to accept the alternative compensation.
I mentioned earlier this morning that GMs in the National Hockey League can be divided down the middle and separated into two groups: Those who want to win, and those who want to look good amongst peers. Can you remind me which one Paul Holmgren is? Now,
this guy?
What Philadelphia did was dirty; filthy; ugly. Above all else, though, it was savvy business. And I like it.
Back with more tomorrow.
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