How are the Wings in the driver's seat when other teams have up to 3 games in hand on them? Marginally easier competition in significantly less games is not an advantage.

Also, the Flyers are barely in the picture. You are falling for the Bettman Point Fallacy.

- Snowblind

Barely in the picture implies exactly the opposite of the truth. they are the 9th team in the east and only 3 points out of a playoff spot and 4 points out of the 3rd spot in the division. so please explain how they are barely out of the picture?

Barely in the picture implies exactly the opposite of the truth. they are the 9th team in the east and only 3 points out of a playoff spot and 4 points out of the 3rd spot in the division. so please explain how they are barely out of the picture?
- sjk540

You're good to go. Keep winning and when the Bruins slide right out of it... You're in! YES!

I know it's hard for you to formulate a complete sentence being a Flyers fan, but if you're going to diss me at least use English so I can understand how you're ripping me a new one. Thanks!
- Crushers68

youve been here since 09 apparently, pretty sure plenty of other fans cant spell, formulate a sentence, use simple english, etc, etc. im not one for ripping people online so i agree there, but really? Spelling? you're (maybe) better than that

You're good to go. Keep winning and when the Bruins slide right out of it... You're in! YES!
- glove_was_stuck

to be honest the bruins wouldnt be the ones i want out. but however it happens i wouldnt mind

Out of that group of 5 teams, the Flyers have the worst record and by far the most ground to make up. Using their current points percentage to project their 82-game pace, the Flyers are running:

About 5 points behind the Bruins' pace
About 5.5 points behind the Penguins' pace
About 6.25 points behind the Red Wings' pace
About 8.5 points behind the Islanders'pace

They're also trailing each of these teams by 2-3 ROWs, which means they'll probably lose any ties.

I would agree that the Flyers are the only team currently on the outside of the East with a realistic shot at getting in, but they're still big underdogs. Sports Club Stats have them at about 33% to get in with the other four teams above 80% and the Islanders at 95%. Those estimates look very reasonable to me.

I'm pretty sure the Devils had some serious financial woes looming the next season, then add the $11m he was due for the next few years, and you can see where they were more than happy to let him walk.
- Scoob

Come on really? He was our best player. Even if there were financial issues they would have figured out a way to get under the cap to keep their best player

to be honest the bruins wouldnt be the ones i want out. but however it happens i wouldnt mind
- sjk540

Yeah it would be much easier for any to shred this defense.

Barely in the picture implies exactly the opposite of the truth. they are the 9th team in the east and only 3 points out of a playoff spot and 4 points out of the 3rd spot in the division. so please explain how they are barely out of the picture?
- sjk540

They are at least 3 points behind everyone, have more games played than everyone except the Wings, and do not a good chance at winning tie-breakers.

They are the textbook case of the Bettman Point Fallacy, where they are a sub .500 team, but they appear to still have a shot because of a lot of Bettman points. In reality, will have to play about .700 hockey the rest of the way to overtake the Pens and an even better clip to catch anyone else. Also their 2nd-best player is out for at least 2 weeks.

The trade deadline doesn't exist for the benefit of this site. Nothing is broken and nothing needs fixed.

The Flyers are 3 points back and the Penguins have a game in hand on them, 2 on the Bruins, and 2 on the Wings. The best chance NJ or Philly had to catch the Penguins came and went while Malkin was out of the lineup. I don't think the Flyers can catch the Pens, barring a significant injury to Letang, Crosby, or Malkin.
- Emperor Filonius

probably not...but they can catch them, and the 3 flyers/pens games remaining mean the race is very much alive

Out of that group of 5 teams, the Flyers have the worst record and by far the most ground to make up. Using their current points percentage to project their 82-game pace, the Flyers are running:

About 5 points behind the Bruins' pace
About 5.5 points behind the Penguins' pace
About 6.25 points behind the Red Wings' pace
About 8.5 points behind the Islanders'pace

They're also trailing each of these teams by 2-3 ROWs, which means they'll probably lose any ties.

I would agree that the Flyers are the only team currently on the outside of the East with a realistic shot at getting in, but they're still big underdogs. Sports Club Stats have them at about 33% to get in with the other four teams above 80% and the Islanders at 95%. Those estimates look very reasonable to me.
- Sven22

While you are not wrong...using points percentage from the season is pretty useless

While you are not wrong...using points percentage from the season is pretty useless
- YuenglingJagr

Why? Is there a better way to gauge how a team will perform in the last 20 or so games than how they have performed in the first 60 or so games?

- eichiefs9

Why? Is there a better way to gauge how a team will perform in the last 20 or so games than how they have performed in the first 60 or so games?
- Snowblind

actually, yes

injuries, trades, call ups have an effect...see: Montreal

This is the easiest question you've ever asked:
1. Stop making up rumors that never had a chance in hell of happening.
2. Check your "sources". When you start using Garth as a source, well, enough said.
- druryisclutch

Yep nothing wrong with the trade deadline..Teams who wanted to add did exactly that..End of story...

actually, yes

injuries, trades, call ups have an effect...see: Montreal
- YuenglingJagr

Okay, then. The Pens have Malkin back, the Flyers have Voracek on IR for at least 2 more weeks and the Bruins made 2 fairly significant deadline moves. Does any of that help your cause?

Okay, then. The Pens have Malkin back, the Flyers have Voracek on IR for at least 2 more weeks and the Bruins made 2 fairly significant deadline moves. Does any of that help your cause?
- Snowblind

Yep...and just because I am a Flyers fan doesnt mean I think they will make the playoffs. Using the points earned up to this point in the season is meaningless though. Teams peak at different times, and in regards to the Flyers, they have been a much better team since towards the end of November.

Using his little analogy...would Ottawa have made the playoffs last year based on points percentage up until the trade deadline? See what I mean?

While you are not wrong...using points percentage from the season is pretty useless
- YuenglingJagr

You're not wrong that projecting based on points percentage can be flawed, so instead let's throw the projections out and look at it purely in terms of what the Flyers would need to accomplish relative their opponents over the remaining schedule. Assuming they lose any tiebreakers (which is likely), at least one of the following things must be true in order for the Flyers to get in, with only 20 games left on their season schedule:

* Earn 4 more points than Pittsburgh while spotting them 2 games
* Earn 6 more points than Boston with only 1 game in hand
* Earn 7 more points than Detroit with only 1 game in hand
* Earn 5 more points than the Islanders while spotting them 3 games

(Technically they could also get in if one of the teams even further ahead gets truly skunked the rest of the way, though the chances are so remote we'll discount it for the sake of simplicity.)

Even if all four of those teams go just .500 the rest of the way (which is below average in the 3-point era) the Flyers would still need 95 points to get in, which realistically means 12-7-2 (a 108-point pace over the last quarter). Simply put, they either need to play like world beaters the rest of the way, or they need one of the leading teams to collapse, or both.

The Flyers do have the advantage of only having to leapfrog one team in order to get in and not having much competition from below, which is not an insignificant boost to their odds. It would not be shocking for them to get in, but they have a much tougher road than the other four.

All that said, to put the Flyers (playoff odds: 33%) in the same bucket as the Red Wings / Bruins / Penguins (~83% each) or Islanders (95%) is a mischaracterization. That's really all I'm trying to say.

You're not wrong that projecting based on points percentage can be flawed, so instead let's throw the projections out and look at it purely in terms of what the Flyers would need to accomplish relative their opponents over the remaining schedule. Assuming they lose any tiebreakers (which is likely), at least one of the following things must be true in order for the Flyers to get in, with only 20 games left on their season schedule:

* Earn 4 more points than Pittsburgh while spotting them 2 games
* Earn 6 more points than Boston with only 1 game in hand
* Earn 7 more points than Detroit with only 1 game in hand
* Earn 5 more points than the Islanders while spotting them 3 games

(Technically they could also get in if one of the teams even further ahead gets truly skunked the rest of the way, though the chances are so remote we'll discount it for the sake of simplicity.)

Even if all four of those teams go just .500 the rest of the way (which is below average in the 3-point era) the Flyers would still need 95 points to get in, which realistically means 12-7-2 (a 108-point pace over the last quarter). Simply put, they either need to play like world beaters the rest of the way, or they need one of the leading teams to collapse, or both.

The Flyers do have the advantage of only having to leapfrog one team in order to get in and not having much competition from below, which is not an insignificant boost to their odds. It would not be shocking for them to get in, but they have a much tougher road than the other four.

All that said, to put the Flyers (playoff odds: 33%) in the same bucket as the Red Wings / Bruins / Penguins (~83% each) or Islanders (95%) is a mischaracterization. That's really all I'm trying to say.
- Sven22

I'd add that the Flyers have only actually won 29 out of 62 games this season. They would seem a bit more dangerous if they were, say 34-27-1 instead of 29-22-11.

The 8 teams in the East that have won more than half of their games are in the playoff position and the 8 teams that have won less than half of their games are out of playoff position.

In the West, it is a bit messier, but the top 6 teams have won more than half of their games, the Avs have won exactly half, and the Preds have won one less than half, while the 6 teams out of the playoffs right now (including the Wild) have won significantly less than half of their games.

If you filter out the Bettman Point nonsense, the league standings come into sharper focus.

You're not wrong that projecting based on points percentage can be flawed, so instead let's throw the projections out and look at it purely in terms of what the Flyers would need to accomplish relative their opponents over the remaining schedule. Assuming they lose any tiebreakers (which is likely), at least one of the following things must be true in order for the Flyers to get in, with only 20 games left on their season schedule:

* Earn 4 more points than Pittsburgh while spotting them 2 games
* Earn 6 more points than Boston with only 1 game in hand
* Earn 7 more points than Detroit with only 1 game in hand
* Earn 5 more points than the Islanders while spotting them 3 games

(Technically they could also get in if one of the teams even further ahead gets truly skunked the rest of the way, though the chances are so remote we'll discount it for the sake of simplicity.)

Even if all four of those teams go just .500 the rest of the way (which is below average in the 3-point era) the Flyers would still need 95 points to get in, which realistically means 12-7-2 (a 108-point pace over the last quarter). Simply put, they either need to play like world beaters the rest of the way, or they need one of the leading teams to collapse, or both.

The Flyers do have the advantage of only having to leapfrog one team in order to get in and not having much competition from below, which is not an insignificant boost to their odds. It would not be shocking for them to get in, but they have a much tougher road than the other four.

All that said, to put the Flyers (playoff odds: 33%) in the same bucket as the Red Wings / Bruins / Penguins (~83% each) or Islanders (95%) is a mischaracterization. That's really all I'm trying to say.
- Sven22

I agree completely. I knew the lofty points percentage necessary and that the Flyers'chances are poor, I just didn't like using points percentage to date as a prediction of the rest of the season. Even a situation where they take 6 points from the Pens does not guarantee them anything. I didn't read through everything enough to know if anyone was trying to put the Flyers odds in the "same bucket" as the other teams or not. I sort of just figured they were included (bc Ek) but also they have the most realistic shot at overtaking one of the aforementioned teams.

With 2 games against the Pens in the final week of the season, we could see it drag on much longer than it really needs to. Kind of a no lose situation at this point for a lot of Flyer fans. Until Ghost was called up the season was boring and knew chances were almost non existent. So we either get in or we miss which everyone knew would happen anyway (well I guess not everyone haha) especially once MDZ and now voracek are out

I'd add that the Flyers have only actually won 29 out of 62 games this season. They would seem a bit more dangerous if they were, say 34-27-1 instead of 29-22-11.

The 8 teams in the East that have won more than half of their games are in the playoff position and the 8 teams that have won less than half of their games are out of playoff position.

In the West, it is a bit messier, but the top 6 teams have won more than half of their games, the Avs have won exactly half, and the Preds have won one less than half, while the 6 teams out of the playoffs right now (including the Wild) have won significantly less than half of their games.

If you filter out the Bettman Point nonsense, the league standings come into sharper focus.
- Snowblind

Okay, again, not trying to say the Flyers have a better chance than people think, but you're really making the same argument using different numbers. Why not use actual stats based on team play throughout the course of the season instead of just repeating "this is how the standings look to date"

Okay, again, not trying to say the Flyers have a better chance than people think, but you're really making the same argument using different numbers. Why not use actual stats based on team play throughout the course of the season instead of just repeating "this is how the standings look to date"
- YuenglingJagr

Yes. They call it analysis.

- Dr3aMWeav3r

yeah that is beyond terrible

Yes. They call it analysis.
- Snowblind

Okay, well then thanks for your input, Milbury