Hate to say this but, the standings suggest otherwise...
- Pecafan Fan

No you don't.

Really you hate to say that... yeah it must be tearing you up inside.
- BKups

There is an approximate (crudely calculated) 50% chance the Leafs draft 4th
- twiztedmike

Even if we finish last??? Also thank you and Burn for the links and info.

Here's another piece of potentially bad news for draft day:

The Flyers are closing in on the Penguins.

Marvin the Martian


Haven't seen cowen in a leaf jersey and won't.
- burn

Agreed. However if he did ever dress for a game then all criticisms of blatant tanking would then hold a bit more validity.

Here's another piece of potentially bad news for draft day:

The Flyers are closing in on the Penguins.
- Atomic Wedgie

Malkin was out for a while, he is back, they will be fine. Have the faith.

They have the worst goal differential in the league ( -36 ) along with Edmonton.

So, yeah, I don't know...
- Pecafan Fan

Regardless, I'd like to see how many 1 goal games they have lost

If you can provide that information, great. If not, then carry on

Not nearly as many as expected.


Many more one goal losses than you'd think.
- burn

Many?
Nah

quick count
19 losses by 2 goals or more
23 losses by 1 goal or more

Regardless, I'd like to see how many 1 goal games they have lost

If you can provide that information, great. If not, then carry on
- WingmanWillie

I just did

Even if we finish last??? Also thank you and Burn for the links and info.
- InTheWood

I just crudely calculated it

There's a 20% chance to win 1st overall in the lottery

I know that once you win, there's a lottery for the 2nd pick and every other team's chances go up slightly to win that one

But basically I took an 100% - 20% chance of winning = 80% chance of losing the lottery

Because I didn't wanna do permutations and combinations and stats and poop I just took the 80% chance of losing and multiplied it by losing by 80% for the 2nd lottery and multiplied it for losing again by 80%

.80 * .80 * .80 = ~ 50% chance of not winning any lotteries as the last overall team

Here's another piece of potentially bad news for draft day:

The Flyers are closing in on the Penguins.
- Atomic Wedgie

It would be so leafs to lose out on Pitts 1st and draft 6th this year.

I would laugh my ass off.

then cry


then cheer for a new team

Even if we finish last??? Also thank you and Burn for the links and info.
- InTheWood

Ran the draft 10 times and 7 out of the 10 we ended up top 3. Big gap between the 20% (1st) and 13.5% (2nd) in terms of getting not only the 1st overall but even into the top 3.

What I need to know is how many Norris titles will Gardiner win based on this chart?
- BlueBallz

He is being retrospectively awarded the last 3 Norris trophies.

Ran the draft 10 times and 7 out of the 10 we ended up top 3. Big gap between the 20% (1st) and 13.5% (2nd) in terms of getting not only the 1st overall but even into the top 3.
- BKups

the simulator really means nothing.

- bixll

quick on the trigger

I'll be honest. I have no idea what this means. Do the Leafs plot well or poorly on the graph?
- walshyleafsfan

Leafs are the last dot on the right ... 30th in the league in points percent and 10th in CF%

Regardless, I'd like to see how many 1 goal games they have lost

If you can provide that information, great. If not, then carry on
- WingmanWillie

Yeah I'm trying to find that info somewhere. No luck so far.

Yeah I'm trying to find that info somewhere. No luck so far.
- Pecafan Fan

quick count
19 losses by 2 goals or more
23 losses by 1 goal or more

This team just sucks.
no real bright spots.

Nylander, Hyman, Kapanen.

0 goals.

0 assists.

0 points.

Bust, bustier, bustiest.

Ha ha ha - you pathetic Leafs fans are always the same - drafting small crapz that don't score or amount to anything!

Plan the parade!

1967!
- Atomic Wedgie

Pyramid Power!

Paper-bag-head Coach!

They have the worst goal differential in the league ( -36 ) along with Edmonton.

So, yeah, I don't know...
- Pecafan Fan

The bolded made me laugh

My calculations say out of the 41 loses the Leafs have 22 have been by 1 goal and 9 have been by 2

In Nonis' last hurrah, he went out and made a undrafted free agent signing. Mark Hunter did the same.

This is where you see the clearest difference in talent evaluation

Nonis signed Casey Bailey
Hunter signed Nikita Soshnikov

I'm so thankful for our current management staff

quick on the trigger
- BKups

At times..

To help explain the lottery probabilities.

If the leafs finish last they have a 20% of getting first. If they don't get 1st then the probability of getting the 2nd will ended on who actually got the first pick. For example of if the 2nd last person happens to get the first(the best scenario) then the leafs would then have a 23% chance of getting the 2nd pick. If the don't get the second pick and let's say the 3rd last team gets it(best case scenario) then the leafs would have around a 27% of getting the 3rd pick.

So the probability that the leafs finish last and not get 1st or 2nd or 3rd is 45%

So the leafs will have around 55% chance of picking top 3 if they finish last (slight variation depends on who wins each pick)

I am a mathematician, so there is your math lesson for the day.

quick count
19 losses by 2 goals or more
23 losses by 1 goal or more

This team just sucks.
no real bright spots.
- Fakepartofme

That makes no sense. Every loss by the "or more" in "1 goal or more" would automatically go into "2 goals or more"

I call shenanigans