My calculations say out of the 41 loses the Leafs have 24 have been by 1 goal and 9 have been by 2
- walshyleafsfan

So over half of their losses this year have been by 1 goal?

Not bad for a team in the poopter

Their record is pretty bad, but from watching games, they do appear to be in the game most of the time.

In fact, they seem to have the edge in play a lot of the time.

They also have probably the worst offensive talent in the league, especially when JVR is out.

Corsi For % they are 10th, which probably means a combination of Corsi-For% is not that useful, and the Leafs are more competitive than their record indicates.

the simulator really means nothing.
- Fakepartofme

OK

My calculations say out of the 41 loses the Leafs have 22 have been by 1 goal and 9 have been by 2
- walshyleafsfan

They have 19 that have been by 2 or more.

He is being retrospectively awarded the last 3 Norris trophies.
- Aetherial

Sweet. Three of the last four went to the wrong guy anyway.

To help explain the lottery probabilities.

If the leafs finish last they have a 20% of getting first. If they don't get 1st then the probability of getting the 2nd will ended on who actually got the first pick. For example of if the 2nd last person happens to get the first(the best scenario) then the leafs would then have a 23% chance of getting the 2nd pick. If the don't get the second pick and let's say the 3rd last team gets it(best case scenario) then the leafs would have around a 27% of getting the 3rd pick.

So the probability that the leafs finish last and not get 1st or 2nd or 3rd is 45%

So the leafs will have around 55% chance of picking top 3 if they finish last (slight variation depends on who wins each pick)

I am a mathematician, so there is your math lesson for the day.

- rSole

My results tend to show around 80% chance of them not getting any top 3. They get in the top 3 about 20% of the time.

That is about 50 or 60 simulations; not sure if that is statistically significant?

So over half of their losses this year have been by 1 goal?

Not bad for a team in the poopter
- WingmanWillie

Ugh

quick count
19 losses by 2 goals or more
23 losses by 1 goal or more

Almost half their losses have by 2 or more goals......I believe they have 10 losses by 3 or more.

Their record is pretty bad, but from watching games, they do appear to be in the game most of the time.

In fact, they seem to have the edge in play a lot of the time.

They also have probably the worst offensive talent in the league, especially when JVR is out.

Corsi For % they are 10th, which probably means a combination of Corsi-For% is not that useful, and the Leafs are more competitive than their record indicates.
- Aetherial

Totally agree, Last few years we sucked, but we were also getting outshot 2 - 1. This year they are losing games, but they are competitive, and in many cases out-shooting the other teams. Like the Lightning games before last, with an AHL squad..

Their record is pretty bad, but from watching games, they do appear to be in the game most of the time.

In fact, they seem to have the edge in play a lot of the time.

They also have probably the worst offensive talent in the league, especially when JVR is out.

Corsi For % they are 10th, which probably means a combination of Corsi-For% is not that useful, and the Leafs are more competitive than their record indicates.
- Aetherial

OK
- BKups

its just to entertain the fans.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/...Pctg1GoalGame&aggregate=0

Many?
Nah

quick count
19 losses by 2 goals or more
23 losses by 1 goal or more
- Fakepartofme

So more, like I said. And you compared 1goal losses to 2 goal losses( not blowouts)

I just crudely calculated it

There's a 20% chance to win 1st overall in the lottery

I know that once you win, there's a lottery for the 2nd pick and every other team's chances go up slightly to win that one

But basically I took an 100% - 20% chance of winning = 80% chance of losing the lottery

Because I didn't wanna do permutations and combinations and stats and poop I just took the 80% chance of losing and multiplied it by losing by 80% for the 2nd lottery and multiplied it for losing again by 80%

.80 * .80 * .80 = ~ 50% chance of not winning any lotteries as the last overall team
- twiztedmike

and thus the importance of having the 11 other picks.

our draft success shouldn't rely on a bounce of the ball.

it's going to be through quantity and player development; picking 1st in each of the next 6 rounds should also help.

They have 19 that have been by 2 or more.
- Fakepartofme

Yeah. I did 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more.

Something like 22 1 goal
9 2 goals
4 3 goals
7 4 or more

To help explain the lottery probabilities.

If the leafs finish last they have a 20% of getting first. If they don't get 1st then the probability of getting the 2nd will ended on who actually got the first pick. For example of if the 2nd last person happens to get the first(the best scenario) then the leafs would then have a 23% chance of getting the 2nd pick. If the don't get the second pick and let's say the 3rd last team gets it(best case scenario) then the leafs would have around a 27% of getting the 3rd pick.

So the probability that the leafs finish last and not get 1st or 2nd or 3rd is 45%

So the leafs will have around 55% chance of picking top 3 if they finish last (slight variation depends on who wins each pick)

I am a mathematician, so there is your math lesson for the day.

- rSole

NEEERRRRRDDDD!

Good post. Thanks for the info

That makes no sense. Every loss by the "or more" in "1 goal or more" would automatically go into "2 goals or more"

I call shenanigans
- WingmanWillie

In Nonis' last hurrah, he went out and made a undrafted free agent signing. Mark Hunter did the same.

This is where you see the clearest difference in talent evaluation

Nonis signed Casey Bailey
Hunter signed Nikita Soshnikov

I'm so thankful for our current management staff
- WingmanWillie

Did you read the Soshnikov article on hotstove? Goes into his PPG production at 5v5 during his last 26 games when he was given more ice time, very interesting read. Might have been drinking the koolaid but looks promising.

- Symba007

You guys got that all-important loser point in your run for a playoff spot

At times..
- bixll

Yeah, usually I respond hours later.

What exactly is an "adventurer"?

How does an adventure start his day?

I am contemplating a career change.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?reportType=season&report=teamgoalgames&season=20152016&gameType=2&sort=winPctg1GoalGame&aggregate=0
- Pecafan Fan

Thanks. If you sort loss by 1 goal game, they are actually 4th. Not surprised to see Buffalo and Edmonton there, but Minnesota was a shocker

Did you read the Soshnikov article on hotstove? Goes into his PPG production at 5v5 during his last 26 games when he was given more ice time, very interesting read. Might have been drinking the koolaid but looks promising.
- BKups

do you mean Maple Leafs Hotstove?

Quite possibly the largest group of idiots to ever congregate on the interwebs.

Yeah, usually I respond hours later.
- BKups

Depends on how busy I am.

So more, like I said. And you compared 1goal losses to 2 goal losses( not blowouts)
- burn

Not at all.
I said they had several blow outs, roughly 10 3 or more game losses.

and they didnt have more 1 goal loses than I thought....I expected about half.

so no.

Yeah. I did 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more.

Something like 22 1 goal
9 2 goals
4 3 goals
7 4 or more
- walshyleafsfan

Yikes

Just bad.