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At least one GM sees an onslaught of offer sheets. But who? |
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Let’s talk about offer sheets...aka "The Things that NEVER Happen."
I had a fantastic conversation yesterday with a GM who said that while most offer sheets are still NOT going to happen he believes the following:
"No one is likely to offer sheet a superstar...it makes no sense due to the compensation....but there are several second tier players, especially key defensive players, who are very susceptible….many of my colleagues believe the floodgates could open on 2-3 million dollar players..."
Currently the way compensation works means if a player were to sign an offer sheet with your team and his salary averages over $4,059,322 per year (and less than $6,088,981) you are giving up a FIRST round draft pick and a third round draft pick... and it gets worse....way worse...
If the AAV is between $6,088,981 to $8,118,641 you are giving away a #1, #2, AND a #3.
If the AAV is between $$8,118,642 to $10,148,302 you are giving away TWO #1s, a #2, AND a third.
If the AAV is greater than $10,148,302 it RIDICULOUSLY jumps to FOUR...yes FOUR First round draft picks...
Honestly, if the players should try and get ANYTHING from the new CBA, this feels like where they are totally getting hosed...
Look at this realistically.
Let’s find a good player who makes between $4,059,322 and $6,088,981...
Cam Atkinson…is a steal for $5,875,000…He would be worth a first and third, but he is probably underpaid by two million bucks...Cam has 50 points in 48 games, 28 of which are goals this year and he could get 50….but almost surely hits 40… So let’s just say he ends up with 45 goals and 45 assists…a 90 point season…You offer him $5,875,000…Cam’s agent says “what are you smoking?” Remember, and I don’t know why people don’t remember this, but I think it is because of the term “offer” in offer sheet…which is incredibly misleading…
An offer sheet is not an offer…it is NOT you asking your girlfriend to marry you… An “Offer Sheet” should be termed a “Signed Contract Pending the Current Team’s Response. An offer sheet is your girlfriend saying “Yes I will marry you and here is how much we will spend for the wedding…pending my dad doesn’t kill me first”
So you have to convince Cam Atkinson to sign with your team…which means he is alright with your offer and ready to leave Columbus unless his current team matches. When a player does that it is HARD, because not only is he putting his team in a tough spot to come up with the higher money he is telling the team looking for the cash, “I am perfectly fine marrying someone else.” And THAT is why we sometimes see players who are matched on offer sheets…eventually traded. The spark is gone when you tell someone you are fine leaving them!
So to get Cam to do that you can’t just get away with $5,875,000…you have to go WAY over the top…say 8.5M for 5 years…Cam is good but you are giving him A LOT of money based on…..this year… AND you are giving Columbus TWO first round picks, a second, and a third for a probably over-priced Cam Atkinson…
What team would do that?
Today some in the media are saying Mitch Marner could easily be offer sheeted…..
EASILY?
Besides the fact the Leafs would match probably up to 11 Million, and besides the fact that Marner doesn’t want to leave his hometown and his teammates, you would be handing Toronto FOUR First round picks for Mitch Marner...Four first round picks is a EPIC trade..Unless you are getting McDavid or Crosby five years ago….there is NO player worth Four #1s.
So the star players aren’t moving via offer sheets…not in this CBA…
And then I keep hearing teams could try to screw other teams.
Like offering Marner a huge deal that the Leafs have to match just to throw off their cap. It really makes no sense as well...unless the player and his current team want nothing to do with each other...Remember Marner would have to agree to this...and that would be agreeing to a trick to screw his team… Any player agent would catch that in a second..
Finally, offer sheets themselves are expensive to legally put together. One I know of costs close to $20,000 and I have heard rumors of way more expensive offer sheets...and why put all that together if you think the team will match anyway...you are saving them legal fees drawing up the contract…
But offer sheets could be coming.
One of the byproducts of having a lot of superstars getting paid a large percentage of cap space is in order to balance this a team needs to get some players sub 1.5Million…Those are the sort of players who could very much be looking to move and improve their financial situations…
Who are some of these truly viable offer sheet players?
More coming up
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