(Note: this is the second in a multi-part series)
Odds are that very few Sabres fans would balk at a trade for Tampa Bay Lightning center Anthony Cirelli (see the case made
here) and even if this year's 8th-overall pick was the prime trade-chip coming from the Buffalo Sabres, there are still many (this writer included) who would go for it.
However, the odds of that happening are long.
In today's installment of filling the No. 2 center hole, we find a situation that is more of a possibility for Buffalo:
Adam Henrique, Anaheim Ducks
--Henrique has been my favorite acquisition for Sabres second-line center duties, but it isn't a perfect selection by any means. Not because he doesn't have the wherewithal right now to hold down that spot and help solidify the depth chart, but moreso because of his age, salary and term left on his contract.
The 30 yr. old Brantford, Ontario native is a former first round pick of the New Jersey Devils who was sent cross country in a trade with the Anaheim Ducks on November 30,2017 (defenseman Sami Vatanen went to New Jersey.) Highlights from his stint in New Jersey include finishing third amongst rookie scorers in 2011-12 (Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan Nugent Hopkins,) two overtime, series-clinching goals in the 2012 playoffs and a 30-goal, 50-point season in 2015-16. In his three seasons as a Duck, Henrique has scored 64 goals and 117 points in 210 games (or about 25 goals and 45 points per 82 games.) Although his average at best 5v5 metrics in Anaheim last season aren't really compatible with a $5.85million cap-hit, his 26 goals and 43 points in 71 games project out to 30 goals and about 50 points over 82 games which is very respectable for a full-time second-line center. It's also important to note that Henrique wasn't sheltered (50.7% O-zone starts) and nearly 80% of his points came at even strength (34 of 43 points.) He was also stellar on the dot--55.1% overall, 58.1% in the offensive zone.
Perhaps the biggest thing about Henrique is that there's a strong sense that a hockey trade between Anaheim and Buffalo could work very well (on a cap-hit basis too) with right-handed defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen going the other way. Hockeybuzz Anaheim Ducks blogger Ben Shelley responded to thoughts about a trade like this by responding to my inquiry, "I do think a Henrique for Ristolainen trade makes sense for Anaheim." Shelley points out that the Ducks "will need to make room down the middle for some young players" and he also added that he could "see them looking to move Henrique before the expansion draft (in 2021) to make sure they have the spots they need to protect their young forwards." Shelley also points out that Ristolainen "would actually fill a need for Anaheim."
"[The Ducks] are lacking a right-handed defenseman," he continued, "and if they do look to move Josh Manson in their re-tooling, that hole would only get larger" while also pointing out that other than Manson, Erik Gudbranson is their only RHD signed for next season.
However, as is always the case with speculative trades like this, no matter how much they make sense, the devil is in the details.
First off, Henrique has a modified no-trade clause where he can list 10 teams that he won't go to and even though the Sabres have superstar Jack Eichel and a budding superstar in Rasmus Dahlin, plus the opportunity for Henrique to move closer to his Brantford hometown, Buffalo could be on that list.
Secondly Henrique's contract is for four more seasons at $5.85 million. Many in Sabreland feel that 2019 first-round pick (7th-overall) Dylan Cousins will eventually be the answer at the pivot on the second line but will need a couple years of seasoning (ideally.) A projection like that has Henrique as a third-line center with a cap-hit of nearly $6 million for the final two years of his contract. The Sabres could absorb that and finagle their way through the next two seasons but come 2022-23, the big contracts they already have, plus new ones for Dahlin, Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, goalie Linus Ullmark and eventually Cozens could put them in a bind, especially with an expected Covid-19 related cap-ceiling of only $82.5 million.
Then there's the status of Ristolainen. The 25 yr. old defenseman has been a whipping boy for the analytics community, as well as many fans in Buffalo, the last three seasons and he has stated more than once that he's tired of the losing that's been going on. He's also offered his name up with the possibility of being traded. Which is good for this deal, right? However, Sabres bench boss Ralph Krueger really likes how Ristolainen performed in his system last season which leads us to believe that he thinks Ristolainen could be a part of the future, at least for the remaining two years on Ristoainen's contract.
Regardless of the negatives, the fit seems to be there although Buffalo fans rightly should have some reservations about the extra two years of Henrique's contract that will take him to 34 yrs. old. I'd pointed that out on another site (while playing armchair GM) when I presented a trade that asked Anaheim to send a 2020 second-round pick Buffalo's way (with the Sabres sending a 7th) because of that fact. It might not be possible from the Ducks' perspective so maybe they could eat a small portion of Henrique's salary, say $1 million?
That would be a good deal for both teams.
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