Who has the upper hand? In a best-of-five play-in series after a four-and-a-half-month layoff, there is uncertainty for most teams. Are the underdogs primed to sow chaos, or will they get slaughtered by veteran squads with more high-end talent?

When the NHL decided to buck tradition with this unconventional format, they imperiled a knot of very skilled teams who never managed to vault into the top tier of contenders in their conference. Pity. In the East, the Penguins, Hurricanes, Islanders, and Maple Leafs claim the 5, 6, 7 and 8 seeds. But faith in the presumed favorites is flimsy. The Islanders are underdogs to the Panthers. The Hurricanes are only slightly favored against the Rangers. The Penguins got their clocks cleaned against the Islanders last year, losing in a sweep, and are -195 to advance past the Canadiens, who have very favorable metrics from the regular season.

Unlike the West, which has a paucity of caliber squads and any of its play-in victors would be quickly smooshed by the Bolts, the East is unrelenting. Therefore, I’ve ranked the lower-seeded teams in the play-in round from best-to-worst matchup for the Lightning.

1. The Maple Leafs
I expect heavy pushback on this. After all, Toronto has Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander propelling its offense. But while the Leafs are replete with puck skill, they once again had an eventful season in an unwelcome way. Tyson Barrie, a trade acquisition from last summer, is a nice example of the better-on-paper reality that seems to personify this team.

Barrie possesses the mobility and offensive instincts Toronto covets. But it has been an ugly marriage. Jake Muzzin, another relatively recent Leafs addition, will be back from injury, but his presence on the blue line has not allayed concerns about the defense in the way Toronto anticipated. Yet, that is not to say there hasn’t been progress.

Before Mike Babcock was jettisoned from the Leafs, the team ranked among the worst five in the NHL in expected goals against. In expected goals for, they were just outside the top ten. In the subsequent 47 games, the Leafs ranked middle-of-the-pack in expected goals against and were top three in expected goals for. In expected goals percentage, the Leafs have been a top-five team since coach Sheldon Keefe took the reins.

While Morgan Rielly, Barrie, and Muzzin can push the puck up the ice and chip in offense, there are genuine concerns about whether they can slow down Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos. Moreover, the Lightning have scoring depth while the 4-6 players in the Toronto defensive group (Justin Holl, Cody Ceci, and Travis Dermott) can be exploited. Actually, let me rephrase that: The entire Toronto defensive group is ripe to be exploited.

What makes this ranking fun is that the Leafs could also rank as the toughest matchup against the Bolts. One flabbergasting statistic I found is that, in the past two postseasons, only Marc-Andre Fleury and Jordan Binnington have a better 5v5 save percentage than Toronto goaltender Frederik Andersen. Tweak the settings to all strengths and Anderson’s save percentage plummets to .910, although still better than Andrei Vasilevskiy’s. Nevertheless, there are real doubts from this corner that Andersen would be able to outplay Vasilevskiy for an entire series.

Overall, I like the Lightning’s matchup against Toronto the best because the Lightning can dictate the pace to their liking. If they stretch Toronto with their rush attack, they open up the neutral zone and apply pressure on the Leafs’ wobbly defense. Or the Lightning can control the puck in the offensive zone and slowly bleed Toronto to death. I have healthy skepticism about the Leafs’ possessing that same postseason versatility.

2. Hurricanes
The Hurricanes clawed their way to the Eastern Conference final last season despite having an unsustainable goaltending situation. Petr Mrazek played 11 games and Curtis McElhinney saw five, and even though they were sub-adequate, this didn’t sink the Canes against the Capitals and Islanders. A year later, the issue still has not been addressed, so, incredibly, the Canes are once again eyeing a run with two backup goaltenders, albeit with James Riemer in McElhinney’s role.

It’s a good thing the Hurricanes are willing to kneecap themselves in such an important position as goaltending because they are an interminably frustrating foe in most other facets. Carolina ranks third in possession, and top-five in expected goals for. (Tampa Bay ranks 9th in the latter.) In high-danger chances percentage, the Hurricanes finished just outside the top five, with the Lightning ranking 4th.

One thing that always stands out is what tight gaps the Hurricanes keep. The Lightning forwards struggle to create separation as Carolina’s skaters swallow even the Bolts’ most skilled forwards in the neutral zone. That happened in early October when Tampa Bay’s worst expected goals percentage of any contest came against the Hurricanes.

The long respite has had benefits for the Hurricanes. They could see the return of Dougie Hamilton and Sami Vatenen, giving them a nice push from the back end. Brett Pesce won’t be back in the lineup, but Carolina’s forwards are extremely adept at empowering their defensemen. Sometimes that is through strong back pressure, as the forwards buoy the defensemen to step up and take away their opponents’ speed. Another example is how the defensemen are utilized to help sustain territorial advantage. The Hurricanes are strategic about wearing their enemy down.

The Hurricanes also know how to create miniature races and battles that they consistently win, and their collectivist impulse means support is coming regardless. Finally, they have more boom in the artillery than they’ve had in seasons past. Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho are a handful for any defenseman, and Teuvo Teravainen is a gifted playmaker and creator. If the Canes weren’t crippled with inadequate goaltending, they’d be terrifying.

3. Islanders
In some ways, the Islanders have the Canes’ DNA. The Islanders can suffocate transition offense, and if the Lightning play them, they will be shooting into a blanket of bodies. Still, the metrics suggest that the Islanders’ defense can be exposed. During the regular season, they allowed the fifth most high-danger chances. Logically, their possession numbers are poor, so a team that struggles to hold the puck is inclined to allow scoring chances. Still, one should assume Barry Trotz will have his team dishing out a tight-checking, physical style that comports with the NHL playoff’s low-scoring, less-regulated ethos.

The Lightning spent a lot of time this regular season sharpening their forechecking skills for this type of series. With New York missing Adam Pelech and making the comical mistake of thinking Andy Greene is valuable, the Lightning can control the puck for the majority of the game. But Tampa Bay needs to manage the puck prudently and have accountability when New York gets aggressive. If the Lightning face the Islanders, Vasilevskiy will need to outplay Semyon Varlamov for the Bolts to advance.

4. Penguins
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are not fossils yet. Far from it. Malkin had a 1.34 points per game this year and Crosby also had over a point per game. That makes the venerable superstars and Pittsburgh still the most intimidating opponent for the conference quarterfinals. Like the Bolts, the Penguins’ superstars can swing a game, and they have a goaltender who can put his imprint on a series. Tristan Jarry is the netminder most capable of outperforming Vasilevskiy among this batch of teams.

Pittsburgh still carries the fumes of a team that won consecutive Stanley Cups. Compounding the concerns about stymieing Crosby and Malkin, left wing Jake Guentzel is slated to return. Bryan Rust has had a career year, and Kris Letang remains on of the NHL’s most formidable defensemen from the back end.

The Lightning went 3-0 against the Penguins during the regular season, although all three victories were virtually one-score games and two of the three wins came against Matt Murray. (On February 6th Kucherov potted an empty-net goal with less than 45 seconds remaining.) As against Toronto, the Lightning will have more room, but they’ll also have to figure out how to mitigate the Penguins’ elite scoring forwards. The mix of skater and goaltending talent, paired with a shrewd coach, makes Pittsburgh the most dangerous potential first-round opponent in my mind.

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