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Oilers vs Kings Round 1 Round 4 Primer |
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Here we go.... again...again...again.
For the fourth year in a row the Edmonton Oilers and LA Kings will face off in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The first series went to the Oilers, winning 4 games to 3. The second series was also won by the Oilers 4-2 and the third series also to Edmonton, 4-1. If there is a team winning this year 4-0, I don't think it will be Edmonton.
Over the past four years this is certainly the strongest Kings team that Edmonton will face. I struggle to call this the weakest Oilers team but it is the most unknown team due to the number of injuries that have plagued this roster this year.
A healthy Oilers roster (not including Ekholm who we know will not play in this series) will look something like this:
Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Frederic-RNH-Hyman
Kane-Henrique-Perry
Nurse-Bouchard
Walman-Kulak
Emberson-Brown(Stecher)
Now let's compare this to the likely Kings lineup:
Kuzmenko-Kopitar-Kempe
Fiala-Byfield-Laferriere
Foegele-Danault-Moore
Malott-Helenius-Turcotte
Anderson-Doughty
Gavrikov-Spence
Edmundson-Clarke
Here are a few quick stats for both teams:
Edmonton has 4 20+ goal scorers - LA has 5
Edmonton has 10 players with 10 or more goals - LA has 8
Edmonton's PP is 12th in the NHL at 23.7% - LA is 27th at 17.9%
Edmonton's PK is 16th at 78.2% - LA is 8th at 81.4%
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To break down which team wins in terms of FORWARDS, DEFENSE, and GOALTENDING:
Oilers - FORWARDS
Kings - DEFENSE
Kings - GOALTENDING
It is hard to argue against the Oilers winning in forwards when they have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as those two continuously elevate their game in the post-season. In terms of the surrounding depth, Skinner and Arvidsson have come on more in the past couple months (shockingly Skinner looks good when played with skilled players), RNH and Hyman have not been as strong as last season but remain solid complimentary top six options. Corey Perry scoring nearly 20 goals from a 4th line has been astounding.
The big unknown factor in this series will be Evander Kane and Trent Frederic who are simply unknown in when they will play and how effective they will be after coming back from long term injuries.
The defense goes to the Kings but only because the Ekholm loss is a huge loss and I likely would have awarded that category to Edmonton when healthy. Right now we are seeing Josh Brown slotted onto the third pairing. That is a player that could single handedly give the Kings the series win if he plays. The left side remains good with Nurse and Walman in the top 4 and in order to be successful, Evan Bouchard needs to eliminate the grade A turnovers in his own zone and not always go for the perfect cross ice pass. Personally I would rather see Emberson get time with Walman and put Kulak back on the third pair to try and stabilize things.
The goaltending there simply isn't a contest right now. Darcy Kuemper has been brilliant for the Kings this year with a 0.922SV% while Stuart Skinner has struggled to find any consistency, posting a 0.896SV%. I don't see Edmonton straight up winning any goaltending dual in this series and the defenders in front of Skinner need to be perfect in their shot blocking while the forwards need to get back fast to prevent any odd man rushes that Skinner has struggled with this year.
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The X factor for the LA Kings in the past has always been the health/preparedness of Kopitar and Doughty. Kopitar, (37) and Doughty (35) continue to prove that age is just a number and still put up strong numbers and are impact players for the Kings. This year however, if the Kings win, I think it will be because of Quinton Byfield. The 22 year old was expected to have a breakout season and while he struggled early, he just got better as the season went on. He frustrated the Oilers multiple times this year with 3 goals and 4 points in the 4 games against Edmonton.
For the Oilers, I talked about it a bit before but I am going to say if he plays, Evander Kane can be Edmonton's X factor. Fans fondly remember Kane's 21/22 playoff performance where he put up 13 goals in 15 games; for starters fans need to banish that from their minds as that was three full seasons ago and a number of serious injuries as well. Kane won't be putting up a goal a game type of numbers but he does bring a physicality to the Oilers top nine that they certainly miss without him. If Kane is able to provide that physicality AND not hurt the Oilers defensively with poor skating and judgement like he has over the past two seasons, Edmonton will have another valuable tool to compete against a tough Kings roster.
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I picked the Kings to win this series but I can still see a path to an Oilers victory. If Stuart Skinner can get back on one of his hot streaks and the Oilers separating McDavid, RNH, and Draisaitl can all get scoring than Edmonton will be a tough matchup not just for the Kings but any playoff opponent.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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