As the first round of the 2016 NHL Draft unfolded, the Flyers found themselves with a choice between selecting among several North American forwards who do one thing exceptionally well or taking a well-rounded Russian prospect whose exposure was limited over the past season.
Kieffer Bellows is a pure shooter with question marks about the rest of his game. Max Jones is a nasty left winger with a size/speed combination and perhaps a 50-50 shot at either becoming a top-six power forward -- a better-skating version of the Scott Hartnell mold -- or else having a career as a role player somewhere in the range of the careers of former first-round picks Raffi Torres, Ben Eager or current Washington Capitals winger Tom Wilson. A lot of NHL scouts soured on Julien Gauthier's game as the 2015-16 season progressed. Wuestions started to fly about his adaptability to the NHL despite being a good finisher with a huge frame and excellent strength (although not very consistent in applying it).
The Flyers bypassed all three players with the 18th overall pick, opting to trade down to 22nd overall and and also receiving an early second-round pick (36th overall) in exchange for a mid third-round pick (79th). The Flyers also hold the 48th and 52nd overall picks, for three second-round picks in all.
Philadelphia traded down on the hopes that Russian junior national team center German Rubtsov, the player whom they considered the best available talent among players available at the 18th spot, would still be on the board four picks later. That seemed to be the end-game strategy the Flyers were pondering once the first-round blue chippers were off the board.
If it was Bellows or Gauthier they wanted the most, the Flyers probably would have stepped up to the podium and used the 18th pick on that player. If they guessed wrong that Rubtsov would still be on the board, one of Bellows, Gauthier or Jones probably still would have been there as Plan B.
“We had a really good backup plan that we were comfortable with,” Hextall said. “We said best case scenario, we get this guy, and at 37 we’re looking at a group. Then, if we don’t get this guy, these [other] guys are close, so we’re OK with it. Otherwise you don’t [make the trade].”
After Winnipeg used the 18th pick on gargantuan-framed defenseman Logan Stanley, Bellows went 19th to the New York Islanders, the Detroit Red Wings took defenseman Dennis Cholowski 20th and the Carolina Hurricanes selected Gauthier 21st.
The Flyers then bypassed again on Jones -- not an indication they didn't like the player at all, but rather that they liked Rubtsov more --and took the Russian player. Predictably, there was divided, knee-jerk reactions among Flyers' fans who had their hearts set on one of Bellows, Jones or Gauthier.
Rubtsov, who has not yet played above the MHL (Russian junior league) level and whose entire team was removed proactively from the 2016 Under-18 World Championships in Grand Forks as fallout from a meldonium doping scandal, is widely described as a two-way center who already has a highly developed defensive game for a player his age.
McKeen's quoted an NHL scout saying the following about Rubtsov: "He was Russia’s go-to forward and top center at the WJAC,” said one crossover scout. “He competed hard and backchecked, you never saw him entering the defensive zone well after the play. He’s a big kid that skates okay, and he has some offensive skills. If he puts everything together he may have second-line upside, but not having seen him much raises question marks."
The bigger Rubtsov proponents think he also has significant offensive upside that he's only just begun to tap into. Averaging nearly a point-per-game at the MHL level as a 17-year-old is very respectable from a production standpoint. The Flyers tout his playmaking skill in particular.
There are fewer goals scored in the MHL than in Canadian major junior, so a rough equivalent to his domestic junior league output would be over a point-per-game in a CHL league. Central Scouting noted that Rubtsov was second in scoring (five points off the lead) on his team to winger Artur Kayumov, who played 11 more games. They also noted a track record of big-game scoring, especially in previous international tournaments.
Rubtsov's rights in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) are owned by Vityaz Chekhov, his hometown team in whose development chain he played until being loaned this season to the national junior team. His agent is said to be working on getting the player's rights released from his KHL contract (which will require negotiated compensation to the team). That's public confirmation of rumors that he was willing to come to North America and play junior hockey after going through the 2016 CHL Import Draft. No doubt Rubtsov told that to the Flyers first during their interview with him at the NHL Combine.
In that regard, I reiterate what I wrote in yesterday's pre-draft blog:
Interviews at the Combine, as the Flyers approach them at least, are to fill in the blanks if they want to know a little bit more about the player as a person, his perceptions of his own game or to answer a couple specific questions.
For example, there are a lot of blanks to fill in around Rubtsov, who is described as a two-way talent with a mature defensive game for a player his age and projectable offensive upside. I suspect the Flyers and every other team that talked to Rubtsov asked questions about his willingness to come play in North America sooner rather than later, get a sense of his attitude toward the American Hockey League, ask in a non-accusatory way about the doping scandal that got the entire Russian team banned from the 2016 Under-18 Worlds (the U17 squad took its place), how eager he seems to make the language and cultural adjustments and how he sees himself as a player.
Flyers Russia-based scout Ken Hoodikoff has no doubt seen Rubtsov play quite a bit but the lack of playing in the U18 Worlds prevented other scouts from seeing him in a major tourney. Additionally, he had yet to play above the MHL (Russian junior) level domestically within Russia. To draft Rubtsov would mean than Hoodikoff raved about him, the other scouts along with Chris Pryor and Ron Hextall feel comfortable in stepping up to select him and that the player himself is agreeable to a development plan that would be more in the Flyers' hands than the typical path that KHL teams put their prospects.
That is a lot of variables and no small amount of risk tolerance so, in this case, not interviewing the player at the Combine would have been more telling than it is with other players. It's been rumored that Rubtsov is willing to come to North America next season after the upcoming CHL Import Draft but it's different to hear such a commitment directly from the horse's mouth.
After the completion last night of the first round of the 2016 Draft, Hextall told the media that the organization is comfortable either way if Rubtsov ends up spending the 2016-17 season in Russia or if he comes over to North America. While I don't think the organization would be distraught if he remained in Russia, I also think they would strongly prefer if he could get out of his KHL commitments and play in the CHL this year.
Look at what happened this past season with Flyers prospect Mikhail Vorobyov. He experienced the typical handling that KHL clubs -- and many European teams in general, at least traditionally -- give to their young players who are advanced enough to crack the senior team. Vorobyov was recalled from the MHL to the KHL but barely played for Salavat Yulaev Ufa. He dressed for games but only skated a couple shifts and essentially played under the expectation of not screwing up rather than to being encouraged to approach shifts as trying to make plays. Much like the NHL, that trust has to be earned over time, but in the KHL, the word apprentice might be more accurate than rookie in most cases.
Rubtsov is probably KHL-ready now, as he is presumably more advanced than Vorobyov despite being younger. Nevertheless, he'd get a lot more playing time in a variety of different situations if he's either in a CHL league or primarily in the MHL with a few KHL games mixed in rather than primarily in the KHL.
Additionally, coming to North America sooner could enable Rubtsov to be part of Flyers' camps, have more regular access to touching base with the development coaches in the Flyers' organization, be placed on a nutrition and conditioning plan crafted for him by the Philadelphia staff and, in general, be more within Flyers' control than that of his KHL parent club. Plain and simple, no matter what Hexy says, that option is the more appealing to him than waiting on Rubtsov's overseas commitments to run their course.
I do not think this is going to come in to play here, but in the interest of discussing all options, as a player drafted out of Europe, Rubtsov is NOT age-restricted from the American Hockey League. An entry-level deal would be slide-rule eligible until the 2018-2019 season. Again, though, I think the strong preference and actual plan is the CHL development route as long as he can get released from his KHL contract.
The Flyers would not have drafted Rubtsov if they were not high on his total upside as a player. In fact, they apparently went through quite the painstakingly thorough process all season before the ever-cautious Hextall had enough comfort level to take on the inherent risks; both the ones specific to KHL players' availability and willingness to work his way up in North America rather than expecting to start in the NHL, doing their due diligence on the doping scandal and posing the sorts of questions that get asked of all players.
"We did more research on this kid than I’ve ever done. He’s got really good character," Hextall said.
The Flyers' GM said the organization believes that, if not for the banishment of the Russian U18 squad from the IIHF tourney in Grand Forks, Rubtsov could have been a top-10 pick. While teams always talk up their picks, the amount of hoops the Flyers seem willing to jump through for this player suggest that the organization really does regard him as a special talent.
Today's NHL game is very much a puck possession oriented game, and Rubtsov has the makings of being someone who can help in that regard because he'll go get the puck if he doesn't have it and protect it if he does. Virtually every report on him cites him as one of the more hockey-smart players in this year's draft class.
Rubtsov's skating gets generally lukewarm reviews from the public sources-- neither deficient nor blazing -- but keep in mind that he currently has just 178 pounds on his 6-foot-2 frame. As he fills out and gains strength, he should also gain some more leg drive and explosiveness. Actually, Hextall himself cited skating as one of the player's already-existing assets.
"He’s a full-sheet player, a playmaker first and foremost,” Hextall said to the attending media. “He’s responsible, brings speed and plays the game the right way.”
For what it's worth, the Flyers' internal ranking of Rubtsov is pretty much in line with the various major pundits, reputable pre-draft publications and scouting services. Craig Button ranked him 14th in his final "Craig's List", International Scouting Services had him 15th, McKeen's placed him 22nd, both TSN/Bob McKenzie and The Hockey News ranked him 23rd.
Rubtsov was Central Scouting's 5th-ranked European Skater on its final list.
One of the most commonly voiced criticisms of the Rubtsov selection -- by people who could not possibly have ever seen him play unless they happened upon watching a streamed MHL game this past season or one from when he played in the Ivan Hlinka tourney, which is a very doubtful scenario -- is that the Flyers have "no scoring forwards" in the farm system.
To that, I point out:
1) Travis Konecny has high-end point-production potential. Additionally, Nicolas Aube-Kubel clearly has offensive game. It's consistency and all-around play at the pro level are the areas he'll be working as a Phantoms rookie next season. Oskar Lindblom has some offensive upside as a potential top-nine NHL forward. Even someone such as Taylor Leier, who hit the 20-goal mark this past season in his second AHL campaign, has potential to chip in a bit offensively. Yes, the Flyers can use more scoring, more size and some more high-end wingers but that takes time to build and they are not bereft right now.
2) I understand skepticism. It's knee-jerk overreactions that I detest. To those who disliked the pick right off the bat, if waiting a few years to see how Rubtsov develops is too much to ask, can you please at least wait to actually see Rubtsov play once or twice before declaring he's going to be strictly a checker? The Flyers have earned a benefit of the doubt here. They've established a good first-round track record with forwards taken in the latter part of the round, and many of the same people involved in the selections of players such as Claude Giroux and Simon Gagne --both picked 22nd -- still work for the organization. There are always a lot of variables at work and no guarantees on any player, but to automatically trash a pick because he's not the player you hyper-focused upon and you assume he'll fit every negative stereotype of Russian players is patently unfair.
3) One thing that is not lacking at the start of the second round of this year's draft is players who have scoring upside. At least a half-dozen possibilities -- differing in playing styles, size and other areas that need work to make it in the NHL but all of whom have offensive potential --- are still on the board in a round where the Flyers have three picks.
In terms of some of the possible names of interest, there's fast-riser Pascal Laberge, tiny (5-foot-7) but prolific junior scorer Alex DeBrincat, Swedish forward Jonathan Dahlén, center Cliff Pu (buried deep in an ultra-stacked London Knights lineup this past year but possessing skills that probably would have had him in the top six of many other OHL teams), small QMJHL sniper Vitali Abramov. Sarnia's Jordan Kyrou, one of the fastest skaters in the draft, closed the season on the offensive upswing. USHL right winger Wade Allison was hardly mentioned before the season and by the end, became a hot name (good size, plus skater, heavy righthanded shot).
Sault Greyhounds winger Boris Katchouk has some two-way upside, although he may project as more of a solid bottom-six as he moves along. He'd be less of a high-risk/ high-reward pick among the three second-round selections. Conversely, USNTDP defenseman Adam Fox is a righthanded blueliner in the Shayne Gostisbehere mode -- not as explosive of a shot but very fast, very creative offensively from the back end and possesses good hockey sense to compensate for lack of size.
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