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Draft Profile: Jay O'Brien, Flyers Pre-Draft Podcast, Quick Hits |
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DRAFT PROFILE: JAY O'BRIEN
In every draft year, there are "sleeper" candidates for latter first-round or early second round selections. One such player in the 2018 Draft crop is Thayer Academy standout center Jay O'Brien. He is virtually a lock to go within the first two rounds of this year's Draft. The question is the range in which he'll land.
Talent-wise, there is no doubt that O'Brien has at least latter first-round caliber talent between his stickhandling, feet and ice vision. He tore apart a much lower caliber of competition he faced at Thayer, to the tune of 80 points (43 goals, 37 assists) in 30 games. His Thayer coach, longtime NHL star Tony Amonte (himself a Thayer product), has said that O'Brien has NHL star level skills and hockey IQ.
According to scouts with whom I've spoken as well as a well-connected friend with decades of pro hockey experience, O'Brien boasts a well above-average wrist shot, makes tape-to-tape passes, accelerates fast and plays a hard-working game on top of a highly skilled one. His dominant performance at the USHL Fall Classic put him on the radar for this year's Draft, and Thayer became a regular destination for NHL amateur scouts as it was in the days when Jeremy Roenick and Amonte were the school's big stars.
O'Brien's Draft projections are all over the map, ranging from the 20s to the area in which his hometown Boston Bruins might be in range to select him with the 57th overall pick (their first in this year's draft). For what I have heard, I think O'Brien will be off the board well ahead of Boston's pick. They'd most likely have to move up significantly if they are targeting their latest local product. Ditto the Flyers, whose second-round pick falls 50th overall.
The consensus on O'Brien is that his upside is that of a top-six NHL forward (middle six at worst) if he approaches his ceiling. Such players are often picks. If that is the case, why O'Brien's draft range so uncertain?
First and foremost, it's due to lack of exposure to high-grade competition. As a late birthday player (born Nov. 4, 1999), he was too young for the 2017 NHL Draft but too old to play in the Under-18 World Championships. He spent some time with the USNTDP squad, and held his own, as well as playing four USHL games with the Youngstown Phantoms. He is committed to Providence College, starting in the 2018-19 season.
Secondly, O'Brien is not big, standing just a listed 5-foot-10 but is deceptively strong (185 pounds) with a low center of gravity. He does not have much of a physical game but battles for pucks. Even so, when high school players get taken in the first round of the NHL Draft (such as 2017 eighth overall pick Casey Mittelstadt, who turned pro after one collegiate season and posted five points in his first six NHL games with Buffalo), they are usually bigger, physically mature players. O'Brien would be an exception.
Mittelstadt, himself a late birthday (1998) player, also had the benefit of playing in the Under-18 World Championships a year ahead of his NHL Draft eligibility, where he posted nine points in seven games. In O'Brien's case, the combination of having yet to play in any international tournaments and playing less-than-suitable opposition is enough to knock him below the range where a fellow smallish player such as USNTDP regular Joel Farabee is likely to be selected.
Nevertheless, it is possible that some NHL team could be high enough on O'Brien -- who will need a few seasons before he is likely to be NHL ready -- to step up and draft him in the lower third of the first round or early in the second. Apart from the Boston rumors, it's also being said that the Rangers could step on the player. Maybe even the Flyers if they trade down a bit. O'Brien reportedly tested and interviewed well at the NHL Scouting Combine, which also could help bump him up a few spots in some teams' final pre-Draft rankings.
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QUICK HITS: JUNE 18, 2018
1) Today on Flyers Radio 24/7, Brian Smith and I will be co-hosting a pre-Draft edition of the FlyerBuzz podcast; a lead-in to programming we will have over the course of the Draft weekend itself.
2) Today in Flyers history: On June 18, 2007, the Flyers returned to the Nashville Predators the 2007 first-round pick they received from Nashville in the Peter Forsberg trade. In exchange for flipping the back to the Predators, the Flyers received impending free agents Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell. On the same day as their trade-and-sign acquisitions, the Flyers announced new six-year contracts for both Timonen and Hartnell. Thus, the de facto return to Philadelphia in exchange for the Predators' stretch drive and playoff rental of Hall of Fame center Forsberg (who only played 11 additional NHL games after 2006-07 due to chronic foot issues that ultimately forced his retirement) was Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, Timonen and Hartnell.
3) Flyers Alumni birthday: Flyers goaltender Antero Niittymäki, subsequently a Flyers scout before becoming a general manager in Finland's Liiga, was born on June 18, 1980.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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