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Top offseason question: should Laf be extended now, for how long & much? |
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The top offseason questions series of blogs rolls on today. Today’s topic for your perusal is Alexis Lafreniere. The question is: “Should the Rangers extend Alexis Lafreniere long term now, and if so, for how long and what kind of salary?”
NHL.com posed an interesting question this week. Here are top four picks in the 2020 draft: Laf, Byfield, Stutzle and Raymond: which would you rather have?
Byfield, the second pick behind Laf, inked a five-year, $31.25 million deal this past week. Once that contract ends, Byfield, who posted 20 goals and 35 assists in his breakthrough campaign this year, will be an unrestricted free agent. The “shorter term” of the contract allows him to make up for what he might have left on the table in this deal, especially on the back end (see the analytics below).
Stutzle, taken third overall in 2022, signed an eight-year, $66.8 million contract extension with the Senators in September of 2022. He went from 29 to 58 and then 90 points his first three seasons and signed that contract just before year 3. Ottawa opted to be aggressive in signing him, locking him until he is 29 after the 2030-31 season. Stutzle took a mild step back last year, but no one is questioning the deal, either in terms of years or dollars.
Raymond, taken fourth overall in 2022, posted 57 points as a rookie. He had a sophomore slump, falling to 45 points, before rebounding to notch 72 points last season. Detroit needs to extend both Raymond and Moritz Seider, each of whom warrant big deals. Raymond, an RFA, seeing what Byfield signed for and Juraj Slafkovsky's deal, will have to decide if he prefers to go shorter-term and become a free agent earlier or is in line with what Steve Yzerman is building and wants a long-term deal.
Slafkovsky, the first overall pick in 2022, signed an eight year deal with a $7.6 million AAV. He inked that deal with one year left on his entry level contract as Montreal, like Ottawa, opted to be aggressive. Slafkovsky is viewed along with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield as the future for the Habs.
Following a so-so rookie campaign in 2022-23, the 20-year-old forward made plenty of progress in 2023-24, generating 20 goals and 50 points in 82 regular-season games. That output came after Slafkovsky only had four tallies and 10 points in 39 appearances last year, drawing some questions as to just how good he really was. Slafkovsky more than answered that question and should see time on the top line and the first power-play unit in the upcoming season.
Turn back the clock a year ago. At the time, the term "bust" was prominently thrown around in reference to Lafreniere. Fast forward a season and Laf is now rightly viewed as a core and key member to the Rangers, evidencing just how quickly fortune can change and how somewhat snap judgments can be proven wrong.
Last season, Laf took a very mild step forward during the regular season, producing 16 goals, 23 assists, 135 shots on goal and 141 hits in 81 contests last season. But in the playoffs against New Jersey, he was invisible, calling into question his future on the team. That level of criticism had several looking how and where Laf could be moved.
The slate was somewhat wiped clean coming into the year due to the hiring of Peter Laviolette as coach. Add in the move from left to right wing and placement on a line with Artemi Panarin and there was hope. Once Vincent Trocheck joined that duo, the dye - in a positive direction - was cast. Laf hit the ground running from Day 1 and never looked back.
At the end of the 82-game schedule, Laf had career-highs in goals (28), assists (29) and points (57). A huge component of his rise, beyond just his linemates, which were a factor, but he helped them just like they helped him, was his willingness to shoot. Laf went from 135 shots in 2022-23 to 217 last year while also seeing close to two minutes more of ice time nightly.
But here is one of the keys as to why we all believe Laf has another level to reach. As opposed to his esteemed draft compatriots and Slaf, all of whom see first line PP TOI, Laf is still relegated to the second unit. His actual PP TOI dropped four seconds a game and just six of his 57 points came on the man-advantage. I think most of us feel that 30+ goals should be in the cards this season. If he can move to the top unit, now or in the near future, 35 goals and close to 80 points seems reachable.
With the above as the backdrop, what type of salary and term could Laf expect. He could opt for the Byfield-like deal, earning free agency earlier. New York may want a longer term deal to keep Laf, who should eventually have an A on his chest, in town. The projected rise in the cap will aid the chances of Laf getting a max deal, at least in terms of year. Salary, however, may be the sticking point.
My prediction is eight years at between $7.5 to $8.5 million with the probability of the dollars landing at the upper end of that range.
What do you say?
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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