The Rangers held on for a 2-1 win over the Ducks on Saturday. Off a desultory performance in the 3-1 loss to Florida, New York was much better last night, especially in the first and third periods. Jonathan Quick was brilliant and the third line continued to excel in the win. I provide my view on Matt Rempe's demotion and Alexis Lafreniere's contract extension. The Blueshirts are in DC to face the Capitals on Tuesday.
Scratches: Mancini, Leschyshyn (recalled in morning)
LTIR: Vesey (lower-body):
A few thoughts:
1) Quick made 32 saves, including several of the highlight variety, to notch the win. He appears to have gotten better as he ages. Quick's lateral movement has been stellar, while his glove hand remains as quick, no pun intended, as ever. He flashed that leather in robbing I believe Leo Carlsson in the slot. It's a nice luxury to go from Igor Shesterkin to Quick and experience very little drop off.
2) Third line brilliance. Filip Chytil has the jump in his step that we have seen in the past but has been halted due to injuries. Kaapo Kakko is physical, grinding on the boards and on the forecheck. Will Cuylle, despite having another goal taken off the board yesterday, is displaying his all-around game. Put the three together and you have the second most effective line on the team. By advanced metrics, as seen in the tweet by Vince Mercogliano and Money Puck, that trio would be first in the league if 70 minutes played together was the minimum.
If you narrow the criteria to lines that have logged at least 70 min together so far this season, Cuylle-Chytil-Kakko would be No. 1. Laviolette is recognizing their effectiveness and actually gave them more TOI last night than the Kreider-Zibanejad-Smith trio. #NYRhttps://t.co/S2T1A3ntva
That trio has been phenomenal. New York has been searching for a true third line since the run to the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals. Be a checking line or scoring line, the Rangers have never been able to decide which they want, nor get either. It's early, but this trio may be able to handle both. Cuylle and Kakko are the physical duo while Chytil is the more skille of the trio, but he has shown more physicaity than expected due to his concussion history.
New York has been blessed with a second line which is really their first line in the Artemi Panarin-Vincent Trocheck-Lafreniere line. Of course, much of the attention has rightly been on the erstwhile first line of Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Reilly Smith collaboration. That trio has had their issues, as they are not dominating as expected with a great deal of the spotlight on Zib, and to a lesser extent, Kreider.
No question that Zib has struggled five-on-five the past year-plus and maybe even beyond that. I am a big believer that confidence begets confidence. We saw that with Panarin in the past. To me, the same applies here. Why Zib lost that confidence is somewhat unknown, as not all can be explained by struggling in the playoffs. But whatever the driver, he clearly lacks it. That decline in belief in his game extends to the PP, as he repeatedly looks to pass rather than shoot
One positive is that his presence and that of his line takes pressure off the other two lines, since they still draw defensive attention. That said, by pure production and how dangerous the three lines have been, this line is potentially the third best trio. I still think Zib can rebound, and with that, bring up Kreider and Smith. But the longer his issues persist, and lots of reasons have been given, including his adjustment to being a father, which maybe completely inaccurate and a convenient excuse, the deeper the psychological hole that he falls into gets. I am not giving up on Zib because he is still good defensively and between the dots, but his offensive issues can't fully be ignored.
3) Laf extension: There is no question Lafreniere left money on the table. Most of us expect an eight-year deal with a salary number starting with eight. He decided to go with a seven-year deal with a $7.45M AAV. If you figure half a mil per year was the savings and the $8 mil in year-eight, that's $10.8 mil present valued that Laf "left" on the table. On the flip side, he will be a free agent when he turns 30, allowing him to possibly earn another long term deal at the time.
For all the prior talk after he was drafted that he was a bust, those individuals are left with egg on their face now. We all saw the 5x5 dominance with his numbers adversely affected by his lack of PP TOI, plus his line placement. The latter issue was resolved last year when Laf was moved on a line with Trocheck and Panarin with the chemistry readily apparent. That change resulted in a rise in production and confidence, each going hand and hand (see comment on Zib above) He deserves first unit power play placement. When that happens, his numbers will spike. The bust talk is not but a memory.
Laf extension official and numbers: No NMC and an 8-team NTC in the last 4 years.
Not a finished product yet but something really unlocked last season and I would be surprised if we don't see further progression from here. pic.twitter.com/rARZzFcTjq
#MyModel is still being stupidly stubborn about Lafrenière's breakout, but here's the chart anyways!
Laf only needs to average a +5 Net Rating to be worth it and has been at that level for the last year. Once he starts getting PP1 time, he'll shoot well above this projection. pic.twitter.com/HIW5FoaH4A
Cap impact:
As Mercogliano noted, Blueshirts team president Chris Drury can now shift his attention toward extensions for defenseman K'Andre Miller and star goalie Igor Shesterkin, the latter having already turned down an eight-year, $88 million offer. He's looking at approximately $25 million in available salary cap space to fill the final nine or 10 spots on the 2025-26 roster, those two included. The 500K savings will help a little as well as if the cap rises more than expected.
Figuring a way to sign both long term, with Miller's price possibly dependent on how well he plays with Adam Fox, will be a major challenge. Igor is going to want near or more than $12 mil per as seen by what he declined already. Laf may have taken a slight hometown discount, which was recognized by Trocheck. Igor will not. If Victor Mancini proves capable, that makes it more likely that Ryan Lindgren will be gone with his cap hit added to the possible cap space.
Really good post by SkjeiStadium in my prior blog: If you believe that Laf is overpaid, I am not sure what to tell you. The deal is more than fair and should age extremely well. Laf is a leader now and a future leader of this team. He has all the skills to be a 40-goal, maybe 90-point scorer down the road. For now, look for a rise in the 60-70 point range with more to come. His role on this team, coupled with the talent around him, is a mild impediment to hit that level of production. Down the road, that won't be the case
I'm not the best at digging up stats, but from what I found if Laf signs for $7.6M, there will only be 4 players that make less than him that had more 5v5 points between last year and the beginning of this year:
Laf has 49 5v5 points, tied with Marner, Nylander and Max Domi. Domi makes $3.75M so you could include him in this list if you want.
Ehlers and Johnston are due new deals next year, which would presumably be in the same range if not higher than $7.6M
Stutzle and Raymond who are often compared to Laf and would both be paid higher have 46 5v5 points in a similar amount of games and Jack Hughes has 38 points in 17 less games
All this to say what we already know: this would be an incredible deal for the Rangers.
4) Rempe demoted It was only a matter of time before that happened. You can break that demotion into several reasons, some of which make sense and others are comments just to be argumentative.
UPDATE: Matt Rempe has been assigned to the Hartford Wolf Pack.
Rempe trained this offseason traversing the country to get better, no one questions that. He was a story last season and the hype was overdone. Rempe was limited by the officials, which then.impacted his usage by Lavy. That then has become the new story by some, that Lavy doesn't like him. It's more so sending him out there at times is a detriment. Rempe has to be smarter, and he always wasn't the case, but his size made him a target.
Rempe was outplayed in camp. Adam Edstrom deserved a roster spot. Jonny Brodzinski did as well. Sam Carrick was signed and he has brought exactly what the team wanted and needed, both physically and between the dots. Jimmy Vesey getting injured afforded Rempe a chance, but he didn't take advantage of it. When he played, which was minimal, which was on Lavy as well, he failed to impress or force his way into the lineup.
Colin Stephenson wrote this in today's Newsday, evidencing why Edstrom and Carrick belong together in the lineup. Who the third is down the road is up in the air. My view is that Vesey ends up getting the spot when he returns, but Brodzinski has been solid to date.
According to data culled by NaturalStatTrick.com, Edstrom and Carrick have been on the ice together at five-on-five for 54:33 this season. In that time, they have outscored opponents 2-0 and have a 34-24 advantage in scoring chances.
Continually scratching Rempe did little to help him. He needs to play and play a lot to regain his prior year form and improve. If he can do that, and the jury has to be considered out on that, despite what we saw last year, he could work his way back up.
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