The NHL Draft accomplishes a difficult feat. It satisfies our desire for immediate gratification (help is on the way!) while accommodating our obsession with reverse engineering the past to fit our post-hoc wisdom. The Devils have the center position locked up for the next decade! In 2015, everyone knew the Coyotes made an irreversible mistake when they took Dylan Strome over Mitch Marner!
The Draft also underscores what NHL organizations currently value. News flash: archetypes have changed this decade. Stay-at-home bruising defensemen like Erik Gudbranson and Dylan McIlrath, both drafted in the top ten in 2010, are all but obsolete. A forward’s size may not matter – thanks to rule changes – especially if that player has all-world speed and puck skills. The NHL Draft is a Rorschach test for 31 franchises. Through their picks, they tell us how they see the hockey world and we get to ruminate on what that means.
For Tampa Bay, I’ve listed a few players who in mock drafts are projected to be selected by the Lightning, and discuss their fit.
Ville Heinola, D
With Braydon Coburn signing a two-year extension, the Lightning could have a timetable for when they’d ideally thrust Heinola into a role in the defensive group. The experts’ view on Heinola seems to be that he offers limited offensive ability, but his hockey sense and intelligence help compensate for his lack of size. He is mobile, but not a burner. Fair enough. Sounds like Matt Grzelcyk, and frankly, that is a good use of a late first-round pick if that is the outcome.
Like the Blues, Grzelcyk’s Bruins did a really nice job of constructing rosters whose defensive group could withstand the grueling regular and post seasons. The Bruins lost Kevan Miller for the season with a fractured kneecap but could plug in Connor Clifton because of their organizational depth. The Blues survived the conference finals and part of the Cup final without Vince Dunn because of the same type of deep defensive group. Ultimately, the Lightning want to stockpile defensemen who have the mobility to retrieve the puck in their own end and can act as playmaker in the offensive zone.
As the Lightning anxiously wait for Cal Foote to become NHL-ready so he can be slotted in on the right side to replace Jan Rutta, Heinola’s clock could immediately start ticking as to when he could jump into the team’s starting defensive group. If Heinola is a stud, it could have an effect not just on Coburn’s future and playing time during this new contract, but also how Tampa Bay approaches the upcoming Mikhail Sergachev contract negotiations.
Jakob Pelletier, LW
I thought it would be interesting to identify wingers who had played Canadian juniors and were selected between 21 and 30 starting at the 2012 NHL Draft and finishing with the 2016 NHL Draft. The results are shockingly grisly: Tanner Pearson (2012), Emile Poirier (2013), Hunter Shinkaruk (2013), Morgan Klimchuk (2013), Ryan Hartman (2013), Nikita Scherbak (2014), Nikolay Goldobin (2014), Josh Ho-Sang (2014), John Quenneville (2014), Travis Konecny (2015), Anthony Beauvillier (2015), Nick Merkley (2015), Julien Gauthier (2016), Max Jones (2016).
Does this tell us anything? Sort of, but first there are caveats. It is a small sample size based on narrow parameters, and also it is hard to hit on forwards in the late first round. That said, one thing that bears mentioning is that one of the reasons these forwards were drafted that high is because they flashed the same offensive potential that Jakob Pelletier demonstrated this past season with the Moncton Wildcats. So, while 89 points in 65 games looks dazzling, it is basically a requisite for any winger who is selected this high that he just torched the junior season offensively. To wit, Goldobin racked up 94 points for the Sarnia Sting in 67 games during his draft year.
Couple Pelletier’s stats with his short stature and the mind drifts toward whether Pelletier could be another draft steal. What I like about this pick is the potential. Pelletier’s skill level is purportedly high enough that he could play as a top-six forward. And it would be up to the Lightning to develop him in a way that accentuates his talents but resonates for the squad. There is certainly room. Ondrej Palat’s impact is dwindling by the minute and the Lightning do not have any other natural left wingers.
Nils Hoglander, LW
The Lightning are trying to design a roster where no opponent should feel safe sheltering its weakest defenseman against any of the Lightning’s depth players. The emergence of Mathieu Joseph, and some of his spectacular plays on the third and fourth lines, seemed like the fullest manifestation of that ethos.
But when the Bolts cratered in the postseason, their role players proved feckless. The Lightning have a propensity to draft and pursue undersized forwards, and whether Nils Hoglander and Pelletier can succeed will depend on whether they can survive and thrive in congested areas. To be fair, it was not just the small forwards for the Lightning who struggled. The Lightning had some big bodies on their fourth line, but against Columbus they failed to control the puck and forecheck, and when they did establish possession in the offensive zone they had difficulty wriggling past the Blue Jackets’ box outs.
Would Hoglander’s vision and poise with the puck wreak havoc on the opposite coach’s strategy? Possibly. I like that last year he played in the Swedish Hockey League as a 17-year-old. Watching him buzz around on and off the puck in highlights does flash Mats Zuccarello’s likeness.
Friday is only the beginning. But the Lightning’s selections in their first draft with Julien BriseBois as king will be revealing.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
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