The Rangers, who as of last night were considered a long-shot to sign Artmei Panarin, signed the unrestricted free agent, beating out their subway rivals for the winger. In addition, on Day 1 of free agency, New York dealt Jimmy Vesey to the Sabres for a third-round pick in 2021. Finally, as of 4pm today, the other moves made by the Blueshirts were the signing of free agent forwards Greg McKegg and Danny O’Regan, each likely for depth at Hartford, though McKegg could get a shot at filling a bottom-six role.
As the morning unfolded, while the reporting still was the that the Islanders were in the lead, some whispers started to come out that the Rangers were not dead yet. As Panarin had turned down a reported eight-year, $96 million dollar offer from the Blue Jackets, the Islanders were rumored to have made Panarin an offer of a seven-year deal worth $12-$12.5 million per season. Yet, despite the confirmation of signings such as Joe Pavelski and Matt Duchene, no such word had come out about Panarin, lending home that he was still in play. Further evidence that the Blueshirts might be a player was in the news that Vesey went to Buffalo, freeing up $2.275 million in cap room.
Vesey came to the Rangers as a unsigned college free agent and the fanbase, including myself, likely had unreal expectations. He wasn't a top line forward and could occasionally succeed on the second line, but really fit best on the third. Vesey posted consistent 16-, 17- and 17-goal outputs in his three seasons with the Rangers, but needed and was ready for a change of scenery. The Blueshirts need to clear up cap room and clearly didn't view Vesey as someone they wanted to sign long-term. Vesey may get the chance to skate with Jack Eichel, which should boost his chances for a good contract as a UFA after this season.
Word came out not long after 12noon, the "official start of free agency," that Panarin had agreed to a deal with the Rangers. Darren Dreger reported that Panarin left money on the table, which based upon what he signed for and the rumored offer from the Islanders, he clearly did. That "discount" might have been as high as almost a million dollars, impacted by a handful of factors.
Of the $8,769,391 remaining under the cap, per the above, the majority of that, possible $7.5-8 million will go to Trouba. In order to sign Brendan Lemieux, Pavel Buchnevich and Anthony Deangelo, salary must be cleared. This could mean dealing Chris Kreider, who is slated to make $4.625 million this season, though that won't be enough, Vlad Namestnikov, making $4 million, and/or Ryan Strome, at $3.1 million are clearly at risk, The same can be said be said for possible buyouts of Kevin Shattenkirk at 6.65 million for two more seasons or Brendan Smith, $4.35 mil for the same term length, though I think it's more likely that Smith goes rather than 'Kirk. Marc Staal, at $5.7 mil for two more years, also could be in play, though like several others, his NMC makes him difficult to move. Lots of chatter will be the norm for the next several weeks, since unless someone like Staal is going on LTIR for the season, cap room must be freed up to sign everyone. Look for arbitration to be elected for at least one of the RFA, opening up the second buyout period.
New York has a hole at the 2c. For now, that spot likely be filled by Strome. However, in the future, Filip Chytil or possibly Kappo Kakko could get a chance. In the future, if the Rangers want to keep Chytil and/or Kappo at wing, finding someone for that spot will be a major key. Moving forward, figuring out the lines will also be key. But if Kreider (headed to unrestricted free agency next summer) or Pavel Buchnevich (now a restricted free agent with arbitration rights), remain, that allows the kids time to grow. In the future, New York will need to determine if keeping as both is redundant with the presence of Panarin, Kappo, Kravtov and Chytil. Though, having one or two of those on the third line lengthens the lineup substantially.
Some of the driving factors for Panarin opting to sign with the Rangers were:
Reported on both Sportsnet and TSN, Panarin's wife played a significant role in him choosing the Rangers over the Islanders, or Manhattan over Long Island/Brooklyn.
NYR president John Davidson turns the knife on Islanders about Artemi Panarin: "We know he wants to be here in New York, specifically with the Rangers."
Jacob Trouba wanted to come to New York because of the career opportunities for his wife, who is completing her residency. in Panarin's case, it's unclear what the specific driving factor was, but his wife played a role in the decision. JD threw a little shade on the opposition, starting what several felt on the blog and on twitter, that Broadway is the destination that all should seek and not other locales, even those that are also in the five boroughs.
Artemi Panarin (7x11.6m with NYR) is an elite driver of 5v5 offence with a very good shot, a very good penalty differential, and is very slightly above average defensively. Power-play impact also good. pic.twitter.com/RZvMIyibA1
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) July 1, 2019
One of the biggest game-breakers available, Artemi Panarin, has chosen the New York Rangers. He's a possession driving player who creates plays using his skill to control the puck all over the ice #NYRpic.twitter.com/o2dsJ5v23s
In 322 NHL games with the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets, the righty-shot has 116 goals and 320 points. In 27 career playoff games, he has nine goals and 26 points. Last season, the 27-year-old undrafted forward led the Columbus with 87 points (28 goals, 59 assists) in 79 regular-season games last season and had 11 points (five goals, six assists) in 10 Stanley Cup Playoff games to help them sweep Tampa Bay in the first round to win a playoff series for the first time. Panarin is a top-winger, and while he may not be viewed as elite, he is clearly at worst in that next tier.
Ken Campbell in the Hockey News summarized where New York is very well: "With the addition of Trouba on defense and Kaapo Kakko with the second overall pick and the Rangers have become a serious threat, if not in the short-term, definitely in the long term. They’ll certainly be better on the wing with Panarin, Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov coming on board. Certainly the prospect of Mika Zibanejad centering Panarin and Kakko on the top line is an exciting one." Add in the acquisition of Adam Fox from Carolina and the future pipeline of players, including several we saw at the Development camp last week, and the future appears to be very bright at Broadway.
Alison Lukan added in The Athletic roundtable: "He’s (Panarin) in the top one percent in the league in zone exits and he sits in the 99th percentile for successful zone entries. And it’s not just moving the puck where Panarin excels, he’s a creative playmaker who ranks in the top one percent for shot assists (setting up his teammates for shots of their own)." Dom Luszczyszyn added: "Panarin is one of the league’s best players (my model has him rated as the league’s eighth-best winger) and is young for an unrestricted free agent. The contract is close to fair market value for what he brings to the table, and that’s an elite offensive skill set as one of the game’s strongest puck-handlers. July 1 is a day where teams make many costly mistakes – signing an elite player to a fair deal likely won’t be one of them." His seven-year projection has Panarin with a market value of $80.4, which is right around for what New York signed him.
The rebuild was accelerated today with the signing of Panarin. Work still needs to be done, but adding an elite winger certainly helps take New York to the next level. It's a fun time to be a Rangers fan and the future is bright.
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