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On James Neal regression and David Rittich's next contract |
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Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
1) There's been a lot of talk about James Neal working feverishly on his conditioning this summer in effort to be more productive in 2019-20 and beyond. While nice to see – spending time with fitness freak Gary Roberts certainly can't hurt – I don't think that'll be reason for a better campaign. At least not the main one. As much as anything, I think Neal stands to benefit from more puck luck.
He scored on just 4.63% of his 5v5 shots last season. Previously, that number had never dipped below 9.15%. Had he shot that last season, Neal would have scored five more goals at 5v5. That's a pretty significant difference, especially over just 63 games.
His on-ice numbers also tanked. The Flames scored on 7.16% of the 5v5 shots with Neal out there, well below his average of 8.87% from 2011-18. Again, average would have pushed his on-ice numbers up an additional five goals. That would have given him an extra few chances to find the scoresheet, and a positive goal differential on the year.
The almost inevitable spike in percentages alone should add to his outputs next season. If a full summer of hard training makes any sort of difference as well, the Neal we see could be closer to the 2017-18 version than the one we saw last season.
Perhaps GM Brad Treliving is smart to give him another go rather than dealing him for another poisonous contract.
2) I can't help but think the Jordan Binnington contract (two years, $4.4 million per) is good news for the Flames and their efforts to keep the price down – below Mikko Koskinen money – for David Rittich.
I know it's not the perfect comparison. Rittich has played parts of two seasons while Binnington only debuted this past year. However, the sample size is very similar if we include Binnington's playoff games. Their numbers? Not so much.
I realize Binnington's sample is over the best run imaginable while Rittich's includes highs and lows from two years. With that said, it's hard to argue Rittich deserves more when his numbers are a) significantly worse and; b) Binnington stood out in high-leverage situations while helping lead his team to a Stanley Cup.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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