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Thursday Think Tank: It's All About the Money

July 18, 2019, 10:25 AM ET [25 Comments]
Trevor Shackles
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
You can follow me on Twitter @ShackTS

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It’s all about money

Every trade the Senators make has to be viewed through a financial perspective. Yes, they will acquire players that they like such as Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Brown, Tyler Ennis, and Ron Hainsey, but trades will only be made if they make sense financially, and that is simply unsustainable for an NHL franchise.

Think about all the trades that Dorion has made over the past few years. Zack Smith, Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone, Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Mika Zibanejad, and Dion Phaneuf. All of those players were moved in transactions where the Senators either shed salary or barely added salary but waited until bonuses were paid so that they could give a draft pick in order to not pay more. There have only been a handful of trades where Ottawa actually took on salary (not just cap hit), and even those were for short-term transactions.

Eugene Melnyk loves players who have a lower salary than their cap hit, and it’s so obvious why this Smith for Anisimov trade happened. It’s impossible to look at any trade without wondering what the financial motive is for it because that’s become more important for this franchise right now.

Avoidable problems

One of the main reasons why Ottawa has wanted to move Zack Smith for the past year is due to his cap hit of $3.25M. His current contract has a term of four years, and just after the first one, the Senators were looking to ship him out. His extension was signed in the middle of the 2016-17 season, which was one year after his 25-goal campaign, but that 2015-16 season clearly influenced the front office’s decision to keep him around for a hefty price. If only his immediate decline could have been predicted...



Keep in mind, that tweet is from the beginning of last season, and an updated one would include a SH% of 8.9%, which is just below his career average (and much lower than his 15-16 output). It’s almost as if the front office doesn’t understand how regression works, as Smith was never going to be a consistent goal scorer. His contract was never horrendous, as $3.25M is not crippling, but he has always been a player that is worth somewhere in the range of $2M or so. The Senators didn’t have to sign Smith to the deal that he is on right now, and all the Anisimov trade did was somewhat “undo” a past mistake. But it was a mistake that didn’t have to be made.

Options for Colin White

White is still an RFA and there haven’t been any rumours about what kind of contract he will be getting. I’m guessing that he will be getting a bridge contract, as the Senators typically go that route with their young player unless they are clearly a star such as Erik Karlsson. I would love for them to bet on White on a longer-term deal for five or six seasons on a smaller cap hit, but I’m not sure White is willing to do that. Furthermore, I’d like to see what he can do on a much worse offensive team next season without Stone or Duchene.

A four-year deal is not happening since he would become a UFA at the end of it. Five or six years would probably be too long for the Senators liking, so two or three years is the most likely. Three years from now, White should be a well-established NHLer, and they will probably have to pay him even more in 2022 than they would have to pay him in 2021, so I’m willing to bet that they end up settling on a two-year bridge deal.

White could still easily be very good as soon as this coming season, meaning he will be expensive at the end of his next deal, but I’d rather pay him in two years as opposed to three. I’m guessing that he will get around $2.25-$2.5M on his contract.

Ron Francis had a better job lined up

Ottawa was linked to Ron Francis in their search for a POHO, although he apparently declined at the time. That search has seemingly gone dormant for some reason, but that’s a story for a different day. Francis probably didn’t want to work in Ottawa anyway, but he must have also known that he was being considered for the GM position for the new Seattle team:



Francis gets a much better job as he has a fresh start in Seattle, and he was able to avoid the tire fire that is the organization run by Melnyk. Good for him.

Another goaltender

The Senators signed yet another goaltender, although this time it was an AHL signing:



However, as Murray notes, he will almost surely be playing the entire season in the ECHL. If we assume that Mike Condon is in LTIR purgatory, the NHL goalies will be Craig Anderson and Anders Nilsson, the AHL ones will be Marcus Hogberg and Filip Gustavsson, and the ECHL ones will be Joey Daccord and Alex Dubeau. Hopefully Daccord will be able to get some games in the AHL and Hogberg will be able to play in the NHL though, as they are both slotted in a level below where they should be considering their ages.

With Kevin Mandolese and Mads Søgaard also in the system, Ottawa has a ton of goalies right now.
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