Quick Hits: July 20, 2019
1) Yesterday, the New York Rangers signed recently acquired defenseman Jacob Trouba to a seven-year contract that carries an $8 million average annual value (AAV), paying out a total of $56 million over the life of the contract. Why was Trouba able to pull down so much? It's because he was arbitration eligible this summer (with a hearing date scheduled for later this month) and, even more importantly, would otherwise have become an unrestricted agent next summer.
Thus, in essence, the Rangers paid UFA market value -- which is almost always inflated for in-demand players -- right now in order to lock up Trouba for the long haul. There were no discounts given in exchange for the security of the long-term deal, but that was clearly the only way the Rangers were going to be able to get the deal done. It was fundamentally the same thing that the Flyers had to do in order to get Kevin Hayes under contract, except that Hayes would have been a UFA this summer instead of next.
Whether it's the trade market for desired players who have remaining term or the free agent market, your team is going to have to pay either in assets or cap space allotment to bring in such players from the outside. Overpays are part of the cost of doing business in those markets.
2) As soon as Trouba signed, some Flyers fans immediately panicked about what it would mean for the Flyers' negotiations with restricted free agent Ivan Provorov. The answer: Trouba's signing will have little to no effect on Provorov's negotiations.
The contract market place is driven by leverage. Provorov does not yet have arbitration rights (that status would come next summer for the first time) nor is he close to attaining unrestricted free agent rights (to be specific, four summers away). The only leverage that agent Mark Gandler holds with Provorov -- since the "KHL threat" has largely dissipated -- is to threaten a holdout once training camp and the regular season start.
Provorov's marketplace is being driven by what he ultimately gets versus what a pair of fellow unsigned restricted free agents -- Boston's Charlie McAvoy and Columbus' Zach Werenski -- receive. All three teams and each of the players' respective agents are waiting for someone else to make the first move. So far, no one has.
While the Provorov camp may be eyeing something similar to the deal that 2014 first-overall draft pick Aaron Ekblad received from the Florida Panthers in his second NHL contract, the Flyers could cite what Seth Jones (who had less leverage at the time, and who is now underpaid relative to comparable defensemen) signed for in his second contract.
The solution to finding a workable number for both sides may be a bridge deal for Provorov. The sticky part will be finding a term that works for both sides. A term that is potentially more beneficial to the Provorov camp "betting on Ivan's future market value" may or may not be agreeable to the Flyers side, and vice versa. Here is what different contract lengths mean in a practical sense:
* One-year deal: This would be the smallest raise from Provorov's ELC with him coming off a down year in his third NHL season but it would mean Provorov has arbitration rights for the first time as an RFA again next summer.
* Two-year deal: This is a common term in bridge deals; a potential precursor to an inflationary long-term third contract if the player performs as both he and the team expect. A more substantial, but not astronomical raise, is the typical cap-related price bump.
* Three-year deal: Somewhat similar to the two-year bridge in likely cap hit terms, except that it would end with an arbitration-eligible Provorov being one year away from unrestricted free agency.
* Four-year deal: Four years of cost certainty for the Flyers without arbitration-driven concerns but the deal would walk Provorov directly to unrestricted free agency. At this point, it ceases to be a bridge contract.
* Five-year deal: At five years, Provorov is giving up a year of unrestricted free agency and the price tag expands accordingly.
* Six-plus: Lots of security for Provorov if Philly is where he wants to be for the long haul. A very high price tag for the Flyers but a potential savings if he blossoms from a good NHL defenseman to a great one into the prime years of his career.
To reiterate, every term has a price point. Two years is the most common compromise term on bridge deals; that was the term on the recent Travis Sanheim deal. There is shared risk on both sides. Provorov, as the Flyers No. 1 defenseman on the depth chart, has more leverage than the Sanheim side did, because Sanheim only started to truly establish himself at the NHL level over the last season after an up-and-down rookie year that ended on a high note down the stretch after a temporary demotion back to the AHL.
Gandler has a reputation for being one of the NHL's most aggressive agents in driving a hard bargain. He likes to maximize whatever leverage he has on behalf of a client and is not moved by a team's salary cap considerations or other roster needs. However, the Moldovan-born, New Jersey based graduate of Columbia University Law School -- who has come to specialize in representing Russian players -- is also said to prioritize the happiness of his clients with their playing situations. If the player wants to stay, Gandler will make the best possible deal he can that also keeps the player where he wants to be. If the player ultimately wants to explore the possibility of going elsewhere, Gandler will make it so.
The long and short of it is this: although Gandler handles all the negotiations and Provorov stays out of it, the player does have some say here. As long as he wants to be a Flyer for the long haul -- which Provorov said was the case at his exit day press conference in Voorhees and then was on the ice shooting pucks a couple weeks later on the same day that Alain Vigneault was announced as the new Flyers head coach -- he will be. But his contract negotiations are the thorniest on both sides of the table, because there will be gambles on each side regardless of what it is ultimately signed.
3) If the Rangers were, in fact, competing with the Flyers and Panthers for the services of Russian winger Anton Burdasov, that door may have closed yesterday. The Trouba signing put the team roughly $900,000 over the NHL's $81.5 million salary cap ceiling. The team will need to pare down some salary by October and is not really in position to add another player.
Neither the Panthers ($4.7 million of room under the ceiling with just 18 likely NHL roster players under contract at present) or Flyers ($13.4 million of space available but restricted free agents Travis Konecny and Provorov still unsigned) are in great cap shape, either, in terms of adding additional players of note.
Actually, much of the NHL is in the same boat. A slew of teams are in danger of being maxed out or needing LTIR allowances (if applicable) once they get their full roster under contract. Two clubs (Vegas and the Rangers) are already over the cap.
4) My three-part "systems" series on the Flyers new coaches, their hiring, and their system-related philosophies is now online at the Flyers official website. Thank you to Alain Vigneault, Mike Yeo and Michel Therrien for their generosity with their time this past week. Here are direct links to all three articles in the series:
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Alain Vigneault on Systems Prep and Team Identity
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Michel Therrien on Forwards and Power Play
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Mike Yeo on Defense and Penalty Kill
5) Today in Flyers History: On July 20, 1995, the Flyers signed veteran shutdown center Joel Otto to a three-year contract as an unrestricted free agent. The Flyers had been bidding against a divisional rival -- the New York Rangers -- for Otto's services. New York, which had just been swept by the Flyers in the second round of the playoffs, specially wanted Otto as a defensive answer to reigning Hart Trophy winner Eric Lindros. With Mario Lemieux and the Penguins also in the Eastern Conference and the reigning Stanley Cup champion New Jersey being in the same division as Philly and the Rangers, Otto was in high demand. The Flyers won out in the end, and Otto had two strong seasons before an injury-riddled and declining final year in the NHL before he retired.
6) July 20 Flyers Alumni birthday: Terry Murray (1950), Murray Craven (1964), Nick Cousins (1993).
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