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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our thoughts on the trade that saw James Neal shipped to Edmonton in exchange for Milan Lucic (and a conditional 3rd round pick).
Todd Cordell
There are a lot of layers to this one.
Neal carries higher upside and is more likely to bounce back offensively. With that said, it's fair from a certainty and he brings *nothing* to the table if the goals aren't there. Lucic, at least, is still a plus-defender and ranked 7th in the league in hits.
Neal's contract is more friendly if it ever comes to a buyout. If the Oilers were to do it now – I doubt they will, but play along – they'd clear $3.83M annually for the first four years, although there'd be a $1.9M hit for the four to follow. Buying out Lucic would, on average, save $1.25M for the first four years. Should the Oilers ever *really* need a good chunk of cash, having Neal on the roster as opposed to Lucic will be more beneficial.
I understand why each team made the deal and you could make a case for either side as winners. Lucic carries a higher floor in terms of value and, now, a lesser cap hit (Flames are paying him $5.25M, as opposed to $5.75M for Neal). Good for them.
Neal is the better bet to score goals and he will probably be put in every position to do so given Edmonton's lack of talent on the wings. Good for them.
I'll give the slight edge to the Oilers because Neal is easier to dump than Lucic if it comes to that point.
Sean Maloughney
I think this is an absolute win for the Edmonton Oilers. Lucic was producing at a 4th line rate for Edmonton and was showing no signs of turning things around. Neal meanwhile has done some okay things at 5 on 5 and should at least provide some third line scoring.
The buyout options make this much more appealing however. Lucic was essentially buyout proof with a NMC to boot. Neal meanwhile could be bought out at any time with a cost of under 2 million per year. All in all this was a great move by Holland.
James Tanner
Only the Oilers could get out of the Lucic contract (which is among the league's worst) and somehow make their team worse in the process.
While much is being made about the buy-out of Neal's contract being easier, the numbers put forth in Todd's article today are pretty insane, so buying out Neal wasn't really an option anyways.
The fact is both these players are past their prime, but Lucic is at least useful if he doesn't score goals, while Neal no longer appeared to be an NHL player last season. I wouldn't want either player on my team at this point, but if I had to have one, it would be Lucic. The Flames actually save money here and get the best player. Oh my god the Oilers are terrible. Do you know the only team in the NHL in a worse position than the Oilers? The team Ken Holland used to run. I am so sorry to the fans of this team. My god. What a failure!
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