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Predicting Anthony Beauvillier's contract

July 20, 2019, 5:46 PM ET [37 Comments]
Ben Shelley
New York Islanders Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
While The New York Islanders locked up most of their free agents before July 1, Anthony Beauvillier is the last roster regular still in need of a new contract (you could maybe count Michael Dal Colle here too).

It’s likely we see a bridge-deal for Beauvillier with a two or three year term. The Islanders wouldn’t want to go long-term based on the risk factor unless it’s a low number, while Beauvillier wouldn’t want to get locked in to a long-term deal at a low AAV.

To find a fair AAV, we can look at three-year deal comparables. Kasperi Kapanen, Ondrej Kase and Oliver Bjorkstrand all landed three year deals, which work out to a range of about $2.55M to $3.20M per year when adjusted to the 2019-20 salary cap. Each averaged between 40-50 points per 82 games in their contract year, while Beauvillier had just 28 points, likely putting Beauvillier below that range.



That being said, Beauvillier is likely to come in higher than Nick Ritchie and Lawson Crouse who both have an AAV slightly higher than $1.5M. Each had similar contract year point totals to Beauvillier, ranging between 25 and 30 points per 82, but each had a much lower career points per 82 average, with Ritchie at 26 and Crouse at 19, while Beauvillier has averaged 33.1 career points per 82.

Some good comparables for a three-year deal would be Radek Faksa and Josh Anderson. Faksa had 29.5 career points per 82 and 33.8 points per 82 in his contract year before signing at $2.2M per year, which is equal to about a $2.4M AAV today. Anderson, on the other hand, had a 29 career points per 82 average and a 30.5 points per 82 average in his contract year, which got him $1.85M per year, equal to about a $2M AAV today. This is the likely range for Beauvillier.

So if Beauvillier takes a three-year deal, look for it to come in between $2M to $2.4M. If it’s a two-year deal, it’ll likely be on the lower end of the scale, either right at $2M or $100,000 to $200,000 below.


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