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Can the Canucks beat their Vegas projection and sneak into the playoffs? |
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Vegas oddsmakers have set their points projections for NHL teams for the 2019-20 regular season. Take a look:
My first reaction when I saw the Canucks at 88.5 points was "Eeep! That's not a #TeamPlayoffs result."
But then I went back and looked at the last four seasons:
2015-16: 75 points
2016-17: 69 points
2017-18: 73 points
2018-19: 81 points
If the Canucks got to 88 or 89 points next season, that'd be about the same-sized jump that they took last year. Is that a reasonable expectation?
I think this year's upgrades are more substantial. Last season, Vancouver notoriously started the season with the same eight defensemen and two goaltenders that had been 26th in the league in goals against in 2017-18.
Goaltending was upgraded with a strong season from Jacob Markstrom and Anders Nilsson's eventual replacement by Thatcher Demko, and the defense gradually changed shape as Michael Del Zotto and Erik Gudbranson were shipped out. Those tweaks were enough for the team to move to 18th defensively.
This year, the D will look different right off the bat, with Derrick Pouliot and Ben Hutton out the door and Tyler Myers, Jordie Benn and Quinn Hughes all slotting in as regulars. If Markstrom can maintain his form and Demko is healthy and plays a regular role as backup, it's much easier to imagine significant improvement on the back end this year.
Up front, last year's changes on opening night were the additions of Elias Pettersson and Jay Beagle, plus Tyler Motte sticking around, with injured Antoine Roussel and healthy scratch Tim Schaller waiting in the wings. Gone since the end of the previous season—the Sedins, Sam Gagner, Jussi Jokinen and Nic Dowd.
I'd forgotten that Brendan Leipsic was on the 2018-19 opening roster—he lasted 17 games before being put on waivers and claimed by L.A. Darren Archibald also got moved out after playing just nine games with the Canucks last season.
Daniel and Henrik's departure was the main reason why most of the experts believed that Vancouver would fall even farther last season.
Fair enough. Even after everything he'd done in Sweden the previous year, nobody could have foreseen what a game-changer Pettersson would be.
Over the course of last season, the Canucks successfully added Josh Leivo and Tanner Pearson to their forward ranks; J.T. Miller and Micheal Ferland have followed this summer, essentially replacing the departed Markus Granlund and Ryan Spooner.
Even with Pettersson's heroics, the Canucks tied with New Jersey for 25th in offense last season. In a year where offense increased league wide, they scored just one more goal than they did in 2017-18, when they finished 26th.
Without the Sedins, the power play suffered. Tied for ninth with a 21.4 percent success rate in 2017-18, it dropped to 22nd last season, clicking at 17.1 percent. In terms of actual goals, that was a drop of 10, from 53 with the Sedins to 43 last season.
What do you think? With their personnel upgrades, will the Canucks meet or exceed the eight-point jump they made in the standings last season? Assuming Brock Boeser gets signed—which still seems likely—I think it's possible.
When it comes to determining playoff positioning, the next step in the exercise is to see where the oddsmakers rank everybody else.
First—the Pacific Division, where the Canucks slot into fifth place:
1. Vegas - 103.5
2. Calgary - 96.5
3. San Jose - 94.5
4. Arizona - 93.5
5. Vancouver - 88.5
6. Edmonton - 85.5
7. Anaheim - 80.5
8. Los Angeles - 74.5
Add in the Central Division teams, though, and the outlook gets bleaker. I've listed the teams in order of projected points, but also broken down where they'd land in a playoff race.
P1. Vegas - 103.5
C1. Colorado - 100.5
C2. Nashville - 97.5
C3. Winnipeg - 96.5
P2. Calgary - 96.5
WC1. St. Louis - 96.5
WC2. Dallas - 96.5
P3. San Jose - 94.5
9. Arizona - 93.5
10. Chicago - 90.5
11. Vancouver - 88.5
12. Edmonton - 85.5
13. Minnesota - 84.5
14. Anaheim - 80.5
15. Los Angeles - 74.5
Based on these numbers, Central Division teams would grab both wild-card spots again. Add in Chicago, and you'd actually have six teams from the Central finishing above Vancouver.
So the Canucks' only chance of making the playoffs would be to finish third in the Pacific. According to these numbers, that'd mean finishing ahead of Arizona—who had a great finish to last season and should be even better with Phil Kessel scoring goals and a healthy Antti Raanta in net—and last year's Western Conference finalists from San Jose.
But...
If you look closely, you'll see that the eight Western teams projected to make the playoffs next year are the same eight that got in this year. With the way the NHL works these days, it's highly unlikely that we'll see that kind of repeat performance.
Compared to last year's actual playoff-team standings, the oddsmakers have baked in improvements for Vegas and Colorado and a small jump for Dallas, while projecting reasonably significant declines for Calgary and San Jose and smaller drops for Nashville, Winnipeg and St. Louis.
All of the non-playoff teams are pegged to improve to some extent, with the Canucks tying the Coyotes for the biggest jump.
Arizona +7.5
Chicago +6.5
Vancouver +7.5
Edmonton +6.5
Minnesota +1.5
Anaheim +0.5
Los Angeles +3.5
Last year, Calgary was the top team in the West with 107 points, Colorado locked down the last playoff spot at 90 and L.A. was the worst, at 71. So that was a 27-point differential among playoff teams and 46 points from first to worst.
The Vegas projection for next season bunches the teams much more closely together, with just a nine-point range among the eight playoff teams. The 29-point differential from first to worst is only a shade bigger than the gap that separated the playoff teams last year.
If they're right, parity is going to be stronger than ever in the Western Conference in 2019-20. And there will be plenty of room for surprises.
Will the Canucks be able to take advantage?
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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