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Bonkers Goalie Market

July 31, 2019, 7:27 PM ET [9 Comments]
Thomas Townsend
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
There are those positions in any sport that can solidify a team as a perennial contender. They are the hardest to fill, most expensive to pay, beloved by the fans and even protected by the rules in some leagues. In football there are quarterbacks, in basketball there are 7' centers in baseball there are ace left-handed pitchers and in hockey there are goalies.

When teams think they have their franchise goalie they do their very best to lock them up for many years. Good examples are Price, Henrik, Quick and Rinne. But, there are examples when teams also think they have their franchise goalie and you get DiPietro, Darling, Bryzgalov and to a lesser extent Schneider and Martin Jones.

Sometimes it works out well and some times it blows up in your face. Here is the list of goalies signed this off season.

July 1

Talbot 1 year $2.75M
Bobrovsky 7 years $10M per year
Mike Smith 1 year $2M
Kinkaid 1 year $1.75M
McElhinney 2 years $1.3M per year
Lehner 1 year $5M
Varlamov 4 years $5M per year
Mrazek 2 years $3.125M per year

July 13
Binnington 2 years $4.4M per year

July 27
Rittich 2 years $2.75M per year

July 29
Vasilevskiy 8 years $9.5M per year

At first glance these contracts look like they are all over the place (and they are). The shortest is 1 year for $1.75M, the longest is 8 years ($9.5M per) and biggest cap hit is $10M per year (for 7 years).

With the exception of McElhinney and Kinkaid, who are obvious back ups, all will be starters or playing for a starting role (in the case of Rittich/Talbot). So why such the wide range of contracts? And more to the point, if I'm a goalie why am I not demanding Bob money?

Goalies are voodoo, I've seen this printed by more than one sportswriter. From year-to-year it is very hard to predict what you are going to get in net. Very few will be consistently great or below average year-over-year. Look at Lehner who was the surprise performer last year. Even Bobrovsky had up-and-down swings in Columbus. He ended on a high note with a great year-end and playoff performance causing many to forget the roller coaster ride he took CBJ fans on.

Other factors include the market for goalies and a teams approach to signing goalies. The amount of above-average-to-great goalies on the market vs. the number of teams looking controls contract values. If there are more 'good' goalies than teams looking you have an over supply and only the top guys get paid player-favorable contracts. The inverse is true when you have a short supply of quality goalies and a large number of teams wanting their services. Goalies on the market in those off seasons get paid no matter how average they are.

There are some teams who just will not sign a goalie long term and for big money. There are some teams who treat the game of hockey like it should be called 'goalie'. But what approach is correct? Over the last 7 seasons in Columbus the Blue Jackets made the playoffs 5 times. Coincidentally, Bob backstopped six of those seasons. One of the seasons they didn't make the playoffs Sergei was injured. Two of those seasons he was the best goalie in the league.

Here are the last 10 Cup champions and their goalies:

2010 Blackhawks, Niemi
2011 Bruins, Thomas
2012 Kings, Quick
2013 Blackhawks, Crawford
2014 Kings, Quick
2015 Blackhawks, Crawford
2016 Penguins, Murray
2017 Penguins, Murray
2018 Capitals, Holtby
2019 Blues, Binnington

Amazingly 3 goalies account for 6 of those 10 Cup wins (Crawford, Quick and Murray). Only one team had 'forgettable' goaltending on their Cup run and that was Chicago. In 2010 Niemi posted a 2.63 goals against average with a .910 save percentage. That was obviously the outlier. Goalie is obviously important to Cup winning teams.

That brings me back to the list of goalie signings this off season. With the exception of Talbot, 10 of the 11 goalies listed were on playoff teams. Six of those were starters. Five of those 6 had at least one good playoff series (the exception was Vasilevskiy). Vas and Bob faced off in round one of the playoffs last year and both got paid big money this off season. Varlamov was the only guy who got a big contract after being displaced as the starter. Smith, Lehner and Mrazek all got less money or less term (or both) than expected after quality seasons.

Eleven starter or starter-ish goalies were signed in the NHL this off-season. Six of those are on new teams. Why didn't the CBJ land one of them? Binnington, Rittich and Vas were all RFAs, so they were out. Bob made it clear he wasn't coming back. Kinkaid and McElhinney both served as back ups in Columbus and are not likely to be starters. Varlamov was too expensive for too long of a term. Mrazek re-signed with his prior team. That leaves Talbot, Smith and Lehner. All were signed to 1 year contracts. Lehner's was expensive at $5M, but the other two were very reasonable. Any of the three could have been offered a 2 year deal and possibly convinced to serve as a bridge goalie in Columbus while either Korpi or Elvis readied as the starter. This would have been the shrewd move. But no move was not made to sign a quality, experienced goalie. This may prove to be a mistake.

My working theory is that Jarmo believes two things. One, it's Korpi's turn. He isn't a prospect any longer and the CBJ need to know how he can handle the starting job. If he isn't up to the challenge they can sign him to a back up contract or cut him loose. Two, the combo of Korpi/Elvis is better and much cheaper than any alternative they had available to them. Does this mean that this combo is better than other tandems in the NHL? No. But, with only 90 games experience between them (all by Korpi) no one can judge how they will perform next year. Most sports writers as picking the CBJ duo as the worst in the NHL. It is an easy pick because of inexperience. Jarmo believes in them as the best option for the CBJ this coming season, but the 2020 crop of UFA goalies is slim, with the best being Holtby (not likely to leave WAS) and Kuemper. If Korpi and Elvis don't work out it could be many seasons before the CBJ can figure out their goalie situation.

Thanks for reading.
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