After a 23 goal 65 point rookie seasons, expectations for Clayton Keller were sky high entering last season.
But after a 9 goal, nearly 20 point drop in production, we are left to wonder which version of Clayton Keller is the one we'll get going forward.
In the NHL roughly 2 points per 60 is good first line production.
Keller posted a 1.96 P/60 as a rookie, but dropped to 1.24 last season, which is pretty bad for a top line player.
The usual culprit is shooting percentage, but that isn't the case here.
As a rookie it was 10.16%
As a sophomore 9.22 %
A bit of a drop, but not much of one.
It's not the power-play either - as a rookie, Keller scored 20 PP points, and last year he had 19.
(Although, it's kind of crazy that he had only 1 PP goal and shot 2% with the man advantage, which is one way we know for sure his point totals will rise).
If we look at Keller's year-to-year 5v5 production, everything is practically the same - shot-attempts, scoring-chances and shots are all slightly down, but not really enough to explain the drastic drop in scoring.
On-ice shooting percentage dropped only 1 percentage point.
Everything was a bit lower in year two, but just not enough to really explain a 20 point drop in production, which leads me to believe it was just a bit of a fluke - just the effects of playing on such an offensively challenged team.
OEl, Galchenyuk, Stepan and Goligoski where Keller's most common linemates - basically the best the Coyotes had to offer. They all had a positive effect on his game, though clearly it's not like he's paired with Patrick Kane or John Tavares.
The year before - other than Galchenyuk - it was pretty much the same guys.
There really is no obvious explanation for Keller's drop in production, which is weird because there almost always is a reason.
He wasn't noticeably worse, just slightly, and it all added up to a significant drop in production.
This is good news because if we can't identify anything, and we add a new elite player for him to play with (Phil Kessel) then I think we can conclude that he's probably going to do much better this year.
Usually you can point to shooting percentage, loser linemates or something, but in this case, I think the team just sucked offensively.
The Coyotes need to find a way to have their top line get over 50% in the major differential stats - that, not individual production, is the true problem.
An NHL game is won or lost on the backs of your elite players, and until the Coyotes develop or acquire a couple more, they aren't going to beat anyone by out scoring them.
If the Coyotes do have success, it will be because of their goalies, but that isn't a recipe for success. The best thing they could do is get players to skate with Kessel and Keller.
But if we're talking hockey pools, I think Keller might be a nice late round steal. High potential, since his 65 point rookie season wasn't based on anything crazy like a massive shooting percentage or a lucky teammate.
If he gets a bit lucky, 75, 85 points is possible. The Coyotes definitely need to upgrade however. Their offense remains a bit of a joke.
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