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Calgary Flames fantasy projections for 2019-20

September 9, 2019, 10:16 AM ET [17 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic recently released his fantasy draft kits for the 2019-20 season. Whether you're a casual player or a fantasy nut, I can't recommend them enough. They're good, cheap, customizable, you can purchase different tiers based on your needs, and a chunk of the profits will be going to charity. 

I know this is not for everyone so, if all you're wondering about is point projections for members of the Calgary Flames, today is your lucky day.

I'm going to post them below and share some thoughts. We'll start up front.

I agree that some points are likely to be trimmed off Johnny Gaudreau's total. He is probably not going to shoot ~15% again and, as a whole, I doubt things go as smoothly as they did a year ago. Still, almost 90 points would be a successful year.

Matthew Tkachuk is another guy unlikely to repeat last season's shooting percentage (16.4%). I know a lot of his shots come from around the net, where he is extremely dangerous, but something more in line with his career average of 13.2% seems more reasonable. I think his playmaking ability, and continued progression as a whole, will keep him in the 70s.

I was surprised to see Elias Lindholm's projection come in at 70. He put up 78 a season ago but that came with a shooting percentage ~five points higher than his career average and *everything* went right. I still think something in the 60s is more realistic, although that'd still be a massive success given his $4.85 million price tag.

If Andrew Mangiapane gets the opportunity he deserves – steady top-9 minutes – he should provide a nice spark and surpass his projection.

Milan Lucic's number sounds about right. The Flames will try to put him in favorable situations but this is the same guy who has recorded 5v5 points at a less efficient rate than Chris Wagner, Ryan Reaves, and Luke Glendening over the last few seasons. His offensive game is toast. Could he provide value defensively and physically? Sure. We're probably looking at ~25 (inefficient) points, though.

Dillon Dube was one of the best, and most efficient, AHL players in his age group last season. It's fair to suggest his ceiling is a fair bit higher than his projection. If he can take a big step forward and hit that, it'll go a long way towards helping the Flames compete for another division title.

To the defense we go. 

Mark Giordano's projection is 20 points below his output last season. That may seem like a lot but I don't think it is. Giordano recorded a point on ~50% of the goals he was on the ice for last season. That almost certainly won't happen again (his IPP was only above 40% in three of 10 years prior to last). He also recorded 32 secondary assists, which is 12 more than his previous career high. Again, he won't be that lucky next season. We could probably play the age card as well (he turns 36 as the season begins). This isn't a slight on Giordano, obviously. If he puts up 50+ points as a 36-year-old, it'll be extremely impressive. And he figures to have a good chance at doing so.

Noah Hanifin has averaged 32 points per 82 games over the last three seasons. At just 22, there is still room for growth but he's probably not going to produce more without more PP opportunity. I don't think he'll get it so 30-35 sounds right.

T.J. Brodie has registered 30+ points in six consecutive seasons. The Flames should be very good offensively once again, Brodie should see 20+ minutes again, and it is a contract year for him. While it's certainly possible, I'm not sure I'd bet on the 29-year-old falling short of the 30-point plateau this year.

With regards to the rest of the defense core, Rasmus Andersson's projection seems a little low. He should see more total ice than a year ago, raising his ceiling. 

Juuso Valimaki, unfortunately, suffered a serious injury and his projection should be wiped as a result.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Hockey-Reference.com

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