The NHL is a very strange league.
The fact that every team, except Ottawa who might be legendarily bad this year, has at least a small chance to surprise and make the playoffs, and further more, that any team who does make the playoffs has a small chance to win it all, makes it an interesting league.
Parity caused by the salary cap, and the random but massive effect goaltending can have makes it so that the NHL - even if you suck - at least allows for some hope your team might get lucky.
The Athletic's Dom Lusczcyszyn - the only person I can find using real math to figure this stuff out - puts the Coyotes playoff chances at one in four.
Considering this is a league driven by star power and elite players - and that the Coyotes are lacking that very much - that sounds reasonable to me.
The Wild Card here is goaltending. The Coyotes could have a couple of duds in net, or they could have the best 1-2 goalie punch in the NHL.
But the reason the Coyotes - despite having one of the deepest teams in hockey - are primed to be horrible again this year is their lack of star power.
Few teams are likely to match their goalies on paper. Few teams have a bottom pairing or bottom six group as good.
But all teams have better stars, and that's the biggest factor.
The team's core of OEL, Dvorak, Keller, Chychrun, Schmaltz, Stepan and Kessel is a great cast if you have a couple of superstars above them.
But they don't.
The Coyotes have potentially several really good B-level stars, but they don't have a single blue-chip franchise player.
Maybe they get lucky with Barrett Hayton.
Maybe they get lucky and the one in four chance comes to fruition.
But probably, the best thing that can happen is that they win the draft lottery.
The weirdest thing about the Coyotes is that they built this team that would be great if it had two franchise players - say Domi and Strome weren't busts - but they don't.
The core needs more.
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