Thanks to everyone who took the time to submit questions to Mike’s Mailbag. We had questions on a wide range of subjects, from the Senators, to the Wild, to the Lightning. Without further ado, here are my answers to your questions:
Sandy the Viking from Sweden asks: What do you think Matt Murray’s new contract will be? 6x6? Gibson got 6.4M x 8.
Goalies are so hard to predict, both from an on-ice results perspective and a contract perspective.
On the one hand, you’re looking at a guy who has already won two Stanley Cups; on the other, this is a player whose 5v5 save percentage ranks 24th out of 45 goaltenders with at least 3,500 5v5 minutes since he took over Pittsburgh’s starting job in 2016-17. Gibson, for what it’s worth, ranks 6th in that same category.
Among the 40 goalies with at least 5,000 all-situation minutes in that same timeframe, Murray ranks 26th in WAR and 15th in WAR/82. Gibson ranks 2nd in both of those categories.
The bottom line: Murray is a fine goaltender. He’s done some great things for the Penguins, as evidenced by the rings on his fingers. Still, committing big dollars to him at this stage seems like a bit of a gamble. I’d be hesitant to go north of Gibson’s contract, and would likely want to have that number be attached to a shorter-term deal. Your 6 x 6 prediction seems to fit with that line of thinking.
All stats cited above are from Corsica.Hockey.
Todd asks: What do you think the Brayden Point contract will look like for the Lightning when he finally signs a deal if he signs a deal?
I do tend to think that this is a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’, but nothing is a guarantee. I think it’s safe to say, in light of the Mitch Marner deal, that the Lightning’s last offer to Point won’t get things done:
The general sense right now seems to be that the team wants to save dollars on a bridge deal, as they did with Kucherov, while the player wants term. Basically, I see this going one of two ways: The Lightning bump up the dollars on a short-term deal, or a long-term deal at a significant dollar value gets done. The nice thing for the Bolts is that Kucherov and Stamkos taking significantly less than market value has set a nice precedent for future negotiations.
To answer your question with a firm (read: meaningless) prediction, I’ll throw out two options: $21M over three years, or $72M over 8 years.
ByfuglienAteMe asks: Do you think any remaining UFAs will start signing PTOs? Could Marleau be done? Phaneuf finished? Who’s there that can still help a team?
I’d be surprised to see guys like Marleau and Phaneuf sign PTOs (less surprised by the idea of Phaneuf doing so, mind you). Marleau, while nowhere near the player he once was, still potted 16 goals last year in Toronto. There will be some GM out there who ignores everything else and signs him to an affordable deal. My guess is that, at this point, he is just trying to figure out what makes sense for him and his family.
As far as your question about who is still out there: Two names that stick out to me are Brian Boyle and Justin Williams.
Williams is easy to address, as he’s indicated that he’s taking a break from hockey for now. I still think he could help the Hurricanes down the stretch by pulling a Mike Fisher-like move and signing later in the year.
Specific to Boyle, TSN has reported that there are a few teams interested that are still trying to clear cap space. I expect that there’s still an appetite in the marketplace for a big guy with leadership skills and experience like Boyle, even if his numbers have fallen off a cliff in recent years.
Gord_Wilson_2.0 asks: Do you see this team ever becoming a contender for an extended period of time (able to retain star players) while Eugene Melnyk owns the team?
I do – I mapped out one path to get there in an earlier blog.
On another note, I think the saving grace for this team might come in the form of the next round of CBA negotiations. Whether those negotiations are imminent (the NHLPA will be announcing their decision on re-opening the CBA tomorrow) or not, my hunch is that the league and its owners are going to target signing bonuses at the first possible opportunity.
Targeting signing bonuses shouldn’t affect the Senators in a material way, as they simply can’t seem to compete with teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Montreal Canadiens when it comes to offering up-front money. If you take that advantage away from teams like Montreal or Toronto, all of a sudden the marketplace becomes a little bit friendlier to the team from Ottawa. It won’t fix the problems completely, but it should provide for more of an opportunity to build a winner.
Greg asks: What is the ideal first line for the Senators?
Tkachuk-White-Batherson
Go young and see what they can do!
Sephiroth asks: Is hockey just an illusion to keep us occupied mentally, in order for God to hid the fact that the earth is flat from us? Serious question, please reply.
Not likely.
Dio asks: Are the Wild going to regret giving big money and movement protection to a guy who is already 30?
I’m really torn on this one – assuming that we’re talking about Jared Spurgeon. This is a really, really good player. But, like you said, he’s already on the wrong side of the aging curve.
The thing with the Wild is that Spurgeon’s contract will be the least of their problems. The Parise and Suter deals are the anchors that are going to keep this team from competing in the short-term, regardless of whether Spurgeon continues to perform at a high level or not.
Minnesota is likely banking on the cap continuing to increase at such a rate that, by the time Spurgeon’s play falls off, the negative impact on their salary structure is negligible. It’s not a bad play given the quality of player we’re talking about.
Probstc asks: Assuming that Smith is a more results oriented coach than Boucher, and plays players based on performance rather than misplaced loyalty, and consider the fact that the Sens have so many players that are theoretically NHL read, why are they going to be so bad? Yes, I do not believe this team will be hoisting the Stanley Cup next year (or the near future), but with the group they have, I believe they can field a balanced team, both in defense and up front. My only concern is in net, but even so I can see this team in the top 20s in the league standings at the end of the season.
A few points in response to this one:
1) Goaltending, which you highlight. I have no idea what we’re going to get there this season, and I imagine that it’ll be tough to compete with the tandem the Senators are going to roll with.
2) The Atlantic Division is very, very strong. Toronto is good. Boston is good. Tampa is good. Florida will be better than they were. Montreal always hangs around. Buffalo has weapons. Detroit is basically the only night off available within the division. Given the concentration of in-division games, it'll be hard for the Senators to climb up the standings.
3) NHL ready and ready to compete in the NHL are two very different things. A replacement level player is technically “NHL ready,” but a roster full of them won’t do much damage in the standings. The Senators are going to have a lot of young players who experience growing pains, and a lot of older players that just aren’t very good. It’s a combination that doesn’t often lead to success.
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Thanks to everyone who took the time to submit questions! I look forward to discussing with you in the comments section.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart was the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz from 2012 to 2015, and has been the Ottawa Senators writer since September 2019. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter. 
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