It is best not to kid ourselves. If Brayden Point misses the start of the season, there will be a yawning void in the Bolts’ lineup. There will be reverberations, and Steven Stamkos, the 1A to Point’s 1B, will surely feel the impact. This is why the Ondrej Palat-Steven Stamkos-Anthony Cirelli line that has been flashed in training camp is so intriguing.

Last season, Stamkos spent the most 5v5 ice time with Palat and Yanni Gourde as his wingers. Somewhat paradoxical considering Stamkos’s prolific scoring totals, the numbers for the trio were disappointing. Astonishingly, of all the Lightning lines that received over 50 minutes at 5v5, Palat-Stamkos-Gourde finished last with -9 Goals Plus-Minus. It wasn’t merely a case of bad shooting luck. Their Corsi Plus-Minus was fourth worst among Lightning forward lines, only ahead of two iterations of Tampa Bay fourth lines.

The reason this line didn’t work is a matter of fit. Palat is a power forward who attempts to win board battles and make plays off the puck. Gourde is a plucky agitator who has good speed and excels around the net. Unfortunately, neither is a deft puck-handler and playmaker, nor are they off-the-puck snipers who can take advantage in transition. Too often the burden was put on Stamkos to ferry the puck up the ice and have to engineer opportunities for himself.

Cirelli and Stamkos played at 3-on-3 and 4-on-4 last year, and their chemistry was apparent. But could Cirelli playing with Stamkos and Palat at 5v5 continue the problems that plagued the Palat-Stamkos-Gourde line last year? Can Cirelli transition from a two-way No. 3 center to a playmaking winger who can cross and drop for Stamkos?

I like the clip below as a perfect way to utilize Stamkos on the rush.



In this four-on-four against Buffalo, Nikita Kucherov lugs the puck from the top of the circle of the Bolts’ defensive zone to a few feet above the top of the right circle in the offensive zone. When he drops the puck to Stamkos, Kucherov pushes back the defensemen, allowing Stamkos to hide behind him and slide into a neat wrister. Asking Cirelli to ape Kucherov, the NHL MVP, in all his glory is laughable, but creating separation for a linemate on the rush is a necessary characteristic for an above-average forward.

To be clear: It is not that Palat and Gourde were incapable of leading an entry, but neither was a threat to score in transition, and they were easily shunted to the perimeter. Cirelli needs to evince speed and puck-handling so that the strong-side defender believes he could be beaten one-on-one, and Cirelli should use the middle of the ice as a springboard for Stamkos to sprint to the outside lane or cut behind Cirelli for the drop pass. Or maybe Cirelli can develop a button-hook much like Point uses so frequently, which would allow Stamkos to stagger his entry and potentially skate in unfettered as the second wave.

Kucherov was a wizard at creating a pocket for Stamkos to slide into on a catch-and-release. Unsurprisingly, when you can move the puck anywhere you want on the ice, it gives your linemates freedom to roam and seize on loose gaps. Which is why, if defenders believe Cirelli’s attack has bite, Stamkos’s options will open up.

Stamkos has demonstrated aptitude not just in his shooting, but in his knack for transporting the puck and making great passes that open up prime scoring chances. Therein lies another important question: Can Cirelli capitalize off of Stamkos’s feeds on the rush and in the slot? Cirelli showed his talent for finishing breakaways last season, and he has impressive acceleration. But can he cut off the puck and bury a shot from the top of the circle? In the offensive zone, Cirelli has a good stick for deflections around the net and excels at retrieval, but with Palat failing to offer a smidge of shooting, Cirelli will need to exhibit an ability to hammer the puck off Stamkos’s feeds in the slot.

While there are unknowns about Cirelli’s skill set, we do know that he has a few dominant traits. He is a viper around the puck and can amplify offensive chances for Stamkos by extending the territorial advantage in the offensive zone. In the clip below, Palat wins the race to the puck in the corner and Stamkos retreats to a quiet space.



That is a sequence that Cirelli and Stamkos can surely replicate. Same goes with this clip against St. Louis, where J.T. Miller wins a one-on-one battle against Jay Bouwmeester and sets up Stamkos in the slot.



If Cirelli is his usual indefatigable self around the puck, Stamkos will be able to spend more time as the F3.

With Point possibly out, the Lightning cannot play Kucherov and Stamkos together without feeling guilty about frontloading their elite talent on one line. If this forces the Lightning to experiment with Cirelli, pushing him into a role with top-six talent earlier in the season, perhaps the Lightning will have an earlier read on what they have. And if the results are positive, one hopes that Lightning management will use that knowledge to get Cirelli’s extension done earlier instead of falling into protracted contract negotiations that could potentially bleed into the season.

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