Quick update. Jonathan Ericsson was indeed waived and Svechnikov recalled. Hoping to get some more information. Thanks to a loyal commenter in the blog I found this out. This could be the first bold move of an Yzerman era Wings team. You can read about it here:
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Ken Kal tweeted out tonight’s roster. Here’s what you’ll see tonight:
So, status quo for Detroit. Vancouver is at 5-3-0 and Detroit is 3-5-0. Jimmy Howard’s save% of .898 and GAA of 3.81 will be pitted against Markstrom’s save% of .932 and GAA of 2.19. These numbers by themselves would not inspire a ton of confidence.
If I go back to the power play and pk “totals”, it’s worse this week than last. Vancouver is still killing penalties at a whopping 92.6% with a power play that is scoring at 15.2%. While the PP number is lackluster, combined with an incredible PK their total is 107.8%. The old school thought being that if both PK and PP added up to 100% you were in good shape. It is clear that this is still a stingy group on special teams.
Detroit’s numbers are bad right now. A 72%PK mixed with a 9.5% PP for a total “number” of 81.5%. What’s shocking is that there are 5 teams with worse power plays right now, and 6 teams with worse pK numbers.
The script hasn’t changed for the better since last week. Vancouver has seen a bump in power play production with a PK that is still incredibly good. Clearly strong play from the goalies have helped. Shy of a miraculous turnaround, Detroit would be best served at full strength tonight.
The eye test on Vancouver is interesting. This team is fast. Their forecheck is relentless. Watching the game vs NYR the other day for 2 periods Vancouver just manhandled the Rangers. Then in the third, there was a shift. New York got behind Vancouver’s forecheck and pinned them down. It wasn’t enough for a victory, but was an eye opener. Vancouver’s absolutely superb goaltending is covering up defensive issues. No one will ever apologize for great goaltending. No one should. But the key to any sort of victory is to slow down Vancouver by keeping them in their own zone.
The danger comes in the Canuck’s ability to transition. A great save at one end leads to a great chance at the other. You have to play one D high. Vancouver, like Toronto, will change a forward while going back to defend. A fresh forward could be as far back as the opposing blue line. Any team that is attacking with 5 players runs the risk that a missed shot can be passed to center ice with a guaranteed breakaway. Phil Kessel used to make his money being that forward. No one can catch a winger fresh of the bench and 40 feet away.
In some ways, I believe Vancouver is executing on what Kyle Dubas wants in Toronto. Speed, speed and more speed. Count on a save, quick transition, and then send 4 players deep on the forecheck. For all his faults, Mike Babcock knows that this system won’t garner long term playoff success. Eventually a stronger team will expose the back end woes (at least typically) and you run out of scoring. Pittsburgh has back to back cups that seem to indicate this may work, but their goalie tandem was superb and their backend doesn’t get quite the respect it deserved.
Detroit has to flip the script at this point. Nothing on the page is going to support their odds at victory. The intangibles, again, have to come out to play. The what ifs. Athanasiou, LARMANZZI, a superb effort in net, etc. there is always hope, but it’s nice when the numbers concur.
Thanks again for reading! Keep the comments coming!
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