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Can the Lightning Exploit the Rangers' Deficiencies?

November 13, 2019, 7:54 AM ET [10 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Lightning are struggling to change. Steven Stamkos lamented as much after the Bolts’ embarrassing loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on October 6th: “We just continue to be the freewheeling team that thinks we can just come into games and win because we’re skilled. We keep falling back into the same old habits that we’ve been doing, that cost us the season we had last year.”

In subsequent contests, the Lightning have made an effort to dominate the territorial advantage and to limit their opponents’ opportunities. Results have been mixed. But one humiliating example of the Lightning relying on their skill to buoy them to victory and watching it backfire was on October 29th, the last time the Bolts played the Rangers.

New York dominated Tampa Bay, winning the contest 4-1 and finishing with 11 High-Danger Scoring Chances to the Lightning’s 5. The Lightning’s only goal came off a bad Rangers line change where Brayden Point teed it up for Nikita Kucherov. Aside from that, it was an ugly performance. The Lightning were plagued by undisciplined play and poor puck management. It was a peculiar night because the Rangers are an ideal opponent for a squad attempting to forge a new identity.

The Blueshirts are dreadful in most statistical categories. They rank last in the NHL in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%), 29th in High-Danger Scoring Chances, and are the worst team in the NHL at controlling shot attempts. Yikes! The Rangers will try to ride out the good times as long as possible, but sooner or later, the poor underlying numbers will quell their postseason hopes.

One interesting change of late is that the Lightning are doing a better job controlling shot attempts. In the first eight games, they ranked 26th in the NHL at commanding shot attempts. After their last seven games, they rank 12th. There has been an uptick in shots flicked on net from all angles, and perhaps as a consequence, the Lightning have seen their 5v5 shooting percentage drop from 10.58 to 8.29.

A positive development from their trip to the Scandinavian Peninsula is that the Lightning found their scoring depth. Tampa Bay also demonstrated an ascetic-like discipline, which allowed them to collect more power-play opportunities than Buffalo. In that matchup from late October when the Bolts and Rangers played, New York got twice as many power-play opportunities and collected their first goal off the man advantage.

The Lightning’s power play was the best in the NHL last year, and their stars spurred the dominance. But the Big Three (Point, Kucherov, Stamkos) have gotten off to a slow start. Stamkos has five goals and hasn’t scored in his last five games. Like Stamkos, Point also hasn’t scored in November, and has only one goal in his last eight games. Point’s linemate Kucherov has two goals in his last five games, but he was held without a goal in the previous six games. Considering how porous the Rangers defense is – they allow 35.9 shots per game – this game could be a welcome antidote to for Tampa Bay’s struggling stars.

One way to ignite the stars is to pair them with a complementary defenseman. The Point-Kucherov duo have played 29 or more minutes with the top four defensemen (Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak, Kevin Shattenkirk) but the only defenseman with whom they control better than 50 percent of the shot attempts is McDonagh. And the metrics with McDonagh are much better. In 35 minutes at 5v5, the Point-Kucherov-McDonagh triumvirate control 57 percent of shot attempts and have a +6 Scoring Chances differential.

Stamkos also has a natural suitor. With Shattenkirk, the Lightning direct 50 percent of shot attempts on net and have a +4 High-Danger Scoring Chances differential in 86 minutes together at 5v5. The numbers with Cernak and McDonagh are dreadful in both metrics, and while Stamkos and Hedman are under 50 percent in commanding shot attempts, they also have a +4 in High-Danger Scoring Chances differential. The Lightning are at home and will have last change. Jon Cooper has the option to make life easier for his forwards by yoking them to defensemen they’ve had success with.

It makes sense. Lack of friction on the breakout gives the star forwards more opportunities to access the offensive zone. On neutral-zone regroups, having a defenseman who can snap a pass through the middle and initiate the entry is vital. With the Lightning, increased engagement on pinches and in transition by the defensemen, and appreciating which forwards sizzle with which defenseman, could be the difference between an enhanced scoring opportunity or a counterattack chance.

One area of concern for the Lightning is the tough season start by Andrei Vasilevskiy. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner has had stretches of strong play, but he has also allowed a few too many stoppable pucks to cross the goal line. The metrics reflect this, as Vasilevskiy has a -0.61 Goals Saved Above Average which puts him 20th among his peers with a minimum of 400 minutes. And he ranks 30th in High Danger Scoring Chances Save Percentage. If the Lightning are trying to make their matchups into low-event games, Vasilevskiy needs to outplay the opposing goaltender.

The Rangers are a hot mess. The rest of the Metropolitan Division has already begun to create separation between the Rangers and their fellow cellar-dwellers, New Jersey and Columbus. Perhaps the most concerning aspect for the Rangers is that they’re in danger of regression with their 5v5 shooting percentage, which sits at 9.32 right now. There is a good chance that shooting percentage sinks to somewhere in the 8s or lower, and if it does, the Rangers’ mediocre goaltending and inability to manage the puck are going to present them with problems. With several days’ rest, Tampa Bay can exact retribution. The Lightning have agency to make quick work of the Rangers.
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